01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Stevenage or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
EFL League OneLamex Stadium, Stevenage14°0,6 mm14 km/h
Läs på svenska
StevenagePossession controlvs
Sheffield WednesdayPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Stevenage (41%)
Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday · EFL League One
1 · Stevenage 41%X 29%30% Sheffield Wednesday · 2
41%
29%
30%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Stevenage – Sheffield Wednesday
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The clash between Stevenage and Sheffield Wednesday sets up as a battle for control, with both sides favoring possession-based play. This stylistic similarity suggests a midfield-dominated affair, where breaking down defenses could be challenging. Sheffield Wednesday's unbeaten streak in their last five league matches gives them a momentum edge, yet the probabilities tilt slightly in favor of the hosts, with Stevenage given a 41% chance of winning by the model.
Despite this edge, the visitors boast better numbers in crucial areas. Sheffield Wednesday's superior xG of 2.0 per match far surpasses Stevenage's 1.0, indicating a higher potential to create scoring opportunities. Additionally, the visitors' xPoints of 11.3 compared to Stevenage's 9.6 further highlight their ability to capitalize on these chances. However, Stevenage does edge defensively, with a marginally better xGA of 1.0 against Sheffield Wednesday's 1.2, suggesting the hosts might be more resilient at the back.
Given the calculated probabilities, the odds lean toward a low-scoring affair. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-0, or even 0-0 emphasize the tight nature of the encounter. With only a 42% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability for both teams to score, the under 2.5 goals market presents itself as a viable consideration.
Although this is not a guarantee, the numbers suggest enough potential for an upset against the form book, making Stevenage the sharpest angle of approach based on the model's lean.
StevenageForm DDWWL
League ranking xG #21xGA #4xT #18xP/match #13Points #14
Key players
- Jamie ReidFxG 0.09 · xT 0.01
- Oliver SandersonRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.13
- Carl PiergianniCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Sheffield WednesdayForm WWWDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #7xT #9xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Jamal LoweFxG 0.94 · xT 0.09
- Kieran Yusuf MorrisonFxG 0.18 · xT 0.12
- Callum SlatteryRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Stevenage – Sheffield Wednesday
Predicted score matrix
Sheffield Wednesday →
Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.8%
0–19.7%
0–25.5%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–011.7%
1–113.4%
1–27.0%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.8%
2–18.4%
2–24.5%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.3%
3–13.6%
3–21.9%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,29–1,08
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
121%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
–
Over 2,542%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Stevenage or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Joshua Brendan David Magennis to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Jamal Akua Lowe to score25%
- Callum Slattery to be booked24%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Stevenage
Sheffield Wednesday
Stevenage (11–8)
Sheffield Wednesday (13–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Stevenage
Sheffield Wednesday
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Stevenage
Sheffield Wednesday
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Stevenage | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 14 |
| xPoints | 9.6 | 11.3 |
| xG per match | 1 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.61 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Stevenage | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 0.89 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 36 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.59 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 230 | 345 |
| Passes against per match | 329 | 278 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.3 | 21.6 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Stevenage | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.44 |
| Other | Stevenage | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Lewis Freestone (Stevenage) | Joseph Patrick Lumley (Sheffield Wednesday) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 17 |
| Save % | 100% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday according to our model?
The model gives Stevenage a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stevenage 41%, draw 29%, Sheffield Wednesday 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.