01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rijeka to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Croatian HNL14°8,1 mm13 km/h
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Slaven BelupoLow block & directvs
RijekaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Rijeka (62%)
Slaven Belupo vs Rijeka · Croatian HNL
1 · Slaven Belupo 15%X 23%62% Rijeka · 2
15%
23%
62%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Slaven Belupo – Rijeka
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: HNK Rijeka is entering their match against Slaven Belupo with a decisive edge, both statistically and in terms of recent form. The visitors boast an impressive unbeaten streak spanning their last five league outings, contrasting sharply with the hosts' struggles. Rijeka's possession and high press style have been effective, helping them create an expected goals (xG) of 2.03 for this match. This starkly contrasts with Belupo's defensive vulnerabilities, highlighted by an xGA of 1.8, indicating they may struggle to contain the Rijeka attack.
The historical head-to-head record, though a small sample size, further solidifies Rijeka's dominance. In the eight encounters since 2023, Rijeka has secured four victories compared to Belupo's solitary win. While these past results carry less weight than form and expected goals, they align with the current trajectory of both teams.
The model firmly leans towards Rijeka with a 62% probability of victory, suggesting a confident backing of the visitors. The most likely scorelines—0-2 and 0-1, both at 11%—underscore this dominance. The expected goals of 0.86 for Belupo suggest they're unlikely to break through, even against Rijeka's solid defense, which allows just 0.62 xGA per match.
Rain is expected to fall at 9.6 mm, likely dampening the goal count. However, the over 2.5 goals market still sees a slight lean at 55%, with a 50% chance of both teams finding the net. The combination of Rijeka's attacking potential and Belupo's defensive weaknesses indicates goals are more likely than not, despite the weather.
The sharpest angle lies in the outright market. Rijeka's win is the standout pick, given the model's 62% win probability. As the numbers suggest, backing Rijeka seems a sound choice, with 0-2 standing out as a plausible final score.
Slaven BelupoForm WLWLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #7xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Ilija NestorovskiFxG 0.45 · xT 0.09
- Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Alen GrgićRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
RijekaForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #2xP/match #2Points #5
Key players
- Niko JankovićLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.07
- Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Ante OrecRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
Match prediction: Slaven Belupo – Rijeka
Predicted score matrix
Rijeka →
Slaven Belupo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–111.0%
0–211.4%
0–37.7%
0–4+6.3%
1
1–04.5%
1–110.0%
1–29.9%
1–36.7%
1–4+5.4%
2
2–02.1%
2–14.2%
2–24.2%
2–32.9%
2–4+2.3%
3
3–00.6%
3–11.2%
3–21.2%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.3%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-211%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.1-210%
- 5.0-38%
Expected goals
0,86–2,03
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@1.98
Over 2,555%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rijeka to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jakov Puljić to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jakov Puljić to score39%
- Ljuban Crepulja to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Slaven Belupo | X | 2 · Rijeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 5.30 | 3.95 | 1.52 |
| Nordicbet | 5.30 | 3.95 | 1.52 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesSlaven Belupo 1Draw 3Rijeka 4
Goals: 5–12 (⌀ 2,1)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Key facts
- HNK Rijeka dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
- HNK Rijeka are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Slaven Belupo
Rijeka
Slaven Belupo (7–16)
Rijeka (13–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Slaven Belupo
Rijeka
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Slaven Belupo
Rijeka
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Slaven Belupo | Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 14 |
| xPoints | 8.5 | 13.1 |
| xG per match | 0.95 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 0.62 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | Slaven Belupo | Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.8 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.62 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 5 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 270 | 452 |
| Passes against per match | 390 | 292 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.1 | 31.8 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Slaven Belupo | Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| Other | Slaven Belupo | Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo) | Igor Vekić (Rijeka) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 11 |
| Save % | 59% | 92% |
| xG prevented | 41% | 89% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Slaven Belupo vs Rijeka according to our model?
The model gives Rijeka a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Slaven Belupo 15%, draw 23%, Rijeka 62%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.