EFL League TwoWhaddon Road, Cheltenham10°0,9 mm20 km/h

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    Cheltenham TownCheltenham TownLow block & direct
    vs
    Salford CitySalford CityPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Salford City (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · Cheltenham Town @ 3.85 (+9 %)

    Cheltenham Town vs Salford City · EFL League Two

    1 · Cheltenham Town 28%X 28%44% Salford City · 2

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    Analysis: Cheltenham Town – Salford City

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Both Cheltenham Town and Salford City come into this clash with unbeaten streaks, but the market leans toward the visitors, giving them a 44% chance to win. Cheltenham's current form is bolstered by their ability to find the net, having scored in nine consecutive league matches. Meanwhile, Salford's style of possession control contrasts with Cheltenham's direct approach, hinting at an intriguing tactical battle.

    Despite Cheltenham's unbeaten run, their xGA of 1.5 per match offers Salford an edge, as the visitors tend to keep tighter defensive lines. While Cheltenham holds a slight statistical advantage in actual points and the head-to-head record since 2023, the sample size of four games is too small to outweigh other factors. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Salford slightly ahead at 1.50 to Cheltenham's 1.22. The most likely outcomes mirror this tight projection, with a 1-1 draw and a 0-1 Salford win as top probabilities.

    Given these dynamics, the edge tilts slightly towards Salford. The over 2.5 goals market is balanced at 51%, indicating a cautious approach, but both teams to score at 55% seems plausible. A 1-1 or narrow 1-2 away victory feels right.

    Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town
    Form WDWDW
    League ranking xG #19xGA #17xT #19xP/match #10Points #3
    Key players
    • Charlie Liam McCannCAMxG 0.31 · xT 0.11
    • Andreas WeimannFxG 0.45 · xT 0.01
    • Robbie David CundyCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.03
    Salford CitySalford City
    Form WWDWW
    League ranking xG #15xGA #13xT #13xP/match #22Points #15
    Key players
    • Adebola OluwoCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
    • Joe James PowellCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
    • Oliver Anthony TurtonRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Cheltenham Town – Salford City

    Predicted score matrix

    Salford City →
    Cheltenham Town →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–19.6%
    0–27.4%
    0–33.7%
    0–4+1.9%
    1
    1–07.7%
    1–112.4%
    1–29.0%
    1–34.5%
    1–4+2.4%
    2
    2–04.9%
    2–17.3%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–02.0%
    3–13.0%
    3–22.2%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,50
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @2.12EV+2%
    Over 2,551%
    @1.70

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Salford City or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Salford City or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Macaulay Langstaff to score32%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Macaulay Langstaff to score32%
    • Ben Edward Stevenson to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Cheltenham Town28% probability@3.85LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
    • Under 0.57% probability@15.00BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • Under 0.57% probability@15.00NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Cheltenham TownX2 · Salford City
    Betsafe3.45
    EV+ 1%
    3.60    		1.92
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 9%
    3.85
    EV+ 4%
    3.70    		1.80
    Nordicbet3.45
    EV+ 1%
    3.60    		1.92

