01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Chesterfield to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
EFL League TwoSMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield14°7,6 mm18 km/h
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ChesterfieldPossession controlvs
Tranmere RoversPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Chesterfield (62%)
Chesterfield vs Tranmere Rovers · EFL League Two
1 · Chesterfield 62%X 22%16% Tranmere Rovers · 2
62%
22%
16%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Chesterfield – Tranmere Rovers
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Chesterfield's expected goals figure of 1.97 looms large over this League Two matchup against Tranmere Rovers. It underscores the hosts' offensive potential, hinting that they might find the net with ease. Despite being narrowly behind Tranmere in actual points, Chesterfield leads in expected points, 9.3 to 7.1, reflecting underlying performances that suggest they may have been a touch unlucky so far. This disparity between expected and actual points is a common theme: while Tranmere may have grabbed a slight edge in tangible results, the xG data paints a different picture.
Chesterfield's strength lies in their ability to control possession, a trait they share with Tranmere. This stylistic clash might lead to a tactical chess match, but the home side's superior xG of 1.7 per match compared to Tranmere's 1.1 should tilt the scales. Their defensive numbers also favor them, with an xGA of 1.3 per match versus Tranmere's 1.7, suggesting Chesterfield should be fairly solid at the back. Still, with a 52% likelihood of both teams scoring, Tranmere's attack — misfiring as it may be — could find a glimmer of hope.
Head-to-head results since 2023 reveal a deadlock: one win apiece and two draws. The small sample size, just four matches, means these results carry less weight than the current form and expected goals data. Chesterfield's ability to generate nearly double the expected goals of Tranmere suggests they are more likely to break the deadlock of recent encounters.
The model forecasts a 2-0 or 1-0 victory for Chesterfield, each with an 11% likelihood. The probabilities also lean slightly towards over 2.5 goals, standing at 55%. Given these insights, the hosts appear poised to take control, and a Chesterfield win at 62% probability seems plausible.
ChesterfieldForm LDDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #13xP/match #5Points #13
Key players
- Louie MarshLWxG 0.48 · xT -0.01
- Dilan MarkandayRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.07
- Lee BonisFxG 0.65 · xT 0.02
Tranmere RoversForm DDWLD
League ranking xG #15xGA #22xT #20xP/match #21Points #10
Key players
- Zane OkoroRWxG 0.26 · xT -0.01
- Dylan JonesFxG 0.54 · xT 0.03
- William Robert VaulksCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Chesterfield – Tranmere Rovers
Predicted score matrix
Tranmere Rovers →
Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–14.8%
0–22.3%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.8%
1–110.4%
1–24.6%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.9%
2–19.9%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.1%
3–16.5%
3–23.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.5%
4+–15.0%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,97–0,91
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
–
Over 2,555%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Chesterfield to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score38%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score38%
- Samuel Joseph Finley to be booked24%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesChesterfield 1Draw 2Tranmere Rovers 1
Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Chesterfield
Tranmere Rovers
Chesterfield (10–8)
Tranmere Rovers (9–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Tranmere Rovers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Tranmere Rovers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 9 |
| xPoints | 9.3 | 7.1 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.4 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 378 | 240 |
| Passes against per match | 261 | 246 |
| Switches of play per match | 39.9 | 14.8 |
| Long balls per match | 47 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| Other | Chesterfield | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield) | Luke Paul McGee (Tranmere Rovers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 11 |
| Save % | 70% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 72% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Grimsby Town – Shrewsbury Town3 October 2026
- Northampton Town – Oldham Athletic3 October 2026
- Exeter City – Rotherham United3 October 2026
- Crewe Alexandra – Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
- Gillingham – Newport County3 October 2026
- Walsall – Crawley Town3 October 2026
- Colchester United – Port Vale3 October 2026
- Salford City – Fleetwood Town3 October 2026
- Barnet – York City3 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Chesterfield vs Tranmere Rovers according to our model?
The model gives Chesterfield a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chesterfield 62%, draw 22%, Tranmere Rovers 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.