01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Go Ahead Eagles to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
EredivisieDe Adelaarshorst, Deventer13°3,0 mm27 km/h
Läs på svenska
Go Ahead EaglesPossession & high pressvs
Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Go Ahead Eagles (62%)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
1 · Go Ahead Eagles 62%X 21%17% Sparta Rotterdam · 2
62%
21%
17%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Go Ahead Eagles have been a reliable attacking force, finding the net in ten consecutive league matches. This run underscores their offensive potency, which is further amplified by their possession-based, high-pressing style. The model gives them a solid 62% win probability against Sparta Rotterdam, whose counter-attacking approach may struggle to contain the hosts' relentless pressure. With expected goals of 2.18 for the Eagles compared to Sparta's 1.17, the numbers clearly favor the home side.
Despite a small head-to-head sample size of eight matches since 2022, where both teams have managed three wins each, the current form and underlying metrics tilt the balance towards the Eagles. They lead in expected points (8.5 vs. 7.2) and boast a superior xG per match of 1.7 against Sparta's 1.4. These figures paint a picture of a team that not only creates more chances but also converts them with greater efficiency.
The weather might play a minor role, given the expected 3.0 mm of rain, typically dampening goal totals. However, with a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring, the model suggests that goals should still be on the cards. The Eagles also hold the defensive edge, with an xGA of 1.6 compared to Sparta's 2.2, suggesting they should limit clear chances even against Sparta's cross-heavy tactics.
Ultimately, the Eagles' consistent scoring streak and overall edge in expected metrics lead to a confident prediction of a 2-1 victory. For those seeking value, Go Ahead Eagles at odds of 1.769 with LeoVegas offers a compelling bet, providing a 9% edge over the model's 62% win probability. This assessment makes backing the home team an attractive proposition.
Go Ahead EaglesForm WLWDD
League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #7xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Mathis SurayLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.28
- Søren Østergaard TengstedtRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.04
- Victor Kaj EdvardsenCAMxG 0.32 · xT 0.17
Sparta RotterdamForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #16xT #8xP/match #15Points #12
Key players
- Milan ZonneveldFxG 0.57 · xT 0.02
- Marvin YoungCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
- Ayoni SantosLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam
Predicted score matrix
Sparta Rotterdam →
Go Ahead Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.8%
0–13.8%
0–22.4%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–07.4%
1–19.2%
1–25.2%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.3%
2–19.8%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–06.1%
3–17.1%
3–24.1%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–05.5%
4+–16.4%
4+–23.8%
4+–31.5%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,18–1,17
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.81
Over 2,565%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Go Ahead Eagles to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Richonell Margaret to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Richonell Margaret to score26%
- Cedric Hatenboer to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Go Ahead Eagles62% probability@1.79BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- 1 · Go Ahead Eagles62% probability@1.79NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
- 1 · Go Ahead Eagles62% probability@1.77LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Go Ahead Eagles | X | 2 · Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 10% 1.79 | 3.80 | 4.06 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 9% 1.77 | 4.10 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 10% 1.79 | 3.80 | 4.06 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesGo Ahead Eagles 3Draw 2Sparta Rotterdam 3
Goals: 8–9 (⌀ 2,1)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- Go Ahead Eagles have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
Go Ahead Eagles (16–12)
Sparta Rotterdam (10–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 5 |
| xPoints | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 418 | 329 |
| Passes against per match | 365 | 414 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.8 | 27.6 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| Other | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Christian Kjetil Haug (Go Ahead Eagles) | Michael Brouwer (Sparta Rotterdam) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 15 |
| Save % | 59% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam according to our model?
The model gives Go Ahead Eagles a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Go Ahead Eagles 62%, draw 21%, Sparta Rotterdam 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.