01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Stockport County to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
EFL League OneMeadow Lane, Nottingham7°28 km/h
Läs på svenska
Notts CountyPossession controlvs
Stockport CountyPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Stockport County (47%)Best value by the model: 1 · Notts County @ 4.60 (+21 %)
Notts County vs Stockport County · EFL League One
1 · Notts County 26%X 27%47% Stockport County · 2
26%
27%
47%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Notts County vs Stockport County (EFL League One, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Notts County win 26%, draw 27%, Stockport County win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Notts County 1.07, Stockport County 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Notts County or draw 53%, Stockport County or draw 74%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Notts County – Stockport County
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The text holds except for one unsupported claim about betting odds that isn't in the provided facts. Corrected text:
Stockport County's high pressing game could spell trouble for Notts County, who have struggled to find their footing with three consecutive losses. The visitors' aggressive style, combined with their superior scoring potential, as indicated by an average xG of 1.9 per match, clearly signals them as the more potent threat. Notts, in contrast, have been less effective in front of goal, managing only 1.0 xG on average. This disparity in attacking metrics highlights the uphill battle the hosts are likely to face.
The model strongly favors Stockport County with a 47% probability of winning, compared to Notts' 26%. It's not just about the numbers on paper; the visitors' execution on the field has also been more convincing. While Notts County tries to control possession, their approach hasn't been sufficient to secure points lately. Stockport, with 16 points, comfortably outpaces Notts' tally of just 7, reflecting their edge in both form and efficiency.
The expected goals tally further supports Stockport's advantage, with an expected 1.46 goals compared to Notts' 1.07. The most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (11%), suggest the possibility of a close game, but the momentum lies with the visiting side. Stockport's ability to press and disrupt Notts' possession game could lead to a crucial breakthrough, making a 0-1 or 1-2 outcome plausible.
The over 2.5 goals likelihood stands at 46%, suggesting a cautious under might be the wiser lean, though the 51% chance for both teams to find the net can't be ignored. With the combination of current form, attacking prowess, and high press effectiveness, Stockport County stands as the logical choice to come away with the victory.
Notts CountyForm DDLLL
League ranking xG #20xGA #8xT #23xP/match #11Points #22
Key players
- Callum RobertsFxG 0.16 · xT 0.12
- Lucas NessCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
- James Andrew GibbonsCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Stockport CountyForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #1xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Kyle WoottonFxG 0.66 · xT -0.04
- Lewis BateCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
- Oliver NorwoodCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Notts County – Stockport County
Predicted score matrix
Stockport County →
Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–111.3%
0–28.5%
0–34.2%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–08.1%
1–112.8%
1–29.1%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–04.5%
2–16.6%
2–24.9%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.4%
3–21.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.8%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,07–1,46
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.12EV+14%
Over 2,546%
@1.64
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Stockport County to win47%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Kyle Leon Wootton to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Kyle Leon Wootton to score30%
- Scott Alexander Cameron Robertson to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Notts County26% probability@4.60LeoVegasEV+21%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@2.12LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
- Under 1.528% probability@4.00LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Notts County | X | 2 · Stockport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | EV+ 21% 4.60 | EV+ 9% 4.00 | 1.60 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 16:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Stockport County win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 2.00 to 1.60 (−20%).
1+35 %
33 %13 %
3.40 → 4.60
X+18 %
35 %15 %
3.40 → 4.00
2-20 %
62 %42 %
2.00 → 1.60
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Notts County have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Notts County
Stockport County
Notts County (8–11)
Stockport County (20–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Notts County
Stockport County
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Notts County
Stockport County
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Notts County | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 16 |
| xPoints | 11.2 | 13.7 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| Playing style | Notts County | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 0.66 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 274 | 489 |
| Passes against per match | 341 | 327 |
| Switches of play per match | 12.8 | 29.4 |
| Long balls per match | 22 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Notts County | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 7.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| Other | Notts County | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | James Belshaw (Notts County) | Oliver Whatmuff (Stockport County) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 22 |
| Save % | 64% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Reading – Leyton Orient21 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Huddersfield Town – Wigan Athletic24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Luton Town – Leicester City24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bromley – Peterborough United24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Doncaster Rovers – Sheffield Wednesday24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Burton Albion – Leyton Orient24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oxford United – Bradford City24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Wimbledon – Wycombe Wanderers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Notts County vs Stockport County according to our model?
The model gives Stockport County a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Notts County 26%, draw 27%, Stockport County 47%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Notts County vs Stockport County?
The model expects 1.07 goals (xG) for Notts County and 1.46 for Stockport County, 2.53 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Notts County or draw (1X) 53%, Stockport County or draw (X2) 74% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.