01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Wolverhampton to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EFL ChampionshipMolineux, Wolverhampton10°17 km/h
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WolverhamptonPossession controlvs
Cardiff CityPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Wolverhampton (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Cardiff City @ 4.79 (+19 %)
Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City · EFL Championship
1 · Wolverhampton 51%X 24%25% Cardiff City · 2
51%
24%
25%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City (EFL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Wolverhampton win 51%, draw 24%, Cardiff City win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Wolverhampton 1.86, Cardiff City 1.11. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Wolverhampton or draw 75%, Cardiff City or draw 49%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Wolverhampton – Cardiff City
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
With Wolverhampton holding the edge in both points and expected points against a Cardiff side striving to gain traction, the upcoming fixture pivots on the hosts’ defensive control. Wolves’ ability to dictate play through possession aligns with their defensive prowess, conceding just 1.0 expected goals against (xGA) per match. This stability in the back will be crucial against Cardiff's attacking approach, which yields 1.9 expected goals (xG) per game. However, the visitors’ high press could disrupt Wolves’ rhythm.
The model favors Wolverhampton with a 51% chance of victory, and although both teams are capable of finding the net — a likelihood of 57% for both teams to score suggests as much — the Wolves' stronger defensive numbers hint at a possible edge. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, reflect the model's lean towards a controlled, yet competitive encounter.
Cardiff’s chances aren't negligible — a 25% chance of taking all three points — but their more porous defense, allowing an average of 1.5 xGA per match, could be their undoing against a Wolves side keen to capitalize on home advantage and the weather conditions. The expected rain could dampen attacking fluidity, particularly for a side like Cardiff that relies on high-energy play.
Given these dynamics, the likeliest outcome appears to be a Wolverhampton win, possibly by a margin of 2-1, with the potential for goals — the over 2.5 goals market sits at 57%, suggesting there might be value in considering this option, particularly if paired with Wolves to win. Bookmakers seem to have caught onto this, but disciplined bettors may find an edge in backing Wolverhampton at odds reflecting their 51% win probability, as calculated by the model.
WolverhamptonForm WLLWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #1xT #6xP/match #3Points #8
Key players
- Toti GomesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Nasser DjigaCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
- Hugo BuenoLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
Cardiff CityForm LWLWD
League ranking xG #3xGA #13xT #1xP/match #15Points #19
Key players
- Joel Matthew BaganLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.24
- Alexander Sean Pablo RobertsonCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
- Yousef SalechFxG 0.57 · xT -0.04
Match prediction: Wolverhampton – Cardiff City
Predicted score matrix
Cardiff City →
Wolverhampton →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–15.4%
0–23.1%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.2%
1–110.9%
1–25.9%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.9%
2–25.5%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.1%
3–23.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.9%
4+–14.4%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,86–1,11
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
–
Over 2,557%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Wolverhampton to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Adam James Armstrong to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Yousef Salech to score24%
- André Trindade da Costa Neto to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Cardiff City25% probability@4.79PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
- Under 3.565% probability@1.69PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- X · Draw24% probability@4.30PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wolverhampton | X | 2 · Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | EV+ 4% 4.30 | EV+ 19% 4.79 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 05:59
Odds movement
1+1 %
61 %56 %
1.60 → 1.62
X+1 %
24 %19 %
4.24 → 4.30
2+2 %
22 %17 %
4.71 → 4.79
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wolverhampton
Cardiff City
Wolverhampton (19–16)
Cardiff City (18–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wolverhampton
Cardiff City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wolverhampton
Cardiff City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wolverhampton | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 11 |
| xPoints | 18.5 | 14.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Wolverhampton | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 392 | 429 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 240 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.2 | 42.2 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Wolverhampton | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 7.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| Other | Wolverhampton | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | José Sá (Wolverhampton) | Nathan Wallace Newman Trott (Cardiff City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 44 |
| Save % | 65% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sheffield United – Wrexham30 October 2026 21:00 CET
- Southampton – Queens Park Rangers31 October 2026
- Lincoln City – Birmingham City31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Stoke City – Preston North End31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Norwich City – Watford31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Burnley – Portsmouth31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City according to our model?
The model gives Wolverhampton a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wolverhampton 51%, draw 24%, Cardiff City 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Wolverhampton vs Cardiff City?
The model expects 1.86 goals (xG) for Wolverhampton and 1.11 for Cardiff City, 2.97 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Wolverhampton or draw (1X) 75%, Cardiff City or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.