01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Middlesbrough to win75%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
EFL ChampionshipRiverside Stadium, Middlesbrough10°5,7 mm10 km/h
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MiddlesbroughPossession & high pressvs
Charlton AthleticCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Middlesbrough (75%)
Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic · EFL Championship
1 · Middlesbrough 75%X 16%9% Charlton Athletic · 2
75%
16%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic (EFL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Middlesbrough win 75%, draw 16%, Charlton Athletic win 9%. Expected goals (xG): Middlesbrough 2.60, Charlton Athletic 0.85. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Middlesbrough or draw 91%, Charlton Athletic or draw 25%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Middlesbrough's recent form is an imposing backdrop; they are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches. This streak suggests a strong likelihood of maintaining momentum against Charlton Athletic. The hosts have consistently found the net, scoring in 11 consecutive league encounters, a testament to their effective possession-based play and high pressing strategy. Their expected goals of 2.60 against the visitors' 0.85 further highlight the anticipated dominance.
Charlton's counter-attacking style could struggle to find effectiveness against Middlesbrough's pressing game. While the visitors excel at utilizing crosses as part of their counter-attacks, the limited head-to-head sample of just two games since 2023, split at one win apiece, offers little reassurance that they can translate this into success at Riverside Stadium.
The model gives a 75% probability of a home win, with the most likely scorelines favoring a 2-0 victory at 11% and a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals. The wet conditions, with 4.2 mm of rain expected, might dampen scoring opportunities slightly, yet the expected goals and both teams to score probabilities indicate a match that could lean towards multiple goals. The model seems to have accounted for the weather's impact.
While Charlton has amassed a respectable 14 points this season, they trail behind Middlesbrough's 22. Considering xPoints and xGA metrics, the hosts exhibit superiority in both offensive and defensive metrics.
For bettors, the value lies in the over 2.5 goals market, with a 67% model likelihood. Expect the hosts to capitalize on their robust form, likely securing a 2-0 or 3-0 victory.
MiddlesbroughForm DDWWD
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #1Points #2
Key players
- Luke AylingCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.28
- Aidan MorrisCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
- Callum BrittainRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
Charlton AthleticForm DLDDL
League ranking xG #21xGA #18xT #21xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Conor James CoventryCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.15
- Billy Dawson KoumetioCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic
Predicted score matrix
Charlton Athletic →
Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.4%
0–12.5%
0–21.1%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.1%
1–17.2%
1–23.0%
1–30.8%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–010.8%
2–19.1%
2–23.9%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–09.3%
3–17.9%
3–23.4%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–011.3%
4+–19.6%
4+–24.1%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,60–0,85
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,533%
@2.89
Over 2,567%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Middlesbrough to win75%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- William Lankshear to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- William Lankshear to score39%
- Oliver William Skipp to be booked23%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Middlesbrough | X | 2 · Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.26 | 5.65 | 10.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.32 | 5.25 | 7.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.26 | 5.65 | 10.50 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Charlton Athletic win since 24 October — the odds have shortened from 9.00 to 7.50 (−17%).
1+5 %
74 %69 %
1.26 → 1.32
X-9 %
19 %14 %
5.75 → 5.25
2-17 %
14 %9 %
9.00 → 7.50
Over 2,5+3 %
68 %63 %
1.40 → 1.44
LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesMiddlesbrough 1Draw 0Charlton Athletic 1
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Key facts
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches.
- Middlesbrough have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Middlesbrough
Charlton Athletic
Middlesbrough (22–16)
Charlton Athletic (10–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Middlesbrough
Charlton Athletic
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Middlesbrough
Charlton Athletic
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Middlesbrough | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 22 | 14 |
| xPoints | 18.8 | 14 |
| xG per match | 2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Middlesbrough | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.29 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.75 |
| xTA per match | 0.75 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 469 | 260 |
| Passes against per match | 293 | 410 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.4 | 19.1 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Middlesbrough | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 5.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 6.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| Other | Middlesbrough | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Radek Vítek (Middlesbrough) | Arthur Chukwuezugo Okonkwo (Charlton Athletic) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 38 |
| Save % | 62% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sheffield United – Wrexham30 October 2026 21:00 CET
- Southampton – Queens Park Rangers31 October 2026
- Lincoln City – Birmingham City31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Stoke City – Preston North End31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Norwich City – Watford31 October 2026 13:30 CET
- Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Burnley – Portsmouth31 October 2026 16:00 CET
- Wolverhampton – Cardiff City31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic according to our model?
The model gives Middlesbrough a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Middlesbrough 75%, draw 16%, Charlton Athletic 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic?
The model expects 2.60 goals (xG) for Middlesbrough and 0.85 for Charlton Athletic, 3.45 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Middlesbrough or draw (1X) 91%, Charlton Athletic or draw (X2) 25% and no draw (12) 84%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.