Arsenal vs Lille Prediction: Home win 71% (13 Oct 2026)

Champions League13 October 202617°0,7 mm21 km/h

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ArsenalPossession & high press

LilleBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Arsenal (71%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lille @ 15.00 (+85 %)

1 · Arsenal 71%X 17%12% Lille · 2

71%

17%

12%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Arsenal vs Lille (Champions League, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Arsenal win 71%, draw 17%, Lille win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Arsenal 2.21, Lille 0.83. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Arsenal or draw 88%, Lille or draw 29%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

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Analysis: Arsenal – Lille

Marcus Johansson · 12 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Arsenal's pressing game is set to meet Lille's balanced, physical approach in tomorrow's clash. With Arsenal's impressive possession stats and high-pressing tactics, they're expected to dominate the proceedings. The model assigns the home side a commanding 71% win probability, suggesting that the Gunners' style will impose itself over Lille's more reserved setup.

The hosts come into this match with an enviable 16-match unbeaten run in league play, illustrating their consistent form. This contrasts sharply with Lille, who despite scoring in 10 consecutive league games, face a daunting task against Arsenal's defensive resilience. Arsenal's expected goals against (xGA) stands at a mere 0.25 per match, highlighting their defensive solidity, while Lille's xGA is a much higher 1.7.

A small head-to-head sample can't overshadow the dominance Arsenal should exert given their superior expected goals figures: 2.21 for Arsenal against Lille's 0.83. The most likely scorelines, 2-0 and 1-0, reflect the home side's edge and the anticipated control they will exert on the game. The model suggests a 59% chance for over 2.5 goals, with a slim majority for both teams to score at 51%. Therefore, a 2-0 or 2-1 Arsenal win seems plausible.

For those seeking value, Lille's victory is priced generously at odds of 13.5 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 11.0 with LeoVegas. However, given Lille's minuscule 12% chance of winning, these odds represent a calculated risk. While Arsenal appears the safer bet, the value on Lille provides an intriguing option for the bold bettor.

Arsenal

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #1Points #23

Key players

Mikel MerinoFxG 0.31 · xT 0.06
Martin ØdegaardCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.17
Viktor GyökeresFxG 0.55 · xT 0.08

Lille

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #45xGA #34xT #26xP/match #39Points #51

Key players

Tiago Carvalho SantosRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
Nabil BentalebCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Ayase UedaRWxG 0.64 · xT 0.08
Numbers from Ligue 1 2026

Match prediction: Arsenal – Lille

Predicted score matrix

Lille →

Arsenal →

0–05.0%

0–13.7%

0–21.7%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.3%

1–19.0%

1–23.7%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.6%

2–19.7%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.6%

3–17.2%

3–23.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–08.0%

4+–16.6%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-09%

Expected goals

2,21–0,83

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.44EV+1%

Over 2,559%

@1.57

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Arsenal to win71%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Arsenal to win71%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Kai Lukas Havertz to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Kai Lukas Havertz to score36%
Nabil Bentaleb to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lille12% probability@15.00BetsafeEV+85%reference odds
2 · Lille12% probability@15.00NordicbetEV+85%reference odds
2 · Lille12% probability@12.97PinnacleEV+60%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arsenal	X	2 · Lille
Betsafe	1.23	5.85	EV+ 85% 15.00
LeoVegas	1.22	EV+ 9% 6.50	EV+ 48% 12.00
Nordicbet	1.23	5.85	EV+ 85% 15.00
Pinnacle	1.21	EV+ 15% 6.88	EV+ 60% 12.97

Odds updated 12 Oct, 18:16

Odds movement

1-2 %

80 %75 %

1.24 → 1.21

X+6 %

17 %12 %

6.48 → 6.88

2+10 %

10 %5 %

11.80 → 12.97

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Arsenal FC are unbeaten in their last 16 league matches.
LOSC Lille have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arsenal

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arsenal (1–0)

Lille (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arsenal

Lille

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arsenal

Lille

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arsenal	Lille
Points	3	0
xPoints	2.8	1
xG per match	3.8	0.83
xGA per match	0.25	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.73	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.63

Playing style	Arsenal	Lille
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.32
Field tilt	0.9	0.33
xT per match	2.2	1.1
xTA per match	0.36	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.15
Entries into the box per match	34	7
Entries into the box against	4	22
Pass completion %	0.87	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.72
Passes per match	593	400
Passes against per match	413	521
Switches of play per match	13.8	15.6
Long balls per match	16	23

Set pieces	Arsenal	Lille
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	6.3	5.2
Corners against per match	0	5.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.2
First touch, defensive corners %	0	0.4

Other	Arsenal	Lille
Throw-in control	0.79	0.57

The goalkeepers	David Raya (Arsenal)	Alexsandro Victor de Souza Ribeiro (Lille)
Saves	3	3
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arsenal

Fixtures, form & tips

Lille

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arsenal vs Lille according to our model?

The model gives Arsenal a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arsenal 71%, draw 17%, Lille 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Lille?

The model expects 2.21 goals (xG) for Arsenal and 0.83 for Lille, 3.05 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Arsenal or draw (1X) 88%, Lille or draw (X2) 29% and no draw (12) 83%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.