01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Bristol Rovers or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
EFL League TwoGresty Road, Crewe14°11,8 mm23 km/h
Läs på svenska
Crewe AlexandraPossession controlvs
Bristol RoversLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Bristol Rovers (40%)Soft draw
Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers · EFL League Two
1 · Crewe Alexandra 35%X 26%40% Bristol Rovers · 2
35%
26%
40%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Crewe Alexandra – Bristol Rovers
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The text states "1-1 and 0-1 both at 9% likelihood," but according to the facts, 1-1 is 13% while 0-1 and 1-2 are both 9%.
Corrected text:
The numbers hint at a slight edge for Bristol Rovers as they prepare to visit Crewe Alexandra. Despite the home side's unbeaten run in their last eight league matches, both the model probabilities and advanced metrics favor the visitors. With Bristol Rovers holding a narrow statistical advantage in terms of xPoints, xG, and xGA, the odds are subtly stacked in their favor.
Crewe's possession-based style might provide a semblance of control, but it's Bristol's low defense and direct approach that could prove pivotal. The visitors' higher xG of 2.0 per match suggests they create more quality chances, while their xGA of 0.92 indicates a tighter defensive setup. This could be crucial in a match where both teams are predicted to score, with a 55% likelihood.
Head-to-head data remains limited with only two encounters since 2023, making it less significant than current form and expected goals. Yet, it leans towards Bristol Rovers, who have managed a win and a draw in the previous meetings. The most likely scorelines suggest a narrow victory or a draw, with 1-1 the top pick at 13%, and 0-1 and 1-2 both at 9% likelihood.
For those looking for value, bet365 offers Bristol Rovers at odds of 2.40. Given their statistical edges and the model's lean towards them, this presents a tempting opportunity. Over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 51%, reflecting both teams' scoring capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities.
In this clash, the smart play aligns with a cautious backing of the visitors. While Crewe might stretch their unbeaten streak, Bristol's sharper attack and more robust defense suggest they could well snatch the spoils.
Crewe AlexandraForm DDDDD
League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #9xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Josh MarchFxG 0.43 · xT 0.04
- Joe Peter WhiteCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
- Luke William OffordCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Bristol RoversForm WWWLL
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #4xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Fabrizio CavegnFxG 0.39 · xT 0.12
- Tommy LeighCAMxG 0.42 · xT 0.24
- Bobby-Emmanuel KamwaLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Crewe Alexandra – Bristol Rovers
Predicted score matrix
Bristol Rovers →
Crewe Alexandra →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–19.2%
0–26.8%
0–33.3%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–08.1%
1–112.5%
1–28.7%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.4%
2–17.8%
2–25.6%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.3%
3–22.4%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,28–1,44
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
–
Over 2,551%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Bristol Rovers or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Tommy Leigh to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Tommy Leigh to score22%
- Richard Smallwood to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCrewe Alexandra 0Draw 1Bristol Rovers 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Crewe Alexandra are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Crewe Alexandra
Bristol Rovers
Crewe Alexandra (7–5)
Bristol Rovers (12–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Crewe Alexandra
Bristol Rovers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Crewe Alexandra
Bristol Rovers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 12 |
| xPoints | 9.2 | 11.5 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.92 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.96 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.6 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 323 | 207 |
| Passes against per match | 347 | 289 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.6 | 18.1 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 42 |
| Set pieces | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| Other | Crewe Alexandra | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Tom Booth (Crewe Alexandra) | Brad Young (Bristol Rovers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 9 |
| Save % | 85% | 45% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Grimsby Town – Shrewsbury Town3 October 2026
- Northampton Town – Oldham Athletic3 October 2026
- Exeter City – Rotherham United3 October 2026
- Chesterfield – Tranmere Rovers3 October 2026
- Gillingham – Newport County3 October 2026
- Walsall – Crawley Town3 October 2026
- Colchester United – Port Vale3 October 2026
- Salford City – Fleetwood Town3 October 2026
- Barnet – York City3 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers according to our model?
The model gives Bristol Rovers a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crewe Alexandra 35%, draw 26%, Bristol Rovers 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.