Blackpool vs Mansfield Town Prediction: Home win 36% (24 Oct 2026)

EFL League One24 October 2026 16:00 CESTBloomfield Road, Blackpool9°4,8 mm40 km/h

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BlackpoolLow block & direct

Mansfield TownPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Blackpool (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.50 (+10 %)

1 · Blackpool 36%X 31%32% Mansfield Town · 2

36%

31%

32%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Blackpool vs Mansfield Town (EFL League One, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Blackpool win 36%, draw 31%, Mansfield Town win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Blackpool 1.50, Mansfield Town 1.30. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Blackpool or draw 68%, Mansfield Town or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Blackpool – Mansfield Town

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: A 36% win probability for Blackpool sets this matchup against Mansfield Town on a knife-edge. The odds slightly favor the hosts, but the edge is razor-thin when weighed against a 32% chance for the visitors and a 31% draw probability. The most likely scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw at 12%, closely followed by a 2-1 or 1-0 win for Blackpool, each at 9%. With both teams expected to score and the model suggesting a lean towards over 2.5 goals at 53%, goals might be on the cards despite the defensive tendencies.

The small head-to-head sample suggests a slight advantage for Mansfield Town with two wins to Blackpool's one. However, the hosts boast a higher xG per match at 1.8 compared to the visitors' 1.6. Mansfield Town, on the other hand, excels defensively with an xGA of 1.3, indicating a more controlled approach, which might counter Blackpool's direct style.

Based on the model, Blackpool holds a slight edge as favorites, but the contest remains tight given the close probabilities across outcomes. With both teams showcasing contrasting styles, the lean favors the hosts edging a narrow win — perhaps a 2-1 scoreline where the over 2.5 goals probability aligns with the predicted outcomes.

Blackpool

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #23xT #19xP/match #13Points #18

Key players

Cj HamiltonFxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
Joshua Luke BowlerRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.18
Josh EarlCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08

Mansfield Town

Form LDDWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #3xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Samuel ReedCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.16
Jon RussellRWxG 0.49 · xT 0.14
Stephen MclaughlinLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.35

Match prediction: Blackpool – Mansfield Town

Predicted score matrix

Mansfield Town →

Blackpool →

0–06.4%

0–17.6%

0–25.2%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.8%

1–112.2%

1–27.7%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.8%

2–18.9%

2–25.8%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.4%

3–14.4%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,50–1,30

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.10

Over 2,553%

@1.67

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Blackpool or draw (1X)67%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Blackpool or draw (1X)67%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Thomas Joel Bloxham to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Thomas Joel Bloxham to score19%
Samuel Reed to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.50LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
Under 3.569% probability@1.44LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Blackpool	X	2 · Mansfield Town
LeoVegas	2.38	EV+ 10% 3.50	2.60

Odds updated 19 Oct, 04:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Mansfield Town win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.88 to 2.60 (−10%).

1+6 %

42 %37 %

2.25 → 2.38

X+3 %

29 %24 %

3.40 → 3.50

2-10 %

36 %31 %

2.88 → 2.60

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Blackpool 1Draw 1Mansfield Town 2

Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Blackpool

Mansfield Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Blackpool (13–14)

Mansfield Town (13–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Blackpool

Mansfield Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Blackpool

Mansfield Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Blackpool	Mansfield Town
Points	8	12
xPoints	11.1	13.4
xG per match	1.8	1.6
xGA per match	2.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.22

Playing style	Blackpool	Mansfield Town
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.38	0.52
xT per match	0.79	1.2
xTA per match	1.8	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	22	29
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	17	11
Pass completion %	0.68	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.64
Passes per match	268	283
Passes against per match	334	316
Switches of play per match	16.4	26.8
Long balls per match	23	37

Set pieces	Blackpool	Mansfield Town
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.06
Corners per match	4.8	4.9
Corners against per match	8.7	4.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.68

Other	Blackpool	Mansfield Town
Throw-in control	0.68	0.67

The goalkeepers	Bailey Peacock Farrell (Blackpool)	Liam Roberts (Mansfield Town)
Saves	41	15
Save %	76%	65%
xG prevented	59%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Blackpool

Fixtures, form & tips

Mansfield Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Blackpool vs Mansfield Town according to our model?

The model gives Blackpool a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Blackpool 36%, draw 31%, Mansfield Town 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Blackpool vs Mansfield Town?

The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Blackpool and 1.30 for Mansfield Town, 2.80 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Blackpool or draw (1X) 68%, Mansfield Town or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.