01 · 2 legs
Safe
- PSV Eindhoven to win75%
- Over 1.5 goals91%
EredivisiePhilips Stadion, Eindhoven12°3,6 mm23 km/h
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PSV EindhovenPossession & high pressvs
HeerenveenBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · PSV Eindhoven (75%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 4.78 (+15 %)
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen · Eredivisie
1 · PSV Eindhoven 75%X 15%10% Heerenveen · 2
75%
15%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
An imposing 75% win probability underscores PSV Eindhoven's dominance over Heerenveen in their upcoming clash. The hosts not only have a superior head-to-head record with six wins in their last eight meetings, but they also boast an impressive streak of scoring in 37 consecutive league matches. With expected goals heavily favoring PSV at 2.80 compared to Heerenveen's 1.17, the home side's attacking prowess is clear.
Despite the high-scoring history of this fixture, with an average of 3.4 goals per game, the model identifies value in the under market. LeoVegas offers odds of 2.6 for under 3.5 goals, which the model rates at 44%, suggesting a potential edge for bettors. Meanwhile, Heerenveen's balanced and physical style might struggle to contain PSV's high press, especially in Eindhoven, where the home team wins 82% of their matches historically.
Conditions on the day may dampen the goal tally slightly, with rain expected to make play more challenging. This is factored into the numbers, pushing some punters to consider the value in under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.75, which still presents a notable edge. Still, given the dynamics, a 2-1 scoreline seems most plausible, indicating a lean towards over 2.5 goals at 76%.
PSV EindhovenForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #6xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Sergino DestRWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.22
- Ruben van BommelLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.18
- Ryan FlamingoCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
HeerenveenForm LDLDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #13xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Jacob TrenskowRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.09
- Oliver BraudeRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.19
- Marcus LindayCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen
Predicted score matrix
Heerenveen →
PSV Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.1%
0–12.0%
0–21.3%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–05.1%
1–16.3%
1–23.6%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.6%
2–25.1%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.9%
3–18.1%
3–24.7%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–09.6%
4+–111.2%
4+–26.6%
4+–32.6%
4+–4+1.0%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.3-18%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.3-07%
- 5.1-16%
Expected goals
2,80–1,17
Both teams to score
65%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 4,00
17%
215%
320%
420%
5+37%
Under 2,524%
@4.78EV+15%
Over 2,576%
@1.15
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- PSV Eindhoven to win75%
- Over 2.5 goals76%
- Sven Mijnans to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score65%
- Over 2.5 goals76%
- Sven Mijnans to score32%
- Dirk Wanner Proper to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.524% probability@4.78BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
- Under 2.524% probability@4.78NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
- Under 3.544% probability@2.63BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · PSV Eindhoven | X | 2 · Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.24 | 6.07 | EV+ 6% 10.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.24 | EV+ 5% 7.00 | 8.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.24 | 6.07 | EV+ 6% 10.40 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesPSV Eindhoven 6Draw 1Heerenveen 1
Goals: 21–6 (⌀ 3,4)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- PSV Eindhoven dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
- PSV Eindhoven have scored in 37 consecutive league matches.
- PSV Eindhoven win 82% of their home matches all-time (71 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven (24–10)
Heerenveen (11–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 9 |
| xPoints | 13.1 | 9.1 |
| xG per match | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.38 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.78 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 21 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 549 | 434 |
| Passes against per match | 273 | 358 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.2 | 27.8 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 36 |
| Set pieces | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 7.5 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 2.4 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| Other | PSV Eindhoven | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| The goalkeepers | Matej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven) | Bernt Klaverboer (Heerenveen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 22 |
| Save % | 64% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen according to our model?
The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PSV Eindhoven 75%, draw 15%, Heerenveen 10%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 76% and under at 24%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.