01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Bolton Wanderers or draw (1X)66%
- Under 3.5 goals71%
EFL ChampionshipToughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton10°1,1 mm16 km/h
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Bolton WanderersPossession controlvs
Bristol CityBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Bolton Wanderers (42%)
Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City · EFL Championship
1 · Bolton Wanderers 42%X 28%30% Bristol City · 2
42%
28%
30%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City (EFL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Bolton Wanderers win 42%, draw 28%, Bristol City win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Bolton Wanderers 1.42, Bristol City 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Bolton Wanderers or draw 70%, Bristol City or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT CORRECTED:
A scant head-to-head record between Bolton Wanderers and Bristol City suggests that their upcoming clash won't be defined by history but by current form and statistical insights. The model leans slightly towards the hosts, with a 42% probability of victory for Bolton against Bristol City's 30%, implying a competitive match. However, the expected goals (xG) figures indicate a tight contest, with Bolton at 1.42 and Bristol City at 1.28, hinting at a game where edges are slim and opportunities could be scarce.
Bolton's style of possession control faces a challenge against Bristol City's balanced and physical approach. Despite Bolton's higher expected goals per match at 1.3 compared to Bristol's 1.2, the visitors' superior defensive metrics (xGA of 1.3) could neutralize the hosts' attempts to dominate. This defensive solidity skews the balance slightly towards Bristol City, whose xPoints of 15.2 surpass Bolton's 12.9, suggesting they might be better equipped to convert their potential into points.
The prediction tilts towards a low-scoring affair, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), or 2-1 (9%). The forecast of 7.6 mm of rain could further suppress goal-scoring opportunities, affecting both teams' rhythm and flow. This weather impact is already factored into the model, though, which calculates a modest 51% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score.
With the data painting a picture of equilibrium and resilience, a 1-1 draw emerges as a plausible outcome, reflecting both teams' strengths and limitations.
Bolton WanderersForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #12xGA #21xT #10xP/match #20Points #15
Key players
- Josh SheehanCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
- Chris ForinoCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.03
- Ethan ErhahonCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
Bristol CityForm LWDLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #10xT #18xP/match #11Points #16
Key players
- Rob DickieCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
- Lisav Naif EissatCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
- Lorent TolajFxG 0.44 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City
Predicted score matrix
Bristol City →
Bolton Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–18.3%
0–25.5%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–09.2%
1–112.6%
1–27.8%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.8%
2–18.7%
2–25.5%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.1%
3–22.6%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,42–1,28
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.14EV+6%
Over 2,551%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Bolton Wanderers or draw (1X)66%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Samuel George Dalby to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Samuel George Dalby to score31%
- Ethan Jay Osadebawen Erhahon to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Bolton Wanderers42% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- 1 · Bolton Wanderers42% probability@2.80LeoVegasEV+19%reference odds
- 1 · Bolton Wanderers42% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bolton Wanderers | X | 2 · Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 19% 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 19% 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 19% 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 18:38
Odds movement
1+4 %
37 %32 %
2.70 → 2.80
X-4 %
29 %24 %
3.60 → 3.45
20 %
42 %37 %
2.40 → 2.40
Over 2,5+4 %
59 %54 %
1.65 → 1.71
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bolton Wanderers
Bristol City
Bolton Wanderers (15–18)
Bristol City (12–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bolton Wanderers
Bristol City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bolton Wanderers
Bristol City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 14 |
| xPoints | 12.9 | 15.2 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 341 | 280 |
| Passes against per match | 345 | 335 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.3 | 18.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Other | Bolton Wanderers | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Gavin Okeroghene Bazunu (Bolton Wanderers) | Samuel Lloyd Tickle (Bristol City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 17 |
| Save % | 70% | 55% |
| xG prevented | 67% | 28% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sheffield United – Wrexham30 October 2026 21:00 CET
- Southampton – Queens Park Rangers31 October 2026
- Lincoln City – Birmingham City31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Stoke City – Preston North End31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Norwich City – Watford31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Burnley – Portsmouth31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Wolverhampton – Cardiff City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City according to our model?
The model gives Bolton Wanderers a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bolton Wanderers 42%, draw 28%, Bristol City 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Bolton Wanderers vs Bristol City?
The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Bolton Wanderers and 1.28 for Bristol City, 2.70 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Bolton Wanderers or draw (1X) 70%, Bristol City or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.