01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bayern München to win66%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Champions League12°12,4 mm51 km/h
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VikingLow block & directvs
Bayern MünchenPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Bayern München (66%)Best value by the model: 1 · Viking @ 24.00 (+267 %)
Viking vs Bayern München · Champions League
1 · Viking 15%X 19%66% Bayern München · 2
15%
19%
66%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Viking vs Bayern München (Champions League, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Viking win 15%, draw 19%, Bayern München win 66%. Expected goals (xG): Viking 1.07, Bayern München 2.38. Most likely score: 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Viking or draw 34%, Bayern München or draw 85%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Viking – Bayern München
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Viking's approach is simple: defend deep and strike quickly. But against Bayern's relentless high press, this strategy will face a stern test. The visitors' 66% model probability suggests they're strong favorites, and their 22-game scoring streak in domestic action underscores their offensive prowess. However, Viking's direct style could exploit any lapses from Bayern's backline, particularly in transition moments.
The expected goals tell a compelling story. Viking, with an average of 1.07 xG, face a daunting task against a Bayern side that averages 2.38 xG per match. The Germans’ ability to control and dominate possession should see them create the lion's share of chances. Yet, Viking's edge in both points (4 vs. Bayern's 3) and xPoints (3.3 vs. Bayern's 2.5) so far suggests they cannot be entirely discounted.
The forecast of 11.5°C with heavy rain might dampen the match's tempo, though this is factored into the model's assessment. With a 67% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring, the numbers favor a lively affair. The most probable scorelines of 1-2 and 0-2 suggest Bayern should emerge victorious, but Viking's ability to capitalize on any defensive lapses keeps their hopes alive.
For the sharp betting angle, consider the value in Viking winning at odds of 26.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, presenting a 297% edge given their 15% chance according to the model. Meanwhile, an under 0.5 goals bet at odds of 85.0 with Betsafe—rated as a 3% chance—offers a striking 189% edge for those eyeing a dramatic twist.
VikingForm DWL
League ranking xG #39xGA #45xT #43xP/match #34Points #11
Key players
- Zlatko TripicFxG 0.40 · xT 0.27
- Peter ChristiansenFxG 0.34 · xT 0.01
- Edvin AustboCAMxG 0.08 · xT -0.03
Bayern MünchenForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #7xGA #3xT #2xP/match #6Points #31
Key players
- Michael OliseRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.18
- Lennart KarlRWxG 0.48 · xT 0.10
- Luis DiazLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.21
Match prediction: Viking – Bayern München
Predicted score matrix
Bayern München →
Viking →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.4%
0–17.3%
0–29.0%
0–37.1%
0–4+7.5%
1
1–03.1%
1–18.3%
1–29.6%
1–37.6%
1–4+8.0%
2
2–01.8%
2–14.3%
2–25.1%
2–34.1%
2–4+4.3%
3
3–00.6%
3–11.5%
3–21.8%
3–31.5%
3–4+1.5%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-210%
- 2.0-29%
- 3.1-18%
- 4.1-38%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,07–2,38
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,533%
@5.90EV+94%
Over 2,567%
@1.14
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bayern München to win66%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Jamal Musiala to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Jamal Musiala to score35%
- Joshua Walter Kimmich to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Viking15% probability@24.00BetsafeEV+267%reference odds
- 1 · Viking15% probability@24.00NordicbetEV+267%reference odds
- 1 · Viking15% probability@18.20PinnacleEV+178%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Viking | X | 2 · Bayern München |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 267% 24.00 | EV+ 106% 11.00 | 1.09 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 160% 17.00 | EV+ 106% 11.00 | 1.11 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 267% 24.00 | EV+ 106% 11.00 | 1.09 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 178% 18.20 | EV+ 164% 14.06 | 1.09 |
Odds updated 12 Oct, 19:35
Odds movement
1-3 %
8 %3 %
18.70 → 18.20
X-2 %
9 %4 %
14.38 → 14.06
20 %
91 %86 %
1.08 → 1.09
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- FC Bayern Munich have scored in 22 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viking
Bayern München
Viking (6–6)
Bayern München (5–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viking
Bayern München
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viking
Bayern München
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viking | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 3 |
| xPoints | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| xGA per match | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| Playing style | Viking | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.26 | 0.79 |
| xT per match | 0.67 | 2.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.14 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 22 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 4 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.88 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| Passes per match | 290 | 683 |
| Passes against per match | 519 | 313 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.6 | 22.2 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 20 |
| Set pieces | Viking | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 3.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.33 |
| Other | Viking | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.89 |
| The goalkeepers | Arild Ostbo (Viking) | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | – |
| Save % | 50% | – |
| xG prevented | 18% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Teams & more matches this round
- Arsenal – Lille13 October 2026
- Inter – Club Brugge13 October 2026
- Lens – Sporting CP13 October 2026
- Galatasaray – FC Barcelona13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United13 October 2026
- RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
- Sabah – Slavia Praha13 October 2026
- Villarreal – Napoli13 October 2026
- Shakhtar Donetsk – AEK Athens14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viking vs Bayern München according to our model?
The model gives Bayern München a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viking 15%, draw 19%, Bayern München 66%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Viking vs Bayern München?
The model expects 1.07 goals (xG) for Viking and 2.38 for Bayern München, 3.45 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Viking or draw (1X) 34%, Bayern München or draw (X2) 85% and no draw (12) 81%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.