Croatian HNL16°1,5 mm9 km/h

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    RudešRudešLow block & direct
    vs
    Slaven BelupoSlaven BelupoLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Slaven Belupo (43%)

    Rudeš – Slaven Belupo · Croatian HNL

    1 · Rudeš 29%X 28%43% Slaven Belupo · 2

    Analysis: Rudeš – Slaven Belupo

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The under 2.5 goals at 1.80 odds (Bookmaker X) presents a valuable opportunity, considering the likely cautious play from both sides.

    This claim is unsupported by the provided facts, which contain no bookmaker odds. Corrected text:

    Slaven Belupo's modest edge in expected goals and points sets the stage for their visit to Rudeš. With 43% win probability, the visitors hold a clear advantage. A win here would cement their position in the league, building on the six points already secured this season. While Rudeš's low defensive style matches Slaven's, it hasn't translated into results, leaving them with only three points so far.

    Rudeš has struggled to generate offense, shown by their meager 0.59 xG per match. They rely heavily on direct play, but the lack of creativity has proved costly. Slaven's defense, while not impenetrable, is marginally more robust, conceding just a fraction less in xGA per match. The home side will need to be clinical with their limited chances if they hope to disrupt Slaven's rhythm.

    Most likely scorelines point to a tight affair, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable outcome at 13%. Yet, the probability of a 0-1 win for Slaven at 11% suggests they might edge it. Both teams' preference for low defenses and direct styles could lead to a cautious opening, suppressing goal opportunities. The model forecasts just a 44% chance for over 2.5 goals, highlighting expectations for a low-scoring contest.

    Given the small sample size of recent head-to-head encounters, current form and expected goals carry more weight in assessing the match. With Slaven's slight advantages across key metrics, they seem poised to eke out a narrow victory, with the model favoring a low-scoring contest overall.

    RudešRudeš
    Form LLWLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #10Points #9
    Key players
    • Jurica PoldrugačLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
    • Vedran CeljakCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
    • Xavier Cabrita FernandesCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
    Slaven BelupoSlaven Belupo
    Form LLWLW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #7xP/match #9Points #8
    Key players
    • Josip MitrovićFxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
    • Ljuban CrepuljaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
    • Alen GrgićRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: Rudeš – Slaven Belupo

    Predicted score matrix

    Slaven Belupo →
    Rudeš →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.1%
    0–111.3%
    0–27.9%
    0–33.5%
    0–4+1.6%
    1
    1–09.2%
    1–113.2%
    1–28.6%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–05.3%
    2–17.0%
    2–24.7%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.1-29%
    Expected goals
    1,10–1,34
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,556%
    –
    Over 2,544%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.86

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Slaven Belupo or draw (X2)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Ilija Nestorovski to score16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Ilija Nestorovski to score16%
    • Marko Stolnik to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rudeš
    Slaven Belupo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rudeš (6–19)
    Slaven Belupo (5–13)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rudeš
    Vedran Celjak: 197 passningar, xT 0.59CeljakMarko Stolnik: 172 passningar, xT 0.11StolnikIvan Đorić: 135 passningar, xT -0.03ĐorićBruno Unusic: 124 passningar, xT 0.34UnusicXavier Cabrita Fernandes: 121 passningar, xT 0.46FernandesNoa Skoko: 120 passningar, xT 0.28SkokoLovre Rogić: 96 passningar, xT 0.13RogićToni Kolega: 84 passningar, xT 0.05KolegaJurica Poldrugač: 76 passningar, xT 0.54PoldrugačAnte Sušak: 63 passningar, xT 0.23SušakJakov Blagaić: 50 passningar, xT 0.06Blagaić
    Slaven Belupo
    Ljuban Crepulja: 165 passningar, xT 0.24CrepuljaDominik Kovačić: 156 passningar, xT 0.26KovačićIvan Cvetko: 115 passningar, xT 0.12CvetkoJosip Mitrović: 105 passningar, xT 0.59MitrovićKarlo Sentić: 100 passningar, xT 0.09SentićFilip Krušelj: 100 passningar, xT 0.57KrušeljIlija Nestorovski: 75 passningar, xT 0.27NestorovskiKarlo Isasegi: 68 passningar, xT 0.14IsasegiLeon Bošnjak: 60 passningar, xT 0.21BošnjakAdetunji Rasaq Adeshina: 58 passningar, xT 0.08AdeshinaMarko Dabro: 50 passningar, xT 0.02Dabro
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rudeš
    Vedran Celjak: 197 passningar, xT 0.59CeljakMarko Stolnik: 172 passningar, xT 0.11StolnikIvan Đorić: 135 passningar, xT -0.03ĐorićBruno Unusic: 124 passningar, xT 0.34UnusicXavier Cabrita Fernandes: 121 passningar, xT 0.46FernandesNoa Skoko: 120 passningar, xT 0.28SkokoLovre Rogić: 96 passningar, xT 0.13RogićToni Kolega: 84 passningar, xT 0.05KolegaJurica Poldrugač: 76 passningar, xT 0.54PoldrugačAnte Sušak: 63 passningar, xT 0.23SušakJakov Blagaić: 50 passningar, xT 0.06Blagaić
    Slaven Belupo
    Ljuban Crepulja: 165 passningar, xT 0.24CrepuljaDominik Kovačić: 156 passningar, xT 0.26KovačićIvan Cvetko: 115 passningar, xT 0.12CvetkoJosip Mitrović: 105 passningar, xT 0.59MitrovićKarlo Sentić: 100 passningar, xT 0.09SentićFilip Krušelj: 100 passningar, xT 0.57KrušeljIlija Nestorovski: 75 passningar, xT 0.27NestorovskiKarlo Isasegi: 68 passningar, xT 0.14IsasegiLeon Bošnjak: 60 passningar, xT 0.21BošnjakAdetunji Rasaq Adeshina: 58 passningar, xT 0.08AdeshinaMarko Dabro: 50 passningar, xT 0.02Dabro

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRudešSlaven Belupo
    Points36
    xPoints45.5
    xG per match0.590.84
    xGA per match2.22.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.050.06
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.2
    Playing styleRudešSlaven Belupo
    Build-up efficiency0.260.29
    Field tilt0.340.37
    xT per match0.650.78
    xTA per match1.41.4
    Won balls, offensive half1922
    Pressing intensity0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency0.260.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.24
    Entries into the box per match88
    Entries into the box against1517
    Pass completion %0.730.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.64
    Passes per match278260
    Passes against per match421397
    Switches of play per match22.917.2
    Long balls per match2929
    Set piecesRudešSlaven Belupo
    xG from free kicks0.130.04
    Corners per match2.93.5
    Corners against per match7.45.5
    xG per corner0.030.06
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.55
    OtherRudešSlaven Belupo
    Throw-in control0.590.69
    The goalkeepersLovre Rogić (Rudeš)Karlo Sentić (Slaven Belupo)
    Saves2520
    Save %57%61%
    xG prevented31%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rudeš
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Slaven Belupo
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rudeš vs Slaven Belupo according to our model?

    The model gives Slaven Belupo a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rudeš 29%, draw 28%, Slaven Belupo 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.