01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Southampton to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EFL ChampionshipSt Mary's Stadium, Southampton11°18 km/h
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SouthamptonPossession controlvs
Queens Park RangersPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Southampton (61%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.55 (+1 %)
Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers · EFL Championship
1 · Southampton 61%X 21%18% Queens Park Rangers · 2
61%
21%
18%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers (EFL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Southampton win 61%, draw 21%, Queens Park Rangers win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Southampton 1.85, Queens Park Rangers 1.13. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Southampton or draw 82%, Queens Park Rangers or draw 39%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Southampton – Queens Park Rangers
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Southampton's possession-based strategy squares off against Queens Park Rangers' aggressive pressing game, setting the stage for a tactical clash shaped by contrasting styles. The hosts show a marked home advantage, winning 59% of their matches on their own turf, a statistic that aligns with the model's 61% probability of a Southampton victory. Despite this, the most likely individual scoreline is a tight 1-1 draw at 11%, with a Southampton win at 2-1 following closely behind at 10%.
The metrics reveal a nuanced picture. Southampton's expected goals per match (1.85) suggest they will likely create more high-quality chances than QPR, who sit at 1.13. However, the visitors are not without merit; their slightly better defensive figures indicate a resilience that could stifle the hosts' attacking intentions. This defensive prowess is particularly relevant given the forecasted rain, which often dampens offensive momentum, suggesting a potential struggle to convert chances into goals.
Both teams show a high likelihood of scoring, with a 57% chance that both find the net. The over 2.5 goals market also leans towards the affirmative at 57%, but the anticipated conditions might suppress an outright goal fest. The small head-to-head sample since 2023, where Southampton secured two wins, hints at precedence but is less critical than current form indicators.
Given the close expected goals numbers and the rain factor, a stalemate remains a tangible outcome. As the tension builds, keep a keen eye on how Southampton's control interacts with QPR's press, a dynamic that could tip the scales in a tight contest.
SouthamptonForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #11xP/match #8Points #4
Key players
- Jack StephensCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
- Nathan Dean Joshua Wood-GordonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Ryan Phelim ManningLBxG 0.13 · xT 0.17
Queens Park RangersForm DDDWL
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #8xP/match #4Points #9
Key players
- Jimmy DunneCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
- Ilias ChairLWxG 0.54 · xT 0.34
- Glen Adjei KamaraCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Southampton – Queens Park Rangers
Predicted score matrix
Queens Park Rangers →
Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–15.4%
0–23.2%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.1%
1–110.9%
1–26.0%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.7%
2–19.8%
2–25.5%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.4%
3–16.1%
3–23.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–14.3%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,85–1,13
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.35EV+1%
Over 2,557%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Southampton to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Cyle Christopher Larin to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Cyle Christopher Larin to score36%
- James Gerard Dunne to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.565% probability@1.55LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- Under 2.543% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- Under 4.582% probability@1.22LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Southampton | X | 2 · Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.61 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 18:38
Odds movement
1+2 %
60 %55 %
1.58 → 1.61
X-3 %
24 %19 %
4.33 → 4.20
2-2 %
23 %18 %
4.60 → 4.50
Over 2,5+3 %
64 %59 %
1.50 → 1.55
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSouthampton 2Draw 0Queens Park Rangers 0
Goals: 7–1 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Key facts
- Southampton win 59% of their home matches all-time (29 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Southampton
Queens Park Rangers
Southampton (21–10)
Queens Park Rangers (15–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Southampton
Queens Park Rangers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Southampton
Queens Park Rangers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Southampton | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 17 |
| xPoints | 17 | 17.7 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Southampton | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 444 | 368 |
| Passes against per match | 298 | 398 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 27.1 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Southampton | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| Other | Southampton | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Peretz (Southampton) | Pierce Joseph Charles (Queens Park Rangers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 31 |
| Save % | 80% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 65% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sheffield United – Wrexham30 October 2026 21:00 CET
- Lincoln City – Birmingham City31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Stoke City – Preston North End31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Norwich City – Watford31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Burnley – Portsmouth31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Wolverhampton – Cardiff City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers according to our model?
The model gives Southampton a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Southampton 61%, draw 21%, Queens Park Rangers 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Queens Park Rangers?
The model expects 1.85 goals (xG) for Southampton and 1.13 for Queens Park Rangers, 2.98 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Southampton or draw (1X) 82%, Queens Park Rangers or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.