01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Notts County or draw (1X)72%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
EFL League OneMeadow Lane, Nottingham14°18 km/h
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Notts CountyPossession controlvs
BlackpoolPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Notts County (39%)
Notts County vs Blackpool · EFL League One
1 · Notts County 39%X 30%31% Blackpool · 2
39%
30%
31%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Notts County – Blackpool
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
This matchup is a study in contrasts, despite both teams leaning towards possession control. The historical record between Notts County and Blackpool is thin, offering little predictive power compared to the current dynamics at play. On paper, the hosts appear stronger, with the model favoring them at a 39% win probability and slightly higher expected points. However, Blackpool's recent form, particularly their attacking prowess, adds complexity. Their streak of scoring in 11 consecutive matches is a significant factor, suggesting they can edge through County's defense.
Interestingly, while Blackpool leads in points this season, Notts County has the upper hand in expected points, hinting that the hosts may be undervalued by their actual performance. Their expected goals against (xGA) of 1.3 per match is notably better than Blackpool's leaky 2.1 xGA. This defensive edge could be critical if the game tightens up, with the model's most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 both emphasizing lower goal counts.
The bookmakers have pegged the over 2.5 goals at 43%, consistent with a potentially low-scoring affair, especially given the dual focus on possession. A close match seems probable, with a slight tilt towards the under 2.5 goals and possibly a solitary goal deciding it. The combination of County's defensive strength and Blackpool's scoring streak points to a narrow victory or a low-scoring draw.
From a betting perspective, there might be value in backing Notts County to win at odds of 2.60 with Betfair. This is not a sure thing, but the model's lean towards the hosts, coupled with their superior xPoints and xGA metrics, suggests that the odds underestimate County’s likely edge on their home turf.
Notts CountyForm WDDLL
League ranking xG #18xGA #10xT #21xP/match #8Points #20
Key players
- Oliver Joseph CooperFxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
- Callum RobertsFxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
- Nick TsaroullaRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
BlackpoolForm WLLDL
League ranking xG #4xGA #23xT #16xP/match #11Points #15
Key players
- Cj HamiltonFxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
- Joshua Luke BowlerRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.20
- Thomas Joel BloxhamFxG 0.40 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Notts County – Blackpool
Predicted score matrix
Blackpool →
Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.4%
0–19.0%
0–24.9%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–012.0%
1–113.2%
1–26.7%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.4%
2–18.7%
2–24.5%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.8%
3–14.0%
3–22.1%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–11.8%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-09%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,36–1,04
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
–
Over 2,543%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Notts County or draw (1X)72%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Oliver Joseph Cooper to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Joshua Luke Bowler to score26%
- Scott Alexander Cameron Robertson to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- Blackpool have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Notts County
Blackpool
Notts County (7–9)
Blackpool (13–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Notts County
Blackpool
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Notts County
Blackpool
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Notts County | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 8 |
| xPoints | 10.1 | 9.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Notts County | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.64 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 270 | 293 |
| Passes against per match | 344 | 322 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.2 | 18 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Notts County | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 8.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.77 | 0.54 |
| Other | Notts County | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | James Belshaw (Notts County) | Bailey Peacock Farrell (Blackpool) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 35 |
| Save % | 65% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Milton Keynes Dons – Bromley26 September 2026
- Mansfield Town – Leyton Orient26 September 2026
- Stevenage – Sheffield Wednesday26 September 2026
- Bradford City – Barnsley26 September 2026
- Doncaster Rovers – Oxford United26 September 2026
- Stockport County – Peterborough United26 September 2026 16:00 CEST
- Huddersfield Town – Luton Town26 September 2026 16:00 CEST
- Plymouth Argyle – Burton Albion26 September 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Notts County vs Blackpool according to our model?
The model gives Notts County a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Notts County 39%, draw 30%, Blackpool 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.