01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
EredivisieDe Kuip, Rotterdam13°6,0 mm22 km/h
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FeyenoordPossession & high pressvs
AZ AlkmaarPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Feyenoord (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.95 (+14 %)
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie
1 · Feyenoord 45%X 29%27% AZ Alkmaar · 2
45%
29%
27%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Four recent encounters between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar tilt towards the home side with Feyenoord winning twice and drawing twice, but a small sample of matches should not overshadow broader trends. The visitors arrive in Rotterdam unbeaten in their last 13 league outings, a streak that hints at a resilience Feyenoord will be keen to test. Despite being edged out slightly by AZ in points this season, Feyenoord's xG and xGA numbers hint at a team well-versed in defensive stability.
The hosts come into this match basking in the confidence of three consecutive wins. Their effectiveness in front of goal is underscored by a run of 12 straight matches with a score, but AZ is no slouch in attack either, having found the net in their last 10 league games. Both teams like to control possession and press high, which could result in a tactical stalemate early on. The expected goals suggest a narrow edge for Feyenoord, but not decisively so.
With the model probabilities giving Feyenoord a 45% chance of victory and the draw at 29%, the numbers suggest a tussle that might not reveal a clear victor until late. The weather, with rain in the forecast, might further muffle goal-scoring chances, though this factor is already factored into the model's expectations. The most likely scorelines — 1-1 and 2-1 — reflect a potentially tight affair.
In the betting markets, value emerges more clearly in the cautious plays. While the metrics lean slightly towards over 2.5 goals, the 14% edge on the under 2.5 at odds of 2.75 with LeoVegas stands out. Similarly, the under 3.5 at odds of 1.75 offers a 12% edge. For those eyeing a more adventurous outcome, the draw at odds of 3.95 provides significant value with a 14% edge according to the model's assessment.
FeyenoordForm WDWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Anis Hadj MoussaRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.36
- Ayase UedaFxG 1.00 · xT 0.09
- Luciano ValenteLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.25
AZ AlkmaarForm WWWDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #5xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Mexx MeerdinkFxG 0.88 · xT -0.02
- Ro-Zangelo DaalLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.32
- Peer KoopmeinersCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
Match prediction: Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar
Predicted score matrix
AZ Alkmaar →
Feyenoord →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–16.7%
0–25.1%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.3%
1
1–07.2%
1–111.4%
1–28.1%
1–33.9%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.7%
2–26.4%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.6%
3–23.3%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,58–1,46
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.75EV+14%
Over 2,559%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Feyenoord or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Ayase Ueda to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Ayase Ueda to score32%
- Lewis Schouten to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.95LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.75LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Feyenoord | X | 2 · AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.83 | EV+ 10% 3.80 | EV+ 3% 3.87 |
| LeoVegas | 1.83 | EV+ 14% 3.95 | EV+ 1% 3.80 |
| Nordicbet | 1.83 | EV+ 10% 3.80 | EV+ 3% 3.87 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFeyenoord 2Draw 2AZ Alkmaar 0
Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- Feyenoord come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Feyenoord have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
- AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
- Feyenoord win 62% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord (25–7)
AZ Alkmaar (18–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 19 |
| xPoints | 14.5 | 14.6 |
| xG per match | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| xGA per match | 0.82 | 0.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.06 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| xT per match | 2 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 23 | 22 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 457 | 476 |
| Passes against per match | 325 | 300 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.4 | 23.2 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 8.4 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.39 |
| Other | Feyenoord | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Tjark Ernst (Feyenoord) | Jari De Busser (AZ Alkmaar) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 11 |
| Save % | 67% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar according to our model?
The model gives Feyenoord a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Feyenoord 45%, draw 29%, AZ Alkmaar 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.