Burnley vs Portsmouth Prediction: Home win 44% (31 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship31 October 2026 16:00 CETTurf Moor, Burnley9°1,1 mm13 km/h

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BurnleyPossession control

PortsmouthCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Burnley (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Portsmouth @ 3.55 (+8 %)

1 · Burnley 44%X 26%30% Portsmouth · 2

44%

26%

30%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Burnley vs Portsmouth (EFL Championship, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Burnley win 44%, draw 26%, Portsmouth win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Burnley 1.42, Portsmouth 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Burnley or draw 70%, Portsmouth or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Burnley – Portsmouth

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Burnley's remarkable ability to find the net in 16 consecutive league matches stands out as a beacon of consistency. Despite their mid-table position with 8 points, they have demonstrated a habit of scoring that cannot be ignored. Portsmouth, with a solid 15 points, travels to Turf Moor with a more potent defensive record, evidenced by a lower xGA of 1.1 compared to Burnley’s 1.6. However, the small head-to-head sample since 2023 slightly favors the hosts, with a win and a draw.

The expected goals tell a tale of narrow margins: Burnley at 1.42 and Portsmouth at 1.23. This aligns with the most likely scorelines, where a 1-1 draw (13%) is the favorite, followed by a 1-0 home win (10%). Burnley’s possession-based play will clash with Portsmouth’s counter-attacking style, which could lead to a tense battle for control. The expected rain and its potential suppression of goals are already factored into the model's predictions, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the tactical chess match.

While Portsmouth's edge in points and slightly better xG metrics suggest they might have the upper hand, Burnley’s consistent scoring ability and possession strategy might just tip the balance their way. The model gives Burnley a 44% chance of victory, with Portsmouth at 30%, which suggests a slight lean towards a home win. However, the tightness of the expected goal statistics underscores the possibility of a draw.

For bettors looking for value, Bet365 offers odds of 3.60 for a draw, which is particularly appealing given the forecasted likelihood of this outcome (26%). With both teams expected to score (54%), a 1-1 result fits the narrative of this closely matched contest. The over 2.5 goals market sits precariously at 49%, hinting at a cautious approach if considering higher goal totals.

Burnley

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #12xP/match #18Points #22

Key players

Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
Kyle WalkerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Igor Julio dos Santos de PauloCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Portsmouth

Form DLWWD

League ranking xG #13xGA #3xT #19xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Terry DevlinRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Zak SwansonLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Colby BishopFxG 0.15 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Burnley – Portsmouth

Predicted score matrix

Portsmouth →

Burnley →

0–07.4%

0–18.4%

0–25.4%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.7%

1–112.7%

1–27.6%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.1%

2–18.7%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.3%

3–14.1%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,42–1,23

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.92

Over 2,549%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Burnley or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Burnley or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Jacob Bruun Larsen to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Jacob Bruun Larsen to score25%
Marlon Pack to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Portsmouth30% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
2 · Portsmouth30% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
2 · Portsmouth30% probability@3.45LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burnley	X	2 · Portsmouth
Betsafe	2.02	3.50	EV+ 8% 3.55
LeoVegas	2.00	3.45	EV+ 5% 3.45
Nordicbet	2.02	3.50	EV+ 8% 3.55

Odds updated 24 Oct, 21:37

Odds movement

1-9 %

47 %42 %

2.22 → 2.02

X+6 %

30 %25 %

3.30 → 3.50

2+9 %

30 %25 %

3.25 → 3.55

Over 2,5-2 %

53 %48 %

1.92 → 1.88

Nordicbet · 3 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Burnley 1Draw 1Portsmouth 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

Key facts

Burnley have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burnley

Portsmouth

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burnley (16–21)

Portsmouth (14–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burnley

Portsmouth

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burnley

Portsmouth

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burnley	Portsmouth
Points	8	15
xPoints	13.6	15.5
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.19

Playing style	Burnley	Portsmouth
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.35
Field tilt	0.47	0.56
xT per match	0.94	0.81
xTA per match	0.98	0.83
Won balls, offensive half	18	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.33
Entries into the box per match	10	13
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.67
Passes per match	370	312
Passes against per match	400	271
Switches of play per match	29.3	28.4
Long balls per match	31	35

Set pieces	Burnley	Portsmouth
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	4.7	5.9
Corners against per match	4.8	4.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.6

Other	Burnley	Portsmouth
Throw-in control	0.69	0.74

The goalkeepers	Max Weiß (Burnley)	Nicolas Schmid (Portsmouth)
Saves	16	15
Save %	50%	60%
xG prevented	34%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Burnley

Fixtures, form & tips

Portsmouth

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burnley vs Portsmouth according to our model?

The model gives Burnley a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burnley 44%, draw 26%, Portsmouth 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Portsmouth?

The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Burnley and 1.23 for Portsmouth, 2.65 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Burnley or draw (1X) 70%, Portsmouth or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.