Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion Prediction: Home win 56% (26 Sept 2026)

EFL League One26 September 2026 16:00 CESTHome Park, Plymouth13°17 km/h

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Plymouth ArgyleLow block & direct

Burton AlbionLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Plymouth Argyle (56%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.25 (+17 %)

1 · Plymouth Argyle 56%X 26%19% Burton Albion · 2

56%

26%

19%

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Analysis: Plymouth Argyle – Burton Albion

Marcus Johansson · 21 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Plymouth Argyle's recent form is hard to ignore, with three consecutive victories setting a confident tone as they host Burton Albion. The model assigns a 56% chance of a home win, and the numbers favor the hosts in most respects. Plymouth's expected goals (xG) at 1.68 suggest a steady stream of opportunities, outpacing Burton's 0.86, a gap reflective of their respective approaches and execution on the field.

Both teams favor a low defense and direct style, meaning the midfield battle could be bypassed in favor of quick transitions. However, recent head-to-head results offer scant data with only two encounters since 2023, both won by the hosts. Thus, while the historical edge tilts towards Plymouth, it's the current form and statistical forecast that weigh heavier.

A likely scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0 for Plymouth emerges from the probabilities, with a combined 24% chance of these outcomes. Goals may be at a premium; neither side is prolific, and their similar defensive setups could cancel each other out. The over 2.5 goals likelihood sits at 47%, matched by the chance of both teams scoring. This aligns with the expected tight contest, nudging bettors towards a conservative under leaning.

The xPoint comparison shows Plymouth slightly ahead, complementing the model's lean towards a home win. While Burton's slightly better xGA suggests they might be tougher to break down, Plymouth’s attacking edge should still prevail. From a betting perspective, Plymouth Argyle to win at favorable odds aligns with both statistical assessment and form, especially if you find odds around even money or better. The combination of form, model probabilities, and tactical similarities points to a controlled victory for the hosts.

Plymouth Argyle

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #17xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Aribusitamunoipirim Emmanuel PeppleFxG 0.52 · xT -0.03
Ronan CurtisRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.15
Harvey David WhiteCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12

Burton Albion

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #24xGA #11xT #24xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Caylan VickersFxG 0.21 · xT 0.18
Charlie WebsterCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
Matthew Timothy DennisFxG 0.33 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Plymouth Argyle – Burton Albion

Predicted score matrix

Burton Albion →

Plymouth Argyle →

0–08.2%

0–16.4%

0–22.9%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.9%

1–111.7%

1–24.9%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–011.2%

2–19.6%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.2%

3–15.4%

3–22.3%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.8%

4+–13.3%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,68–0,86

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@2.16EV+13%

Over 2,547%

@1.69

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Plymouth Argyle to win56%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Plymouth Argyle to win56%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Aribusitamunoipirim Emmanuel Pepple to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Aribusitamunoipirim Emmanuel Pepple to score35%
George Evans to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.528% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
Under 1.528% probability@4.25BetssonEV+17%reference odds
Under 1.528% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Plymouth Argyle	X	2 · Burton Albion
Betsafe	1.62	3.85	4.90
Betsson	1.62	3.85	4.90
Nordicbet	1.62	3.85	4.90
Pinnacle	1.62	EV+ 4% 4.04	4.96

Odds updated 22 Sept, 17:35

Odds movement

10 %

60 %55 %

1.63 → 1.62

X0 %

26 %21 %

4.04 → 4.04

2+1 %

22 %17 %

4.91 → 4.96

Over 2,5+1 %

59 %54 %

1.68 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Plymouth Argyle 2Draw 0Burton Albion 0

Goals: 7–0 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

Key facts

Plymouth Argyle come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Plymouth Argyle

Burton Albion

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Plymouth Argyle (14–10)

Burton Albion (12–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Plymouth Argyle

Burton Albion

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Plymouth Argyle

Burton Albion

The teams in numbers

Performance	Plymouth Argyle	Burton Albion
Points	13	9
xPoints	11.7	9.6
xG per match	1.5	0.8
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.47	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.24

Playing style	Plymouth Argyle	Burton Albion
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.36
Field tilt	0.45	0.4
xT per match	0.84	0.58
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	32	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.31
Entries into the box per match	9	7
Entries into the box against	11	16
Pass completion %	0.59	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.6	0.63
Passes per match	202	251
Passes against per match	347	346
Switches of play per match	10.3	18.1
Long balls per match	28	27

Set pieces	Plymouth Argyle	Burton Albion
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.11
Corners per match	6	3
Corners against per match	5.3	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.26	0.24
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.61

Other	Plymouth Argyle	Burton Albion
Throw-in control	0.75	0.68

The goalkeepers	Murphy Joseph Mahoney Cooper (Plymouth Argyle)	Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion)
Saves	10	17
Save %	50%	59%
xG prevented	30%	27%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Plymouth Argyle

Fixtures, form & tips

Burton Albion

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion according to our model?

The model gives Plymouth Argyle a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Plymouth Argyle 56%, draw 26%, Burton Albion 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.