01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Twente to win73%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
EredivisieFortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard13°6,9 mm24 km/h
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Fortuna SittardLow block & directvs
TwentePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Twente (73%)
Fortuna Sittard vs Twente · Eredivisie
1 · Fortuna Sittard 12%X 15%73% Twente · 2
15%
73%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Fortuna Sittard – Twente
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
A staggering 73% probability of Twente claiming victory looms large as Fortuna Sittard brace themselves for a challenging evening. The visiting side has been in formidable form, notching up three consecutive wins, and they arrive with a clear tactical upper hand. Twente's high press and possession-based approach are set to probe a Sittard side that tends to rely on a low defensive block and direct play—a pattern unlikely to alter the expected dynamics.
While Sittard has managed to collect 13 points this season, the underlying numbers paint a far bleaker picture. Their xPoints stand at a mere 8.1 compared to Twente's 15, suggesting a degree of overperformance that might buckle under the visitors' relentless attacking pressure. The expected goals metric tells a similar tale: Sittard is struggling at 0.87 per match, dwarfed by Twente's 2.6. This disparity is mirrored defensively, with the hosts averaging 2.2 xGA against Twente's far more secure 0.72.
Although the head-to-head record since 2022 is limited to four games, Twente's dominance is unmistakable with three wins and a draw. Yet, the small sample size advises caution in drawing sweeping conclusions from their past encounters alone. It's the present form and tactical match-up that strongly point towards another Twente triumph.
Predicted scorelines of 0-2 or 0-3 align with the model's lean, suggesting a match where the visitors are likely to capitalize on their superior attacking metrics. However, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals, there remains a decent probability that Sittard might find the net amidst Twente's aggressive play.
The odds confirm the visitors' status as heavy favorites, yet the rain might obscure the clarity of this outcome, already considered by the model.
Fortuna SittardForm LWWLW
League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #18xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Lequincio ZeefuikFxG 0.22 · xT 0.03
- Mohamed Amine IhattarenRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
- Anthony Kevin N. DescotteFxG 0.15 · xT 0.01
TwenteForm WDWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #3xP/match #1Points #4
Key players
- Marko PjacaRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.18
- Younes Taha El IdrissiRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.50
- Bart van RooijRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.45
Match prediction: Fortuna Sittard – Twente
Predicted score matrix
Twente →
Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–17.7%
0–210.2%
0–38.8%
0–4+10.5%
1
1–02.6%
1–17.4%
1–29.2%
1–37.9%
1–4+9.5%
2
2–01.3%
2–13.2%
2–24.2%
2–33.6%
2–4+4.3%
3
3–00.4%
3–11.0%
3–21.3%
3–31.1%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.3%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-210%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-39%
- 4.1-38%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
0,90–2,58
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,532%
@2.95
Over 2,568%
@1.37
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Twente to win73%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Mathias Ullereng Kjølø to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Mathias Ullereng Kjølø to score29%
- Édouard Oscar Michut to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Twente73% probability@1.44BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 2 · Twente73% probability@1.44NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
- 2 · Twente73% probability@1.43PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fortuna Sittard | X | 2 · Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 6.67 | 4.47 | EV+ 6% 1.44 |
| LeoVegas | 6.00 | 5.20 | EV+ 4% 1.42 |
| Nordicbet | 6.67 | 4.47 | EV+ 6% 1.44 |
| Pinnacle | 6.06 | 5.11 | EV+ 5% 1.43 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 09:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFortuna Sittard 0Draw 1Twente 3
Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- Twente Enschede FC come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
Fortuna Sittard (13–14)
Twente (15–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fortuna Sittard | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 16 |
| xPoints | 8.1 | 15 |
| xG per match | 0.87 | 2.6 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 0.72 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Fortuna Sittard | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.2 | 0.73 |
| xT per match | 0.54 | 1.9 |
| xTA per match | 1.8 | 0.54 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 17 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 23 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 249 | 473 |
| Passes against per match | 509 | 323 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.6 | 36.4 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Fortuna Sittard | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2.1 | 7.5 |
| Corners against per match | 7.9 | 3.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.35 |
| Other | Fortuna Sittard | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard) | Lars Unnerstall (Twente) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 16 |
| Save % | 71% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fortuna Sittard vs Twente according to our model?
The model gives Twente a 73% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Sittard 12%, draw 15%, Twente 73%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.