01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Cambridge United to win45%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
EFL League OneAbbey Stadium, Cambridge15°0,8 mm14 km/h
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Cambridge UnitedLow block & directvs
WimbledonLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Cambridge United (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Wimbledon @ 4.41 (+24 %)
Cambridge United vs Wimbledon · EFL League One
1 · Cambridge United 45%X 27%28% Wimbledon · 2
45%
27%
28%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Cambridge United – Wimbledon
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The numbers suggest a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals at 55% and a 49% chance for both teams to find the net. Most likely outcomes are tightly contested: a 1-1 draw at 13% and a 1-0 win for Cambridge at 12%. Given the low defensive profiles of both sides, the match could hinge on which team capitalizes on mistakes, but Cambridge’s scoring streak lends them a slight edge.
Cambridge United have scored in 11 consecutive league matches, a streak that highlights their offensive consistency. The model gives the hosts a 45% chance of victory, leaning towards a Cambridge win. Although both teams share a similar expected goals per match at 1.1, Cambridge's current form and slight edges in points and xPoints tip the scales in their favor.
Their consistent goal-scoring and slight edges in points and xPoints—12 to 11 and 9.5 to 8.4, respectively—suggest they are the more reliable side. As Cambridge United aim to extend their scoring run, a 1-0 victory looks the most pragmatic call, aligning with both the model and form.
Cambridge UnitedForm LWDWD
League ranking xG #17xGA #17xT #20xP/match #15Points #5
Key players
- Sulaiman Borbor KaikaiLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.16
- Benjamin Leo KnightRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.07
- Mamadou Ousmane JobeCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.22
WimbledonForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #19xGA #13xT #12xP/match #18Points #7
Key players
- Jayden Connor StockleyFxG 0.31 · xT 0.02
- Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
- Ryan Anthony JohnsonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Cambridge United – Wimbledon
Predicted score matrix
Wimbledon →
Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.9%
0–18.1%
0–24.2%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.2%
1–112.8%
1–26.1%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.2%
2–19.1%
2–24.5%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.5%
3–14.5%
3–22.2%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,47–0,99
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,555%
@1.83EV+1%
Over 2,545%
@1.98
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Cambridge United to win45%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Zak Dominic Bradshaw to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Zak Dominic Bradshaw to score21%
- Isaac Ifeoluwa Foloronso Olushore Ogundere to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Wimbledon28% probability@4.41PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Wimbledon28% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · Wimbledon28% probability@4.25BetssonEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cambridge United | X | 2 · Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.80 | 3.40 | EV+ 19% 4.25 |
| Betsson | 1.80 | 3.40 | EV+ 19% 4.25 |
| Nordicbet | 1.80 | 3.40 | EV+ 19% 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.61 | EV+ 24% 4.41 |
Odds updated 22 Sept, 19:35
Odds movement
1-4 %
54 %49 %
1.87 → 1.79
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.52 → 3.61
2+7 %
24 %19 %
4.12 → 4.41
Over 2,50 %
50 %45 %
1.99 → 1.98
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Cambridge United have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cambridge United
Wimbledon
Cambridge United (12–10)
Wimbledon (5–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cambridge United
Wimbledon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cambridge United
Wimbledon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cambridge United | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 11 |
| xPoints | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Cambridge United | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 233 | 252 |
| Passes against per match | 342 | 303 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.1 | 13.3 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Cambridge United | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| Other | Cambridge United | Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Jake Eastwood (Cambridge United) | Josef John Bursik (Wimbledon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 13 |
| Save % | 66% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Doncaster Rovers – Oxford United26 September 2026
- Stockport County – Peterborough United26 September 2026 16:00 CEST
- Huddersfield Town – Luton Town26 September 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cambridge United vs Wimbledon according to our model?
The model gives Cambridge United a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cambridge United 45%, draw 27%, Wimbledon 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.