01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw (X2)71%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Croatian HNL15°10 km/h
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Hajduk SplitPossession & high pressvs
Dinamo ZagrebPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Dinamo Zagreb (40%)
Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb · Croatian HNL
1 · Hajduk Split 33%X 27%40% Dinamo Zagreb · 2
33%
27%
40%
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Analysis: Hajduk Split – Dinamo Zagreb
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Dinamo Zagreb have had the upper hand in recent clashes, taking four wins to Hajduk Split's two in their last eight encounters. However, with a modest sample size, it's crucial to weigh other factors heavily, namely form and expected metrics. Zagreb's slight edge in xPoints (14.5 to 13.3) and xG per match (2.5 to 1.6) suggests they are likely to control proceedings, even as the visitors.
Hajduk Split, boasting a robust home win rate of 68% across 40 matches, are no pushovers on their own turf. Their defensive solidity is reflected in their lower xGA per match (0.66) compared to Zagreb (0.77). Despite this, the expected goals model hints at a narrow visitor advantage, with Dinamo Zagreb's attacking prowess outweighing Hajduk's defensive control.
The rain, with 12.9 mm expected, could potentially dampen the high-octane pressing systems both teams favor, traditionally suppressing goal numbers. Yet, the model still favors a scoreline skewed towards the visitors. Most likely outcomes are a tight 1-1, followed by a 1-2, suggesting a narrow Zagreb success is quite plausible, aligning with the model's lean towards Dinamo.
Emphasizing the model's lean, a 1-2 result feels like a calculated risk, with the anticipated over 2.5 goals still in play despite the rain.
Hajduk SplitForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Marko LivajaFxG 0.75 · xT 0.30
- Rokas PukštasCDMxG 0.34 · xT 0.24
- Šimun HrgovićLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Dinamo ZagrebForm WDWLW
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Dion Drena BeljoFxG 1.20 · xT 0.08
- Paul Bismarck TabinasRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.24
- Luka StojkovićRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Hajduk Split – Dinamo Zagreb
Predicted score matrix
Dinamo Zagreb →
Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–17.8%
0–27.1%
0–34.1%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–05.8%
1–111.1%
1–29.4%
1–35.5%
1–4+3.5%
2
2–04.1%
2–17.1%
2–26.2%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.3%
3
3–01.8%
3–13.1%
3–22.7%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,32–1,75
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.14
Over 2,559%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw (X2)71%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Dion Drena Beljo to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Michele Šego to score34%
- Alberto del Moral Saelices to be booked21%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hajduk Split | X | 2 · Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.50 | 2.23 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 07:00
Odds movement
1+3 %
34 %29 %
2.88 → 2.98
X+1 %
29 %24 %
3.48 → 3.50
2-3 %
44 %39 %
2.29 → 2.23
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesHajduk Split 2Draw 2Dinamo Zagreb 4
Goals: 7–13 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 8 meetings.
- Hajduk Split win 68% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
Hajduk Split (16–8)
Dinamo Zagreb (17–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hajduk Split
Dinamo Zagreb
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hajduk Split | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 16 |
| xPoints | 13.3 | 14.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| xGA per match | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Hajduk Split | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 446 | 460 |
| Passes against per match | 250 | 243 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.3 | 34.8 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Hajduk Split | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 7.7 |
| Corners against per match | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| Other | Hajduk Split | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Toni Silić (Hajduk Split) | Dominik Kotarski (Dinamo Zagreb) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 10 |
| Save % | 58% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 26% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb according to our model?
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hajduk Split 33%, draw 27%, Dinamo Zagreb 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.