    Odds updated 4 Oct, 04:36

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    26 %21 %

    3.95 → 3.85

    X-1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.75 → 3.70

    2+3 %
    54 %49 %

    1.75 → 1.80

    Over 2,50 %
    59 %54 %

    1.64 → 1.64

    LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Cheltenham Town 2Draw 1Salford City 1
    Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Cheltenham Town are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    • Cheltenham Town have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    • Salford City are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Cheltenham Town
    Salford City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Cheltenham Town (16–12)
    Salford City (12–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Cheltenham Town
    Robbie David Cundy: 171 passningar, xT 0.13CundyPierce Liam Sweeney: 152 passningar, xT 0.14SweeneyJoseph William George Tomlinson: 139 passningar, xT 0.49TomlinsonJonathan Robert Tomkinson: 136 passningar, xT 0.24TomkinsonWylliam Sam Stanway: 134 passningar, xT 0.14StanwayBen Edward Stevenson: 114 passningar, xT 0.07StevensonShaun Daniel McWilliams: 96 passningar, xT 0.05McWilliamsCharlie Liam McCann: 91 passningar, xT 0.37McCannJordan Mark Edward James Shipley: 82 passningar, xT 0.42ShipleyJake Evans: 62 passningar, xT -0.07EvansAndreas Weimann: 46 passningar, xT 0.07Weimann
    Salford City
    Taylor Allen: 254 passningar, xT 0.63AllenJoe James Powell: 215 passningar, xT 0.63PowellAdebola Oluwo: 213 passningar, xT 0.33OluwoWilliam Stewart Aimson: 162 passningar, xT 0.28AimsonWilliam James Norris: 154 passningar, xT 0.23NorrisDaniel George Scarr: 94 passningar, xT 0.11ScarrBrendan Nana Akwasi Sarpong Wiredu: 85 passningar, xT 0.21WireduLuke James Molyneux: 84 passningar, xT 0.98MolyneuxElliot Bonds: 79 passningar, xT 0.04BondsAbraham Ifoghale Odoh: 66 passningar, xT 0.07OdohKelly Nmai: 53 passningar, xT 0.04Nmai
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Cheltenham Town
    Robbie David Cundy: 171 passningar, xT 0.13CundyPierce Liam Sweeney: 152 passningar, xT 0.14SweeneyJoseph William George Tomlinson: 139 passningar, xT 0.49TomlinsonJonathan Robert Tomkinson: 136 passningar, xT 0.24TomkinsonWylliam Sam Stanway: 134 passningar, xT 0.14StanwayBen Edward Stevenson: 114 passningar, xT 0.07StevensonShaun Daniel McWilliams: 96 passningar, xT 0.05McWilliamsCharlie Liam McCann: 91 passningar, xT 0.37McCannJordan Mark Edward James Shipley: 82 passningar, xT 0.42ShipleyJake Evans: 62 passningar, xT -0.07EvansAndreas Weimann: 46 passningar, xT 0.07Weimann
    Salford City
    Taylor Allen: 254 passningar, xT 0.63AllenJoe James Powell: 215 passningar, xT 0.63PowellAdebola Oluwo: 213 passningar, xT 0.33OluwoWilliam Stewart Aimson: 162 passningar, xT 0.28AimsonWilliam James Norris: 154 passningar, xT 0.23NorrisDaniel George Scarr: 94 passningar, xT 0.11ScarrBrendan Nana Akwasi Sarpong Wiredu: 85 passningar, xT 0.21WireduLuke James Molyneux: 84 passningar, xT 0.98MolyneuxElliot Bonds: 79 passningar, xT 0.04BondsAbraham Ifoghale Odoh: 66 passningar, xT 0.07OdohKelly Nmai: 53 passningar, xT 0.04Nmai

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCheltenham TownSalford City
    Points1510
    xPoints11.77.3
    xG per match1.11.1
    xGA per match1.51.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.1
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.38
    Playing styleCheltenham TownSalford City
    Build-up efficiency0.330.37
    Field tilt0.330.6
    xT per match0.630.87
    xTA per match1.20.67
    Won balls, offensive half2224
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.30.41
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.45
    Entries into the box per match715
    Entries into the box against1812
    Pass completion %0.640.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.610.66
    Passes per match257362
    Passes against per match368202
    Switches of play per match14.121.8
    Long balls per match2531
    Set piecesCheltenham TownSalford City
    xG from free kicks00.1
    Corners per match4.46.3
    Corners against per match6.33.9
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.340.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.63
    OtherCheltenham TownSalford City
    Throw-in control0.650.78
    The goalkeepersWylliam Sam Stanway (Cheltenham Town)William James Norris (Salford City)
    Saves2522
    Save %68%69%
    xG prevented37%39%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Cheltenham Town
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Salford City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Cheltenham Town vs Salford City according to our model?

    The model gives Salford City a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cheltenham Town 28%, draw 28%, Salford City 44%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.