Croatian HNL19°1,5 mm9 km/h

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    RijekaRijekaPossession & high press
    vs
    Hajduk SplitHajduk SplitPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Rijeka (40%)

    Rijeka – Hajduk Split · Croatian HNL

    1 · Rijeka 40%X 29%31% Hajduk Split · 2

    Analysis: Rijeka – Hajduk Split

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    FAKTA doesn't mention any betting odds or bookmaker. The final paragraph fabricates specific odds (2.50 with Betfair) not supported by the data.

    Corrected text:

    Under the floodlights tomorrow, the clash between Rijeka and Hajduk Split promises to be a tightly contested affair. Both teams come armed with high possession and pressing styles, setting the stage for a midfield battle that could dictate the outcome. The model leans slightly towards Rijeka at 40%, but the proximity in probabilities—Hajduk at 31%—signals a razor-thin margin. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, underline this expected closeness, with neither side holding a definitive upper hand.

    Hajduk Split's current form adds an intriguing layer. Riding a wave of four consecutive wins and having scored in eight straight league matches, their momentum is palpable. However, Rijeka's formidable home statistics should not be ignored; they claim victory in 65% of their home games. The head-to-head sample since 2023 is small yet perfectly balanced with two wins apiece and four draws, underscoring the even nature of this rivalry. Yet, in terms of points and xPoints, Hajduk shows a slight edge, hinting at their ability to grind out results.

    Expected goals (xG) figures echo the likelihood of a close, low-scoring contest: Rijeka at 1.36 and Hajduk at 1.32. While xG per match slightly favors Rijeka at 1.9, their defensive xGA of 0.62 suggests a robust backline that could stifle Hajduk's advances. This equilibrium in the numbers points towards a tactical chess game rather than an open-ended shootout, reflected in the 50% over 2.5 goals probability.

    The model's slight lean towards Rijeka, despite Hajduk's strong recent form, combined with the hosts' strong historical home performance, makes this an intriguing matchup to watch.

    RijekaRijeka
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #5
    Key players
    • Niko JankovićLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
    • Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
    • Ante OrecRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
    Hajduk SplitHajduk Split
    Form DWWWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #2xP/match #3Points #1
    Key players
    • Marko LivajaFxG 0.78 · xT 0.31
    • Dalisson de Almeida LeiteFxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
    • Anđelo ŠutaloRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.22

    Match prediction: Rijeka – Hajduk Split

    Predicted score matrix

    Hajduk Split →
    Rijeka →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–18.7%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–09.0%
    1–112.7%
    1–28.1%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.4%
    2–18.4%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,36–1,32
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    –
    Over 2,550%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Rijeka or draw (1X)64%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.15

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Rijeka or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Jakov Puljić to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Michele Šego to score33%
    • Branko Pavić to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    Rijeka 2Draw 4Hajduk Split 2
    Goals: 13–7 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Croatian HNL data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Hajduk Split come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • Hajduk Split have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    • HNK Rijeka win 65% of their home matches all-time (57 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rijeka
    Hajduk Split
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rijeka (9–6)
    Hajduk Split (15–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rijeka
    Ante Majstorović: 347 passningar, xT 0.57MajstorovićTiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas: 259 passningar, xT 0.79DantasBranko Pavić: 218 passningar, xT 0.3PavićJustas Lasickas: 187 passningar, xT 0.47LasickasAnel Husic: 183 passningar, xT 0.15HusicAnte Orec: 182 passningar, xT 0.41OrecAlfonso Daniel Barco del Solar: 176 passningar, xT 0.25SolarToni Fruk: 143 passningar, xT 1.28FrukNiko Janković: 134 passningar, xT 0.21JankovićMladen Devetak: 119 passningar, xT 0.33DevetakIvan Ćubelić: 113 passningar, xT 0.06Ćubelić
    Hajduk Split
    Dario Marešić: 336 passningar, xT 0.48MarešićAdrion Pajaziti: 214 passningar, xT 0.24PajazitiAlec Van Hoorenbeeck: 181 passningar, xT 0.19HoorenbeeckŠimun Hrgović: 171 passningar, xT 0.81HrgovićMathieu Acapandié: 151 passningar, xT 0.15AcapandiéAlberto del Moral Saelices: 150 passningar, xT 0.12SaelicesToni Silić: 134 passningar, xT 0.14SilićRon Raçi: 131 passningar, xT 0.13RaçiLuka Hodak: 110 passningar, xT 0.11HodakNiko Kristian Sigur: 75 passningar, xT 0.08SigurDalisson de Almeida Leite: 66 passningar, xT 0.14Leite
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rijeka
    Ante Majstorović: 347 passningar, xT 0.57MajstorovićTiago Filipe Oliveira Dantas: 259 passningar, xT 0.79DantasBranko Pavić: 218 passningar, xT 0.3PavićJustas Lasickas: 187 passningar, xT 0.47LasickasAnel Husic: 183 passningar, xT 0.15HusicAnte Orec: 182 passningar, xT 0.41OrecAlfonso Daniel Barco del Solar: 176 passningar, xT 0.25SolarToni Fruk: 143 passningar, xT 1.28FrukNiko Janković: 134 passningar, xT 0.21JankovićMladen Devetak: 119 passningar, xT 0.33DevetakIvan Ćubelić: 113 passningar, xT 0.06Ćubelić
    Hajduk Split
    Dario Marešić: 336 passningar, xT 0.48MarešićAdrion Pajaziti: 214 passningar, xT 0.24PajazitiAlec Van Hoorenbeeck: 181 passningar, xT 0.19HoorenbeeckŠimun Hrgović: 171 passningar, xT 0.81HrgovićMathieu Acapandié: 151 passningar, xT 0.15AcapandiéAlberto del Moral Saelices: 150 passningar, xT 0.12SaelicesToni Silić: 134 passningar, xT 0.14SilićRon Raçi: 131 passningar, xT 0.13RaçiLuka Hodak: 110 passningar, xT 0.11HodakNiko Kristian Sigur: 75 passningar, xT 0.08SigurDalisson de Almeida Leite: 66 passningar, xT 0.14Leite

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRijekaHajduk Split
    Points1013
    xPoints9.710.9
    xG per match1.91.9
    xGA per match0.620.67
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.330.28
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.110.08
    Playing styleRijekaHajduk Split
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.850.72
    xT per match1.31.3
    xTA per match0.570.56
    Won balls, offensive half3129
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.350.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.27
    Entries into the box per match1815
    Entries into the box against47
    Pass completion %0.80.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.75
    Passes per match488428
    Passes against per match279249
    Switches of play per match35.430.8
    Long balls per match3637
    Set piecesRijekaHajduk Split
    xG from free kicks0.030.01
    Corners per match7.65
    Corners against per match2.42.3
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.79
    OtherRijekaHajduk Split
    Throw-in control0.640.77
    The goalkeepersAleksa Todorović (Rijeka)Toni Silić (Hajduk Split)
    Saves68
    Save %55%62%
    xG prevented43%21%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rijeka
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hajduk Split
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rijeka vs Hajduk Split according to our model?

    The model gives Rijeka a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rijeka 40%, draw 29%, Hajduk Split 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.