Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

EFL League One30 August 2026Plough Lane, London18°1,7 mm21 km/h

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WimbledonPossession control

1–0

Wigan AthleticPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Wimbledon (39%)

1 · Wimbledon 39%X 26%35% Wigan Athletic · 2

39%

26%

35%

Analysis: Wimbledon – Wigan Athletic

Oscar Nilsson · 27 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Points can be deceiving in football. Wimbledon, despite their solitary point so far, stand as slight favorites against a Wigan Athletic side on a four-match losing streak. The numbers suggest a tightly contested match, with Wimbledon having a 39% chance of winning according to the model, marginally ahead of Wigan's 35%. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, but there's a significant edge in betting on the home side at odds of 3.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet—each offering a 24% edge based on the model's assessment.

While both teams favor possession control, neither has shown an overwhelming capacity to convert that into goals. Wimbledon’s expected goals per match stand at a humble 1.14 compared to Wigan’s slightly better 1.21. The expected goals allowed figures suggest Wimbledon have a tighter defense, yet they still average 1.2 xGA per match. With 2.4 mm of rain predicted, goal scoring might see further suppression, which is already factored into the model’s forecast.

The head-to-head record since 2023 shows Wimbledon and Wigan have each won once, making the sample too small to draw definitive conclusions. However, Wigan clearly has the superior xG figures, and this clash will likely hinge on whether they can translate that into breaking their losing streak. Despite this, Wimbledon's home advantage and Wigan's current form tilt the scale slightly in the hosts' favor.

Given the low probability of over 2.5 goals at 42% and a modest 48% for both teams to score, the numbers suggest a cagey affair ahead. The market seems to have overlooked Wimbledon's potential for an upset here. With significant value at odds of 3.15, backing the home side with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet is a compelling angle for this matchup.

Wimbledon

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #24xGA #12xT #15xP/match #23Points #23

Key players

Omar Khaled ChaabanFxG 0.30 · xT 0.04
Marcus BrowneFxG 0.25 · xT 0.03
Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20

Wigan Athletic

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #19xT #3xP/match #21Points #24

Key players

Sonny Tufail PerkinsFxG 0.91 · xT -0.03
Max Mcauley PowerCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
Jensen Guy WeirCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.16

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Wimbledon 39% · Draw 26% · Wigan Athletic 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AFC WimbledonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,04fair 15,36-22 %

Miss

Matchresultat - WiganBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,50fair 13,81-38 %

Miss

Match prediction: Wimbledon – Wigan Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Wigan Athletic →

Wimbledon →

0–09.9%

0–111.1%

0–27.0%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.5%

1–113.5%

1–27.9%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.2%

2–17.5%

2–24.5%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.4%

3–12.9%

3–21.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-111%
3.1-011%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,14–1,21

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.75EV+2%

Over 2,542%

@2.13

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wimbledon or draw (1X)63%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wimbledon or draw (1X)63%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Marcus Browne to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Marcus Browne to score20%
Jake Kenny Reeves to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Wimbledon39% probability@3.22PinnacleEV+27%reference odds
1 · Wimbledon39% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
1 · Wimbledon39% probability@3.15BetssonEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wimbledon	X	2 · Wigan Athletic
Bet365	EV+ 2% 2.60	3.10	2.55
Betsafe	EV+ 24% 3.15	3.20	2.22
Betsson	EV+ 24% 3.15	3.20	2.22
Nordicbet	EV+ 24% 3.15	3.20	2.22
Pinnacle	EV+ 27% 3.22	3.32	2.32

Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:15

Odds movement

1+4 %

32 %27 %

3.11 → 3.22

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.32

20 %

44 %39 %

2.32 → 2.32

Over 2,5+1 %

48 %43 %

2.10 → 2.13

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Wimbledon 1Draw 0Wigan Athletic 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

Key facts

Wigan Athletic have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wimbledon

Wigan Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wimbledon (0–3)

Wigan Athletic (2–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wimbledon

Wigan Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wimbledon

Wigan Athletic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wimbledon	Wigan Athletic
Points	1	0
xPoints	1.4	1.9
xG per match	0.41	1.8
xGA per match	1.2	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.03	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.16

Playing style	Wimbledon	Wigan Athletic
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.57	0.67
xT per match	0.84	1.4
xTA per match	1.1	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	32	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.39	0.4
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.34
Entries into the box per match	10	15
Entries into the box against	13	8
Pass completion %	0.7	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	295	420
Passes against per match	315	193
Switches of play per match	19.1	17
Long balls per match	27	22

Set pieces	Wimbledon	Wigan Athletic
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.09
Corners per match	6.2	4.5
Corners against per match	5.7	5.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.73	0.55

Other	Wimbledon	Wigan Athletic
Throw-in control	0.73	0.8

The goalkeepers	Daniel Liam Sweeney (Wimbledon)	Joseph Anthony Walsh (Wigan Athletic)
Saves	4	3
Save %	100%	38%
xG prevented	100%	11%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wimbledon

Fixtures, form & tips

Wigan Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic according to our model?

The model gives Wimbledon a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wimbledon 39%, draw 26%, Wigan Athletic 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.