01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Port Vale or draw (1X)62%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
EFL League TwoVale Park, Stoke-on-Trent10°4,2 mm22 km/h
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Port ValePossession controlvs
Grimsby TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Port Vale (34%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+13 %)
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town · EFL League Two
1 · Port Vale 34%X 33%33% Grimsby Town · 2
34%
33%
33%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Port Vale – Grimsby Town
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Grimsby Town have been outperforming expectations with their 13 points compared to Vale's meager 5. The xG stats reinforce this disparity: Grimsby’s 1.8 xG per match far surpasses Vale's 0.98. Despite this, the model slightly favors the hosts, suggesting a narrow edge for Port Vale. However, with Grimsby boasting a superior xPoints tally of 11.7 to Vale’s 8.0, it’s hard to ignore the visitors’ more consistent form.
The teams' playing styles cancel each other out, both relying on possession control, which could lead to a tightly contested midfield battle. The model’s probability split — 34% for Vale, 33% for a draw, and 33% for Grimsby — reflects this balance, yet the expected goals tilt slightly toward the visitors. With only two head-to-head matches since 2023, the historical data remains a minor factor, offering scant insight beyond Grimsby’s slight edge.
In terms of a betting angle, Grimsby Town presents a value opportunity given their form and underlying stats. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw (14%) aligns with the over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 41%, suggesting a tighter, lower-scoring affair is slightly more likely than not. For those seeking value, back Grimsby to leverage their form over the hosts.
Port ValeForm DLLWL
League ranking xG #22xGA #6xT #10xP/match #19Points #23
Key players
- Kyle Michael DempseyFxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
- Oliver David James LynchFxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
- Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Grimsby TownForm DDWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #2xP/match #9Points #6
Key players
- Andy CookFxG 0.39 · xT 0.07
- Iwan Tomas MorganFxG 0.73 · xT 0.23
- Charles VernamLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.21
Match prediction: Port Vale – Grimsby Town
Predicted score matrix
Grimsby Town →
Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.3%
0–111.6%
0–27.2%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–010.6%
1–113.6%
1–28.0%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–06.1%
2–17.3%
2–24.4%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–02.2%
3–12.7%
3–21.6%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.1-011%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,11–1,20
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.85EV+10%
Over 2,541%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Port Vale or draw (1X)62%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Kyle Michael Dempsey to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Andrew Ellis Cook to score28%
- Geza David David Turi to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.510% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- Under 0.510% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- Under 1.532% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Port Vale | X | 2 · Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.42 | EV+ 6% 3.20 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | EV+ 9% 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | 2.42 | EV+ 6% 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 22:36
Odds movement
10 %
41 %36 %
2.40 → 2.40
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.25 → 3.30
20 %
36 %31 %
2.70 → 2.70
Over 2,5+1 %
53 %48 %
1.83 → 1.85
LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesPort Vale 0Draw 1Grimsby Town 1
Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Port Vale
Grimsby Town
Port Vale (3–9)
Grimsby Town (12–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Port Vale
Grimsby Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Port Vale
Grimsby Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Port Vale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 13 |
| xPoints | 8 | 11.7 |
| xG per match | 0.98 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.42 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Port Vale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| Passes per match | 248 | 286 |
| Passes against per match | 243 | 215 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.4 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Port Vale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 6.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| Other | Port Vale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Jackson William Smith (Port Vale) | Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 13 |
| Save % | 59% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Port Vale vs Grimsby Town according to our model?
The model gives Port Vale a 34% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Port Vale 34%, draw 33%, Grimsby Town 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.