01 · 2 legs
Safe
- York City to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
EFL League TwoLNER Community Stadium, York10°20 km/h
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York CityPossession controlvs
Northampton TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · York City (67%)
York City vs Northampton Town · EFL League Two
1 · York City 67%X 19%14% Northampton Town · 2
67%
19%
14%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: York City – Northampton Town
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
A striking 67% win probability for York City sets the tone for this clash against Northampton Town. The odds starkly favour the hosts, backed by a solid xG of 1.9 per match compared to the visitors' meager 0.75. York's ability to control possession aligns with their superior xPoints tally of 10.9 to Northampton's 8.2, highlighting a consistent edge in creating and converting chances.
Despite both teams adopting a possession-based approach, Northampton struggles to translate this into scoring opportunities, evidenced by their low goals-per-game expectation. Their mere 14% chance of winning speaks volumes about the uphill battle they face. The 2-0 and 1-0 scorelines are deemed most probable, driven by York's potent attack, even though Northampton actually holds a slight edge in xGA (1.1 vs York's 1.2).
With a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, the potential for goals is high, yet not guaranteed. Though both sides might dominate possession, it's York's clinical edge that likely seals the win. The final whistle may well see the hosts comfortably on top, capitalizing on Northampton's vulnerabilities.
York CityForm LDWLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #1xP/match #15Points #4
Key players
- Alexander Lewis NewbyFxG 0.47 · xT 0.12
- Oliver Ian BanksCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.20
- Harry BoyesLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
Northampton TownForm DDWLL
League ranking xG #24xGA #5xT #24xP/match #18Points #22
Key players
- Lee EvansCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
- Joseph Oliver WormleightonRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
- Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: York City – Northampton Town
Predicted score matrix
Northampton Town →
York City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–13.7%
0–21.6%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–010.4%
1–18.9%
1–23.6%
1–31.0%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–011.8%
2–19.7%
2–23.9%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–08.8%
3–17.2%
3–22.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–08.2%
4+–16.7%
4+–22.7%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.3-09%
Expected goals
2,22–0,82
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@1.98
Over 2,559%
@1.78EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- York City to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score31%
- Elliott Jordan Moore to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · York City67% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · York City67% probability@1.70NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · York City67% probability@1.68LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · York City | X | 2 · Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 14% 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 12% 1.68 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 14% 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 04:36
Odds movement
10 %
57 %52 %
1.68 → 1.68
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.70 → 3.70
2-2 %
23 %18 %
4.50 → 4.40
Over 2,5+1 %
56 %51 %
1.73 → 1.75
LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
York City
Northampton Town
York City (16–10)
Northampton Town (3–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
York City
Northampton Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
York City
Northampton Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | York City | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 6 |
| xPoints | 10.9 | 8.2 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 0.75 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | York City | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.56 |
| xTA per match | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 463 | 264 |
| Passes against per match | 238 | 298 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.4 | 14.4 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 22 |
| Set pieces | York City | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.7 |
| Other | York City | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Alfie Shane McNally (York City) | Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 17 |
| Save % | 66% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins York City vs Northampton Town according to our model?
The model gives York City a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: York City 67%, draw 19%, Northampton Town 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.