Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two5 September 2026 16:00 CESTWhaddon Road, Cheltenham16°15 km/h

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Cheltenham TownLow block & direct

2–2

Grimsby TownPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Grimsby Town (58%)

1 · Cheltenham Town 21%X 21%58% Grimsby Town · 2

21%

58%

Analysis: Cheltenham Town – Grimsby Town

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Grimsby Town's unbeaten run in their last five league matches and their 58% win probability highlight the likely outcome against Cheltenham Town. Despite Cheltenham currently having more points in the standings — 7 to Grimsby's 6 — the underlying metrics paint a different picture. Grimsby's expected goals (xG) per match stand at a solid 1.9, well above Cheltenham's 1.1, indicating a more potent attack.

The head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small sample of four matches, shows Grimsby with three wins and one draw. While head-to-head can sometimes mislead when the sample is limited, Grimsby’s current form combined with their superior xG and xGA metrics make their advantage clear. Cheltenham's defensive vulnerabilities are evident, conceding an average of 1.6 xGA per match, which could be exploited by Grimsby's controlling style of play.

The model's most likely scorelines, such as 1-1 and 0-1, suggest a tight affair, but with Grimsby edging it. The expected goals tally leans towards a modest scoreline, further supported by an over 2.5 goals probability of just 48%. Both teams might find the net, given the 51% probability for both teams to score, yet Grimsby’s defensive metrics could keep Cheltenham at bay.

The betting value is clear: Grimsby to win at 1.92 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers an 11% edge over the market. This is where the sharpest play lies. The numbers suggest a 0-1 or 1-2 result, aligning with Grimsby’s attacking and defensive strengths, a script Cheltenham will struggle to rewrite.

Cheltenham Town

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #19xP/match #15Points #6

Key players

Charlie Liam McCannCAMxG 0.40 · xT 0.17
Ryan BroomRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
Jake EvansRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.16

Grimsby Town

Form DWDDD

League ranking xG #3xGA #12xT #3xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Andy CookFxG 0.45 · xT 0.09
Jayden Deslandes SweeneyLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.20
Harvey RodgersRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.06

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Cheltenham Town 21% · Draw 21% · Grimsby Town 58%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - GrimsbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,93fair 8,19-28 %

Miss

Matchresultat - CheltenhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,01fair 18,91-42 %

Miss

Match prediction: Cheltenham Town – Grimsby Town

Predicted score matrix

Grimsby Town →

Cheltenham Town →

0–07.7%

0–111.3%

0–29.2%

0–34.8%

0–4+2.7%

1–07.3%

1–112.3%

1–29.4%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.8%

2–03.9%

2–16.2%

2–24.9%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.4%

3–01.3%

3–12.1%

3–21.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,03–1,58

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.10EV+1%

Over 2,548%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Grimsby Town to win58%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Grimsby Town to win58%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Daniel Antony Rose to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Daniel Antony Rose to score26%
Ben Edward Stevenson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Grimsby Town58% probability@2.20Bet365EV+27%reference odds
2 · Grimsby Town58% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
2 · Grimsby Town58% probability@1.92BetsafeEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cheltenham Town	X	2 · Grimsby Town
Bet365	3.00	3.30	EV+ 27% 2.20
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsafe	3.70	3.45	EV+ 11% 1.92
Betsson	3.70	3.45	EV+ 11% 1.92
Nordicbet	3.70	3.45	EV+ 11% 1.92
Pinnacle	3.51	3.69	EV+ 17% 2.03

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

10 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.51

X+2 %

28 %23 %

3.61 → 3.69

2+2 %

50 %45 %

1.99 → 2.03

Over 2,5+1 %

57 %52 %

1.74 → 1.75

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Cheltenham Town 0Draw 1Grimsby Town 3

Goals: 4–13 (⌀ 4,2)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Grimsby Town are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cheltenham Town

Grimsby Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cheltenham Town (8–7)

Grimsby Town (5–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cheltenham Town

Grimsby Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cheltenham Town

Grimsby Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cheltenham Town	Grimsby Town
Points	7	6
xPoints	4.7	5.9
xG per match	1.1	1.9
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.14

Playing style	Cheltenham Town	Grimsby Town
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.37	0.57
xT per match	0.71	1.3
xTA per match	1	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	23	36
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.41
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.41
Entries into the box per match	9	17
Entries into the box against	15	10
Pass completion %	0.62	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.58	0.63
Passes per match	251	291
Passes against per match	337	241
Switches of play per match	16.9	21.8
Long balls per match	29	35

Set pieces	Cheltenham Town	Grimsby Town
xG from free kicks	0	0.06
Corners per match	4.5	7
Corners against per match	5.3	4.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.56

Other	Cheltenham Town	Grimsby Town
Throw-in control	0.68	0.67

The goalkeepers	Wylliam Sam Stanway (Cheltenham Town)	Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town)
Saves	8	9
Save %	53%	75%
xG prevented	25%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cheltenham Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Grimsby Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town according to our model?

The model gives Grimsby Town a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cheltenham Town 21%, draw 21%, Grimsby Town 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.