RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction: Away win 44% (13 Oct 2026)

Champions League13 October 202612°1,1 mm12 km/h

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RB LeipzigBalanced & physical

PSV EindhovenPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · PSV Eindhoven (44%)

1 · RB Leipzig 34%X 22%44% PSV Eindhoven · 2

34%

22%

44%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven (Champions League, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): RB Leipzig win 34%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven win 44%. Expected goals (xG): RB Leipzig 1.48, PSV Eindhoven 1.75. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: RB Leipzig or draw 56%, PSV Eindhoven or draw 66%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven

Oscar Nilsson · 12 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: A striking 44% win probability for PSV Eindhoven sets the stage for this Champions League clash against RB Leipzig. The visitors, who lean towards possession control, arrive with a slight edge in both points and expected points—1 versus 0 and 1.4 versus 0.7, respectively. Leipzig's balanced and physical style contrasts sharply, yet their expected goals per match, standing at 1.1, outpaces PSV’s 0.59. However, defensively, Leipzig leaks with an expected goals against of 2.1 compared to Eindhoven's solid 0.54.

Despite Leipzig's prowess in generating chances, the visitors seem equipped to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The model's numbers clearly favor the visitors. A 1-2 outcome, while less probable than the 1-1, seems more coherent with PSV’s superior defensive metrics. The probability of surpassing 2.5 goals sits at 63%, reinforcing the notion of a match with scoring.

Punters siding with PSV find favorable odds across platforms. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer a compelling 4.0, while LeoVegas sits slightly lower at 3.85. All present a significant value opportunity given the model's 44% win projection for PSV—a sharp angle in a contest where market sentiment might overly favor the hosts.

RB Leipzig

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #41xGA #44xT #36xP/match #46Points #44

Key players

Antonio NusaLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.29
David RaumLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.21
Ridle BakuRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.29
Numbers from Bundesliga 2026

PSV Eindhoven

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #49xGA #6xT #55xP/match #25Points #39

Key players

Joey VeermanCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Ismael Saibari Ben El BasraCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.08
Jerdy SchoutenCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven

Predicted score matrix

PSV Eindhoven →

RB Leipzig →

0–04.3%

0–16.6%

0–26.1%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.3%

1–05.5%

1–110.5%

1–29.0%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.4%

2–04.3%

2–17.6%

2–26.6%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.5%

3–02.1%

3–13.7%

3–23.3%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.2%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.7%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,48–1,75

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,537%

@3.37EV+26%

Over 2,563%

@1.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Ivan Perišić to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Tidiam Diadie Stephan Gomis to score23%
Neil Yoni El Aynaoui to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · PSV Eindhoven44% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+86%reference odds
2 · PSV Eindhoven44% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+86%reference odds
2 · PSV Eindhoven44% probability@3.95LeoVegasEV+75%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · RB Leipzig	X	2 · PSV Eindhoven
Betsafe	1.72	4.30	EV+ 86% 4.20
LeoVegas	1.75	4.40	EV+ 75% 3.95
Nordicbet	1.72	4.30	EV+ 86% 4.20
Pinnacle	1.74	EV+ 6% 4.79	EV+ 73% 3.91

Odds updated 12 Oct, 19:35

Odds movement

1-4 %

57 %52 %

1.81 → 1.74

X+6 %

23 %18 %

4.52 → 4.79

2+4 %

28 %23 %

3.76 → 3.91

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

PSV Eindhoven

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

RB Leipzig (1–4)

PSV Eindhoven (1–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

RB Leipzig

PSV Eindhoven

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

RB Leipzig

PSV Eindhoven

The teams in numbers

Performance	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven
Points	0	1
xPoints	0.7	1.4
xG per match	1.1	0.59
xGA per match	2.1	0.54
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.36

Playing style	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.34
Field tilt	0.46	0.63
xT per match	0.9	0.25
xTA per match	0.84	0.3
Won balls, offensive half	21	37
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.18	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	7
Entries into the box against	14	4
Pass completion %	0.82	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.78
Passes per match	463	411
Passes against per match	495	336
Switches of play per match	27.5	38.5
Long balls per match	17	40

Set pieces	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	5.3	3.2
Corners against per match	1.1	3.2
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.14	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0	1

Other	RB Leipzig	PSV Eindhoven
Throw-in control	0.71	0.88

The goalkeepers	Maarten Vandevoordt (RB Leipzig)	Filip Kostić (PSV Eindhoven)
Saves	3	2
Save %	43%	100%
xG prevented	38%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

RB Leipzig

Fixtures, form & tips

PSV Eindhoven

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven according to our model?

The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: RB Leipzig 34%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?

The model expects 1.48 goals (xG) for RB Leipzig and 1.75 for PSV Eindhoven, 3.23 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

RB Leipzig or draw (1X) 56%, PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.