Walsall vs Crawley Town Prediction: Home win 59% (3 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two3 October 2026Bescot Stadium, Walsall14°6,4 mm18 km/h

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WalsallPossession control

Crawley TownPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Walsall (59%)

1 · Walsall 59%X 21%19% Crawley Town · 2

59%

21%

19%

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Analysis: Walsall – Crawley Town

Marcus Johansson · 25 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between these teams since 2023 might suggest parity, with both encounters ending in draws. However, that small sample doesn't overshadow the broader picture painted by current form and underlying metrics. Walsall's unbeaten run of seven matches contrasts sharply with Crawley Town's three consecutive losses. The hosts not only have momentum but also a statistical edge, evidenced by their superior expected goals (xG) and expected points (xP) figures.

Walsall's style of play revolves around possession control, a strategy mirrored by their opponents. The clash of similar playing philosophies usually implies a battle for midfield dominance. Yet, Walsall's more effective execution of this strategy is reflected in their higher xG per match (1.9 vs. Crawley's 1.4) and lower expected goals against (xGA) figures. This suggests that while both teams aim to hold the ball, Walsall translates possession into more and better chances.

The model probabilities heavily favor the hosts with a 59% win chance. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 further underscore the challenge Crawley faces, with both teams likely finding the net but Walsall having the upper hand. The expected goals prediction of 2.04 to 1.13 in Walsall's favor supports a lean towards over 2.5 goals in this matchup, with the model giving a 61% chance for such an outcome.

The standout betting angle comes courtesy of Bet365, offering odds of 1.80 for over 2.5 goals. This looks like a valuable pick, given the attacking potential shown by Walsall and the vulnerabilities in Crawley's defense. With both teams employing possession-based strategies, the chances of a high-scoring affair seem significant, making this market an appealing option for punters.

Walsall

Form WDDDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #5xP/match #6Points #1

Key players

Aaron PressleyFxG 0.63 · xT 0.00
Reece SmithLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.22
Courtney Alphonso ClarkeRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.22

Crawley Town

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #21xT #11xP/match #19Points #24

Key players

Jude ArthursCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.03
Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
Charlie Mel BarkerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Walsall – Crawley Town

Predicted score matrix

Crawley Town →

Walsall →

0–04.5%

0–14.5%

0–22.7%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.3%

1–110.0%

1–25.5%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.7%

2–19.9%

2–25.6%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.9%

3–16.7%

3–23.8%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–04.9%

4+–15.5%

4+–23.1%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,04–1,13

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

–

Over 2,561%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Walsall to win59%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Walsall to win59%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Aaron Alex Pressley to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Aaron Alex Pressley to score32%
Jude Arthurs to be booked26%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Walsall 0Draw 2Crawley Town 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Walsall are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Crawley Town have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Walsall

Crawley Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Walsall (10–4)

Crawley Town (6–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Walsall

Crawley Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Walsall

Crawley Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Walsall	Crawley Town
Points	13	4
xPoints	10.8	7.2
xG per match	1.9	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.38

Playing style	Walsall	Crawley Town
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.6	0.57
xT per match	1	0.92
xTA per match	0.85	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.4	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.34
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.73	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.68
Passes per match	361	349
Passes against per match	232	226
Switches of play per match	31.8	27.1
Long balls per match	33	30

Set pieces	Walsall	Crawley Town
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	6.5	4.1
Corners against per match	5.3	4.6
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.54

Other	Walsall	Crawley Town
Throw-in control	0.75	0.78

The goalkeepers	Jed MacAulay Ward (Walsall)	Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town)
Saves	19	16
Save %	83%	64%
xG prevented	58%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Walsall

Fixtures, form & tips

Crawley Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Walsall vs Crawley Town according to our model?

The model gives Walsall a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Walsall 59%, draw 21%, Crawley Town 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.