EFL ChampionshipSincil Bank, Lincoln10°14 km/h

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    Lincoln CityLincoln CityLow block & direct
    vs
    Birmingham CityBirmingham CityCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Birmingham City (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Lincoln City @ 3.35 (+13 %)

    Lincoln City vs Birmingham City · EFL Championship

    1 · Lincoln City 34%X 29%37% Birmingham City · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lincoln City vs Birmingham City (EFL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Lincoln City win 34%, draw 29%, Birmingham City win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Lincoln City 1.11, Birmingham City 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Lincoln City or draw 63%, Birmingham City or draw 66%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Lincoln City – Birmingham City

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    As Lincoln City prepare to host Birmingham City, all eyes are on a game that could pivot on the visitors' scoring form. Birmingham stride into this clash on the back of three consecutive victories, having found the net in their last ten league outings. This attacking prowess aligns with their profile as a side built for counter-attacks and crosses. Lincoln, meanwhile, are expected to rely on their direct play, though their defensive frailties might be exposed by the visitors' relentless forward thrusts.

    The statistical edge favors Birmingham, whose probability of victory stands at 37% compared to Lincoln's 34%. With expected goals leaning towards Birmingham (1.47 to Lincoln's 1.11), the numbers suggest the visitors should control the flow. The most likely scorelines, a 1-1 draw and a 0-1 win for Birmingham, indicate that while goals may be at a premium, the visitors have a slight upper hand. Rain is also set to dampen the pitch, potentially stifling free-flowing football and naturally weighting the game towards fewer goals.

    Despite Birmingham's superior points tally (20 to Lincoln's 12), xPoints tell a different story, slightly favoring the hosts (17.6 to 17.3). However, given Birmingham's form and their scoring consistency, the visitors are well-placed to grind out a result. Lincoln's defensive vulnerabilities, reflected in their higher expected goals against (1.5), could be crucial in tipping the balance.

    A 0-1 Birmingham win seems the most plausible outcome here. With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 48%, the under appears to hold marginally more value, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, low-scoring battle. Savvy punters might find value backing Birmingham to win at odds of 2.60 with Bet365, considering their impressive recent form.

    Lincoln CityLincoln City
    Form WLLLD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #16xP/match #5Points #18
    Key players
    • Robert StreetLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.25
    • Callum Roddie ElderLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.25
    • Ben HouseFxG 0.22 · xT 0.01
    Birmingham CityBirmingham City
    Form WDWWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #5xP/match #6Points #5
    Key players
    • Christoph KlarerCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
    • Tomoki IwataCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
    • Alexander William CochraneLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: Lincoln City – Birmingham City

    Predicted score matrix

    Birmingham City →
    Lincoln City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–110.7%
    0–28.2%
    0–34.0%
    0–4+2.1%
    1
    1–08.0%
    1–112.7%
    1–29.1%
    1–34.5%
    1–4+2.3%
    2
    2–04.7%
    2–16.9%
    2–25.1%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,11–1,47
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.90
    Over 2,548%
    @1.90

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Birmingham City or draw (X2)72%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Birmingham City or draw (X2)72%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Luis Ismael Vázquez to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Luis Ismael Vázquez to score28%
    • Ivan Varfolomieiev to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Lincoln City34% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
    • 1 · Lincoln City34% probability@3.35LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
    • 1 · Lincoln City34% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Lincoln CityX2 · Birmingham City
    Betsafe
    EV+ 13%
    3.35
    EV+ 1%
    3.45    		2.12
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 13%
    3.35    		3.402.05
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 13%
    3.35
    EV+ 1%
    3.45    		2.12

