Preston North End vs Millwall Prediction: Away win 45% (10 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship10 October 2026 16:00 CESTDeepdale, Preston11°4,6 mm26 km/h

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Preston North EndLow block & direct

MillwallLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Millwall (45%)

1 · Preston North End 26%X 28%45% Millwall · 2

26%

28%

45%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Preston North End – Millwall

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Millwall's sharp edge in expected goals stands out. Averaging 2.0 xG per match compared to Preston's 1.4, the visitors have demonstrated a more potent attack this season. Their style mirrors that of the hosts, with both sides favoring a low defensive block and direct play. Despite this similarity, Millwall's offensive efficiency has translated into results, reflected in their 11 points against Preston's four, and their unbeaten head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small sample size of four matches.

The model leans heavily towards Millwall, giving them a 45% chance of victory compared to Preston North End's 26%. Given Millwall's superior xPoints (13.8 vs. 11.2) and their consistent ability to convert opportunities into goals, the visitors seem well-positioned to secure another win. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, at 13%, is closely followed by a 0-1 Millwall victory at 10%, suggesting a tight contest but with the visitors having the upper hand.

Weather conditions, with 6.6 mm of rain expected, could suppress the scoring potential slightly, but this is already factored into the model's numbers. Both teams are projected to score in 53% of scenarios, indicating a moderate likelihood of shared goals rather than a high-scoring encounter. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 48%, suggesting a cautious approach to expecting a substantial goal tally.

For bettors, the standout angle is Millwall's value at odds of 2.45 with LeoVegas. Given the model's 45% probability for a Millwall victory, this presents a 10% edge, a significant opportunity for those looking to capitalize on Millwall's current form and statistical superiority. While nothing is guaranteed, the numbers suggest Millwall could walk away with a narrow victory, likely in a 0-1 or 1-2 fashion.

Preston North End

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #12xP/match #10Points #23

Key players

Alfie Sean DevineRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
Johnny KennyFxG 0.45 · xT 0.07
Jordan ThompsonCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13

Millwall

Form LWLDD

League ranking xG #2xGA #15xT #4xP/match #3Points #11

Key players

Lyndon John DykesFxG 0.61 · xT 0.06
Josh CoburnFxG 0.52 · xT 0.15
Casper De NorreCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Preston North End – Millwall

Predicted score matrix

Millwall →

Preston North End →

0–07.8%

0–110.3%

0–27.5%

0–33.6%

0–4+1.7%

1–08.4%

1–112.8%

1–28.8%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.1%

2–17.3%

2–25.2%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.0%

3–12.9%

3–22.0%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,17–1,42

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.98EV+3%

Over 2,548%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Millwall to win45%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Millwall to win45%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Lyndon John Dykes to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Lyndon John Dykes to score27%
Alistair Edward McCann to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Millwall45% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
2 · Millwall45% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
2 · Millwall45% probability@2.45LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Preston North End	X	2 · Millwall
Betsafe	2.70	3.40	EV+ 14% 2.52
LeoVegas	2.70	3.35	EV+ 10% 2.45
Nordicbet	2.70	3.40	EV+ 14% 2.52

Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

10 %

37 %32 %

2.70 → 2.70

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.35

20 %

40 %35 %

2.45 → 2.45

Over 2,5+2 %

54 %49 %

1.80 → 1.83

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Preston North End 0Draw 2Millwall 2

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Preston North End

Millwall

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Preston North End (8–15)

Millwall (15–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Preston North End

Millwall

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Preston North End

Millwall

The teams in numbers

Performance	Preston North End	Millwall
Points	4	11
xPoints	11.2	13.8
xG per match	1.4	2
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.39
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.3

Playing style	Preston North End	Millwall
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.42	0.36
xT per match	0.94	1.2
xTA per match	0.9	1
Won balls, offensive half	23	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	15
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.69	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.65
Passes per match	267	262
Passes against per match	379	350
Switches of play per match	20.6	26.2
Long balls per match	28	35

Set pieces	Preston North End	Millwall
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.02
Corners per match	5.3	4.4
Corners against per match	5.5	7.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.46

Other	Preston North End	Millwall
Throw-in control	0.67	0.72

The goalkeepers	Daniel Lønne Iversen (Preston North End)	Maxime Teremoana Crocombe (Millwall)
Saves	25	13
Save %	64%	62%
xG prevented	38%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Preston North End

Fixtures, form & tips

Millwall

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Preston North End vs Millwall according to our model?

The model gives Millwall a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Preston North End 26%, draw 28%, Millwall 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.