Rotherham United vs Gillingham Prediction: Home win 50% (10 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two10 October 2026 16:00 CESTNew York Stadium, Rotherham11°1,1 mm23 km/h

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Rotherham UnitedPossession control

GillinghamCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Rotherham United (50%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.55 (+1 %)

1 · Rotherham United 50%X 29%22% Gillingham · 2

50%

29%

22%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Rotherham United – Gillingham

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A small sample size of head-to-head encounters offers limited insight, leaving us to focus on current form and expected goals as Rotherham United hosts Gillingham. The home side has been backed by the model with a 50% probability of winning, emphasizing their defensive solidity and possession control, which contrasts with Gillingham's counter-attacking and crossing style.

Despite Gillingham holding a slight points advantage in the league table, Rotherham's expected points tell a different story, favoring them at 12.9 compared to Gillingham’s 11.0. The hosts seem more efficient in creating and denying chances, with an xG per match of 1.3 against Gillingham’s 1.1, and a superior defensive metric of 1.0 xGA versus Gillingham’s 1.4. These stats underline Rotherham's potential to control the game and limit Gillingham's opportunities, particularly given the damp conditions expected.

The most likely scorelines reinforce a low-scoring narrative, with both 1-0 and 1-1 sitting at 12% probability each. The rain might further dampen attacking flair, suppressing the likelihood of a high-scoring affair, which aligns with the model's 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and suggests a lean towards under. Both teams to score nearly breaks even at 49%, but defensive discipline from Rotherham could edge Gillingham out.

For bettors seeking value, Bet365 offers Rotherham to win at odds of 2.00, which aligns remarkably with the model’s probability, suggesting a potential edge. While not a guarantee, a focused play on Rotherham’s win, coupled with an under 2.5 goals bet, could offer a well-balanced approach to this League Two clash — perhaps not thrilling, but precisely the kind of careful wager that pays the bills.

Rotherham United

Form DLDWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #2xT #18xP/match #4Points #16

Key players

Paul Philip MullinFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
Thomas William BradshawFxG 0.59 · xT 0.00
Fábio André Tavares DesidérioFxG 0.24 · xT -0.01

Gillingham

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #15xT #17xP/match #14Points #7

Key players

William Neil GoodwinFxG 0.39 · xT 0.10
Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.00
James Robert BrophyLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Rotherham United – Gillingham

Predicted score matrix

Gillingham →

Rotherham United →

0–08.3%

0–17.1%

0–23.5%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.3%

1–112.2%

1–25.6%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.1%

2–19.5%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.3%

3–15.0%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.0%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-012%
2.1-112%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,59–0,94

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@1.80

Over 2,547%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rotherham United to win50%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rotherham United to win50%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Brandon Ashley Cover to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Brandon Ashley Cover to score24%
Armani George Little to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw29% probability@3.55LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rotherham United	X	2 · Gillingham
Betsafe	1.85	3.40	4.10
LeoVegas	1.80	EV+ 1% 3.55	4.00
Nordicbet	1.85	3.40	4.10

Odds updated 4 Oct, 00:36

Odds movement

10 %

54 %49 %

1.80 → 1.80

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.55

2-2 %

25 %20 %

4.10 → 4.00

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.91 → 1.91

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rotherham United

Gillingham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rotherham United (11–11)

Gillingham (11–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rotherham United

Gillingham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rotherham United

Gillingham

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rotherham United	Gillingham
Points	10	12
xPoints	12.9	11
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.2

Playing style	Rotherham United	Gillingham
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.33
Field tilt	0.52	0.4
xT per match	0.69	0.79
xTA per match	0.74	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	25	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.39	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.31
Entries into the box per match	10	8
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.65	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.58
Passes per match	279	236
Passes against per match	277	332
Switches of play per match	20.9	15.8
Long balls per match	28	29

Set pieces	Rotherham United	Gillingham
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.07
Corners per match	4	3.6
Corners against per match	4.5	5.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.23	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.61

Other	Rotherham United	Gillingham
Throw-in control	0.75	0.71

The goalkeepers	Ted Cann (Rotherham United)	Oliver Lennon George Wright (Gillingham)
Saves	12	19
Save %	63%	86%
xG prevented	39%	90%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rotherham United

Fixtures, form & tips

Gillingham

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rotherham United vs Gillingham according to our model?

The model gives Rotherham United a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rotherham United 50%, draw 29%, Gillingham 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.