    Odds updated 24 Oct, 18:06

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.30 → 3.35

    X-1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.45 → 3.40

    2-1 %
    47 %42 %

    2.08 → 2.05

    Over 2,50 %
    52 %47 %

    1.88 → 1.88

    LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Birmingham City come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Birmingham City have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Lincoln City
    Birmingham City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Lincoln City (9–19)
    Birmingham City (20–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Lincoln City
    George Wickens: 82 passningar, xT 0.26WickensSonny Bradley: 79 passningar, xT 0.05BradleyConor Mcgrandles: 71 passningar, xT -0.02McgrandlesAdam Reach: 66 passningar, xT 0.53ReachAyodeji Joshua Oluwapelumi Akinola Elerewe: 61 passningar, xT 0.17ElereweTom Bayliss: 47 passningar, xT 0.04BaylissAndrei Coubis: 45 passningar, xT 0.15CoubisRyley Ben Towler: 45 passningar, xT 0.52TowlerIvan Varfolomieiev: 41 passningar, xT -0.03VarfolomieievBen House: 35 passningar, xT -0.01HouseYunus Emre Konak: 29 passningar, xT 0.03Konak
    Birmingham City
    Christoph Klarer: 250 passningar, xT 0.24KlarerAlexander William Cochrane: 240 passningar, xT 0.74CochraneBright Osayi-Samuel: 223 passningar, xT 0.77Osayi-SamuelTomoki Iwata: 199 passningar, xT 0.38IwataPhil Yannik Neumann: 176 passningar, xT 0.62NeumannJhon Solís: 137 passningar, xT 0.05SolísLiam Millar: 122 passningar, xT 1.1MillarJay Stansfield: 99 passningar, xT 0.58StansfieldJames Beadle: 80 passningar, xT 0.21BeadlePatrick Roberts: 75 passningar, xT 0.36RobertsCarlos Vicente Robles: 74 passningar, xT -0.04Robles
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Lincoln City
    George Wickens: 82 passningar, xT 0.26WickensSonny Bradley: 79 passningar, xT 0.05BradleyConor Mcgrandles: 71 passningar, xT -0.02McgrandlesAdam Reach: 66 passningar, xT 0.53ReachAyodeji Joshua Oluwapelumi Akinola Elerewe: 61 passningar, xT 0.17ElereweTom Bayliss: 47 passningar, xT 0.04BaylissAndrei Coubis: 45 passningar, xT 0.15CoubisRyley Ben Towler: 45 passningar, xT 0.52TowlerIvan Varfolomieiev: 41 passningar, xT -0.03VarfolomieievBen House: 35 passningar, xT -0.01HouseYunus Emre Konak: 29 passningar, xT 0.03Konak
    Birmingham City
    Christoph Klarer: 250 passningar, xT 0.24KlarerAlexander William Cochrane: 240 passningar, xT 0.74CochraneBright Osayi-Samuel: 223 passningar, xT 0.77Osayi-SamuelTomoki Iwata: 199 passningar, xT 0.38IwataPhil Yannik Neumann: 176 passningar, xT 0.62NeumannJhon Solís: 137 passningar, xT 0.05SolísLiam Millar: 122 passningar, xT 1.1MillarJay Stansfield: 99 passningar, xT 0.58StansfieldJames Beadle: 80 passningar, xT 0.21BeadlePatrick Roberts: 75 passningar, xT 0.36RobertsCarlos Vicente Robles: 74 passningar, xT -0.04Robles

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLincoln CityBirmingham City
    Points1220
    xPoints17.617.3
    xG per match1.41.7
    xGA per match1.51.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.2
    Playing styleLincoln CityBirmingham City
    Build-up efficiency0.360.33
    Field tilt0.260.56
    xT per match0.861.2
    xTA per match1.10.84
    Won balls, offensive half2727
    Pressing intensity0.250.24
    Pressing efficiency0.260.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.31
    Entries into the box per match1414
    Entries into the box against1711
    Pass completion %0.610.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.580.66
    Passes per match182303
    Passes against per match430291
    Switches of play per match16.220.5
    Long balls per match2828
    Set piecesLincoln CityBirmingham City
    xG from free kicks0.120.07
    Corners per match3.75.7
    Corners against per match8.34.5
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.280.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.58
    OtherLincoln CityBirmingham City
    Throw-in control0.670.69
    The goalkeepersGeorge Wickens (Lincoln City)James Beadle (Birmingham City)
    Saves3930
    Save %67%73%
    xG prevented39%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Lincoln City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Birmingham City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Lincoln City vs Birmingham City according to our model?

    The model gives Birmingham City a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lincoln City 34%, draw 29%, Birmingham City 37%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Lincoln City vs Birmingham City?

    The model expects 1.11 goals (xG) for Lincoln City and 1.47 for Birmingham City, 2.59 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Lincoln City or draw (1X) 63%, Birmingham City or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 71%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.