EFL League OneValley Parade, Bradford14°20 km/h

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    Bradford CityBradford CityPossession control
    vs
    BarnsleyBarnsleyPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Bradford City (57%)

    Bradford City vs Barnsley · EFL League One

    1 · Bradford City 57%X 23%21% Barnsley · 2

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    Analysis: Bradford City – Barnsley

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Bradford City's recent form is the standout figure in this matchup against Barnsley. With three consecutive victories, the hosts have momentum on their side. This winning streak aligns well with their robust home record, securing 63% victories over the 27 matches played there. The odds favor Bradford City with a 57% win probability, a clear nod towards their current dominance.

    Barnsley, in contrast, has struggled this season, holding only eight points compared to Bradford's 15. Although their xG per match of 1.5 suggests they can create chances, the visitors suffer defensively with an xGA of 1.3, indicating potential vulnerabilities that Bradford could exploit. The statistical advantage lies with the home team, bolstered by an expected goals tally of 1.61 against Barnsley's 0.92.

    The head-to-head record between these sides is limited, with just two draws since 2023. This small sample size shouldn't overshadow the overall trend. Bradford's control-oriented style is poised to stifle Barnsley's similar approach, giving the home side an edge in dictating play. The probability of a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline aligns with this dynamic, with both teams scoring sitting at just 49%.

    Oddly, the over 2.5 goals market offers no clear direction at 46%, reflecting the balanced potential for goals against the current defensive setups. The model's numbers suggest a tight game, more likely to stay under the threshold.

    The sharpest angle here lies in Bradford City's win at 57%, underscored by their favorable form and home advantage. Anyone looking for value should consider the 1-0 scoreline, with Unibet offering competitive odds at 12%. This line reflects the precise confluence of Bradford's current strength and Barnsley's defensive frailties.

    Bradford CityBradford City
    Form LLWWW
    League ranking xG #20xGA #2xT #11xP/match #6Points #1
    Key players
    • Bobby Michael PointonLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.20
    • Ibou Omar TourayLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
    • Joshua Tyler NeufvilleRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20
    BarnsleyBarnsley
    Form WWLLD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #13xP/match #12Points #18
    Key players
    • Reyes Demar Uriah ClearyLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.24
    • Luca John ConnellFxG 0.10 · xT 0.20
    • Josh EarlCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Bradford City – Barnsley

    Predicted score matrix

    Barnsley →
    Bradford City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.3%
    0–17.0%
    0–23.4%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.5%
    1–112.1%
    1–25.4%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–19.5%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.1%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.2%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-012%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,61–0,92
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    –
    Over 2,546%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bradford City to win57%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.64

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bradford City to win57%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Bobby Michael Pointon to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Bobby Michael Pointon to score29%
    • Joshua John Francis Earl to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Bradford City 0Draw 2Barnsley 0
    Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Bradford City come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Bradford City win 63% of their home matches all-time (27 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bradford City
    Barnsley
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bradford City (7–4)
    Barnsley (7–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 163 passningar, xT 0.36TourayAden William James Baldwin: 155 passningar, xT 0.21BaldwinJoshua Tyler Neufville: 135 passningar, xT 0.87NeufvilleCallum Alexander Connolly: 132 passningar, xT 0.11ConnollyMatthew Pennington: 111 passningar, xT 0.3PenningtonAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 104 passningar, xT 0.25SarcevicJon Douglas McCracken: 85 passningar, xT 0.15McCrackenBobby Michael Pointon: 82 passningar, xT 0.7PointonMacaulay Gillesphey: 78 passningar, xT 0.31GillespheyGeorge Christopher John Pratt: 64 passningar, xT 0.19PrattAdam Lee Phillips: 54 passningar, xT -0.06Phillips
    Barnsley
    Sam Rodin Gale: 176 passningar, xT 0.33GaleArley Kay: 169 passningar, xT 0.42KayConnor Oriordan: 133 passningar, xT 0.22OriordanTyrese Noslin: 127 passningar, xT 0.55NoslinCameron Alexander McGeehan: 123 passningar, xT -0.02McGeehanRogan Ravenhill: 106 passningar, xT 0.02RavenhillJonathan Patrick Richard Bland: 82 passningar, xT 0.13BlandPatrick John Kelly: 78 passningar, xT 0.54KellyLuca John Connell: 57 passningar, xT 0.23ConnellReyes Demar Uriah Cleary: 36 passningar, xT 0.92ClearyJack Timothy Shepherd: 21 passningar, xT 0Shepherd
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 163 passningar, xT 0.36TourayAden William James Baldwin: 155 passningar, xT 0.21BaldwinJoshua Tyler Neufville: 135 passningar, xT 0.87NeufvilleCallum Alexander Connolly: 132 passningar, xT 0.11ConnollyMatthew Pennington: 111 passningar, xT 0.3PenningtonAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 104 passningar, xT 0.25SarcevicJon Douglas McCracken: 85 passningar, xT 0.15McCrackenBobby Michael Pointon: 82 passningar, xT 0.7PointonMacaulay Gillesphey: 78 passningar, xT 0.31GillespheyGeorge Christopher John Pratt: 64 passningar, xT 0.19PrattAdam Lee Phillips: 54 passningar, xT -0.06Phillips
    Barnsley
    Sam Rodin Gale: 176 passningar, xT 0.33GaleArley Kay: 169 passningar, xT 0.42KayConnor Oriordan: 133 passningar, xT 0.22OriordanTyrese Noslin: 127 passningar, xT 0.55NoslinCameron Alexander McGeehan: 123 passningar, xT -0.02McGeehanRogan Ravenhill: 106 passningar, xT 0.02RavenhillJonathan Patrick Richard Bland: 82 passningar, xT 0.13BlandPatrick John Kelly: 78 passningar, xT 0.54KellyLuca John Connell: 57 passningar, xT 0.23ConnellReyes Demar Uriah Cleary: 36 passningar, xT 0.92ClearyJack Timothy Shepherd: 21 passningar, xT 0Shepherd

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBradford CityBarnsley
    Points158
    xPoints10.39.7
    xG per match1.11.5
    xGA per match0.861.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.150.21
    Playing styleBradford CityBarnsley
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.590.49
    xT per match10.94
    xTA per match0.820.95
    Won balls, offensive half3524
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.370.4
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.370.37
    Entries into the box per match1314
    Entries into the box against1111
    Pass completion %0.620.65
    Pass completion % under pressure0.570.6
    Passes per match264261
    Passes against per match286229
    Switches of play per match26.320.1
    Long balls per match3627
    Set piecesBradford CityBarnsley
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match6.58.3
    Corners against per match6.44.7
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.53
    First touch, defensive corners %0.680.58
    OtherBradford CityBarnsley
    Throw-in control0.670.67
    The goalkeepersJon Douglas McCracken (Bradford City)Rogan Ravenhill (Barnsley)
    Saves1116
    Save %73%57%
    xG prevented67%39%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Bradford City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Barnsley
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bradford City vs Barnsley according to our model?

    The model gives Bradford City a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bradford City 57%, draw 23%, Barnsley 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.