Northampton Town vs Oldham Athletic Prediction: Away win 41% (3 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two3 October 2026Sixfields, Northampton15°3,6 mm17 km/h

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Northampton TownPossession control

Oldham AthleticLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Oldham Athletic (41%)

1 · Northampton Town 28%X 31%41% Oldham Athletic · 2

28%

31%

41%

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Analysis: Northampton Town – Oldham Athletic

Oscar Nilsson · 25 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The market often overlooks a team on a losing run, yet Oldham's statistical profile suggests they deserve more than their recent results. In contrast, Northampton's approach focuses on control rather than penetration, which might not exploit Oldham's defensive vulnerabilities as effectively as needed. The expected goals model reflects this, with Oldham's 1.16 overshadowing the hosts' 1.05.

While the likelihood of a 1-1 draw leads the scoreline probabilities at 14%, it's the 0-1 possibility at 12% that catches the eye, given Oldham's direct style which could exploit Northampton's backline. The chance of over 2.5 goals sits at a modest 38%, indicating a tight affair where defenses might edge the attacking efforts.

Even with their recent form, Oldham Athletic holds value in the betting markets. The model's 41% win probability for Oldham suggests a mispriced favorite, leaving room to capitalize on a likely low-scoring visitor triumph.

Northampton Town

Form DDWLL

League ranking xG #24xGA #3xT #24xP/match #20Points #18

Key players

Lee EvansCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Joseph Oliver WormleightonRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Oldham Athletic

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #15xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Karl Mike Fondop-TalumFxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
Elliott Lloyd NevittFxG 0.10 · xT 0.01
Calum KavanaghCAMxG 0.77 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Northampton Town – Oldham Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Oldham Athletic →

Northampton Town →

0–011.4%

0–112.3%

0–27.3%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.1%

1–011.2%

1–113.8%

1–27.7%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.1%

2–06.1%

2–17.0%

2–24.1%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.6%

3–02.1%

3–12.5%

3–21.4%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.0-011%
4.1-011%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,05–1,16

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+7%

Under 2,562%

–

Over 2,538%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oldham Athletic or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals62%
Calum Graham Kavanagh to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Owen Dale to score27%
Oliver Lewis Norburn to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Key facts

Oldham Athletic have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Northampton Town

Oldham Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Northampton Town (3–6)

Oldham Athletic (8–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Oldham Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Northampton Town

Oldham Athletic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Northampton Town	Oldham Athletic
Points	6	7
xPoints	7.1	10.5
xG per match	0.68	1.4
xGA per match	1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.39
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.1

Playing style	Northampton Town	Oldham Athletic
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.37
Field tilt	0.4	0.5
xT per match	0.5	0.84
xTA per match	0.68	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	24	31
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.3
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.68	0.65
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.63
Passes per match	278	254
Passes against per match	309	327
Switches of play per match	15	18.1
Long balls per match	21	38

Set pieces	Northampton Town	Oldham Athletic
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.03
Corners per match	5.2	5.5
Corners against per match	2.9	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.58

Other	Northampton Town	Oldham Athletic
Throw-in control	0.74	0.75

The goalkeepers	Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town)	Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic)
Saves	17	14
Save %	74%	64%
xG prevented	41%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Northampton Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Oldham Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Northampton Town vs Oldham Athletic according to our model?

The model gives Oldham Athletic a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Northampton Town 28%, draw 31%, Oldham Athletic 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.