Gorica vs Rudeš Prediction: Home win 50% (9 Oct 2026)

Croatian HNL9 October 202611°18,3 mm14 km/h

Läs på svenska

GoricaLow block & direct

RudešLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Gorica (50%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.98 (+19 %)

1 · Gorica 50%X 30%20% Rudeš · 2

50%

30%

20%

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Gorica – Rudeš

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Gorica's clash with Rudeš sets up a tactical battle defined by direct play, with both teams leaning on low defenses. In a contest likely to be determined by who can best exploit their forward thrust, Gorica holds the upper hand. They not only enjoy a points advantage, 5 to Rudeš's 4, but also a superior xPoints tally of 8.6 compared to 5.4. Gorica's expected goals per match at 0.84 surpass Rudeš's 0.63, reflecting their slightly more potent attack. Though neither team is prolific in front of goal, Gorica's edge is clear.

The numbers tell a consistent story: Gorica is better positioned on both ends of the pitch. Their xGA stands at 1.6, significantly lower than Rudeš's 2.2, highlighting a tighter defense that could be crucial in a game this likely to be decided by fine margins. The model's most probable outcomes—1-0 and 1-1, each at 13%—indicate a close contest, but one that leans towards Gorica's favor based on their overall statistical edge.

With both teams employing similar tactics, each relying on direct play from deep positions, the likelihood of a high-scoring affair diminishes. The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at just 43%, while the chances of both teams finding the net are at 46%. These numbers align with the expected defensive setups and suggest a tighter contest, likely settled by a solitary goal or two.

For value-seekers, the model's 50% probability backing Gorica to win might present an opportunity if the odds are favorable. One bookmaker, Bet365, offers Gorica at 2.00, which, given the statistical indicators, could represent positive expected value. As the numbers suggest, Gorica's marginal superiority should see them edge out a victory in a hard-fought match.

Gorica

Form LDLDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #9xP/match #7Points #9

Key players

Bruno BogojevićLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.09
Jakov PranjićFxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
Luka VrzićRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.04

Rudeš

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Cherno SahoFxG 0.12 · xT 0.00
Jurica PoldrugačLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
Vedran CeljakCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Gorica – Rudeš

Predicted score matrix

Rudeš →

Gorica →

0–09.5%

0–17.9%

0–23.7%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–013.3%

1–112.6%

1–25.5%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.2%

2–19.2%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.1%

3–14.6%

3–22.0%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-113%
3.2-010%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,49–0,90

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

@1.99EV+13%

Over 2,543%

@1.79

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Gorica to win50%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Gorica to win50%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Fran Brodić to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Fran Brodić to score31%
Noa Skoko to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.98PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gorica	X	2 · Rudeš
Betsafe	1.55	EV+ 16% 3.85	EV+ 2% 5.10
Nordicbet	1.55	EV+ 16% 3.85	EV+ 2% 5.10
Pinnacle	1.57	EV+ 19% 3.98	EV+ 5% 5.25

Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:03

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gorica

Rudeš

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gorica (5–12)

Rudeš (10–24)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gorica

Rudeš

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gorica

Rudeš

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gorica	Rudeš
Points	5	4
xPoints	8.6	5.4
xG per match	0.84	0.63
xGA per match	1.6	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.06
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.31

Playing style	Gorica	Rudeš
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.28
Field tilt	0.31	0.36
xT per match	0.73	0.63
xTA per match	1.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	7
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.71	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.65
Passes per match	293	265
Passes against per match	400	412
Switches of play per match	20.1	22
Long balls per match	30	29

Set pieces	Gorica	Rudeš
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.1
Corners per match	2.6	3.5
Corners against per match	5.7	6.7
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.57

Other	Gorica	Rudeš
Throw-in control	0.69	0.61

The goalkeepers	Renato Josipović (Gorica)	Lovre Rogić (Rudeš)
Saves	24	27
Save %	89%	53%
xG prevented	67%	24%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gorica

Fixtures, form & tips

Rudeš

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gorica vs Rudeš according to our model?

The model gives Gorica a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gorica 50%, draw 30%, Rudeš 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.