01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Varaždin to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Croatian HNL14°6,3 mm12 km/h
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Lokomotiva ZagrebLow block & directvs
VaraždinCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Varaždin (51%)
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin · Croatian HNL
1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb 22%X 27%51% Varaždin · 2
22%
27%
51%
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Analysis: Lokomotiva Zagreb – Varaždin
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT:
51% probability for Varaždin to win stands out. The model positions the visitors as clear favourites. With Lokomotiva Zagreb managing just 7 points compared to Varaždin's 15, the table already tilts in favor of the visitors. Moreover, the expected goals (xG) metrics underline this disparity: Zagreb's 1.04 against Varaždin's 1.67 points to a likely struggle for the hosts.
Despite the head-to-head results showing a fairly balanced record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses for Zagreb since 2023, it's a small sample that carries less weight than current form and statistics. The more telling story lies in defensive resilience. Lokomotiva's xGA of 1.9 per match is significantly weaker compared to Varaždin's 0.89. This defensive fragility adds another layer of concern for the hosts.
Given a most likely 1-1 draw forecast and an over 2.5 goals probability of 51%, the model leans towards a cautious goal count. However, rain is likely to play a suppressive role, potentially leading to fewer goals. The value angle here is clear: backing NK Varaždin to win looks like an attractive opportunity.
Lokomotiva ZagrebForm LLLDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #8xP/match #9Points #7
Key players
- Marko PajačLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.35
- Mirko MarićFxG 0.61 · xT -0.01
- Leon BelcarFxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
VaraždinForm LWDDD
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #5xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Aleksa LatkovićRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
- Luka MamićCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.06
- Ivan MamutFxG 0.46 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Lokomotiva Zagreb – Varaždin
Predicted score matrix
Varaždin →
Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–110.8%
0–29.3%
0–35.2%
0–4+3.1%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.9%
1–29.6%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.3%
2
2–03.6%
2–16.0%
2–25.0%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–01.2%
3–12.1%
3–21.7%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,04–1,67
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.92
Over 2,551%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Varaždin to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Emmanuel Chimeroucheya Uchegbu to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Emmanuel Chimeroucheya Uchegbu to score20%
- Matija Subotić to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Varaždin51% probability@2.10BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Varaždin51% probability@2.10NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Varaždin51% probability@2.01PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lokomotiva Zagreb | X | 2 · Varaždin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.20 | 3.30 | EV+ 8% 2.10 |
| Nordicbet | 3.20 | 3.30 | EV+ 8% 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | 3.42 | EV+ 3% 2.01 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:03
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesLokomotiva Zagreb 2Draw 3Varaždin 3
Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
Lokomotiva Zagreb (11–16)
Varaždin (13–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Varaždin
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 15 |
| xPoints | 8.2 | 12.8 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 0.89 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 0.98 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 251 | 343 |
| Passes against per match | 381 | 365 |
| Switches of play per match | 24 | 40.9 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.5 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| Other | Lokomotiva Zagreb | Varaždin |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Josip Posavec (Lokomotiva Zagreb) | Josip Silić (Varaždin) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 29 |
| Save % | 69% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 70% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Varaždin according to our model?
The model gives Varaždin a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lokomotiva Zagreb 22%, draw 27%, Varaždin 51%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.