01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Exeter City or draw (1X)70%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
EFL League TwoSt James Park, Exeter15°8,4 mm22 km/h
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Exeter CityPossession controlvs
Rotherham UnitedPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Exeter City (43%)
Exeter City vs Rotherham United · EFL League Two
1 · Exeter City 43%X 29%28% Rotherham United · 2
43%
29%
28%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Exeter City – Rotherham United
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
Rotherham United’s slight edge in xG per match at 1.4 compared to Exeter City's 1.3 suggests a nuanced battle, underscoring the model's slight lean toward the hosts. Yet, despite Rotherham's technical superiority in expected points and goals allowed, the visitors' overall model probability stands at just 28%. The numbers imply a closely contested match, with Exeter's home advantage perhaps tipping the scale.
Exeter City’s probability of securing a win is calculated at 43%, supported by their expected goals of 1.22. This is in stark contrast to Rotherham's 1.0 xG. The most likely outcomes are tightly grouped: a 1-1 draw at 14% is the top predicted scoreline, highlighting a low-scoring expectation. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 38%, hinting at a lean towards the under.
In betting terms, Exeter City is where potential value may lie, given their higher probability of victory, while the expected tight affair suggests caution on goal-heavy markets. With both teams playing a possession-control style, the small head-to-head sample further directs focus on current form and xG figures.
Exeter CityForm LDDLD
League ranking xG #13xGA #9xT #21xP/match #4Points #21
Key players
- Jayden WarehamFxG 0.90 · xT 0.00
- Reece ColeCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.02
- Edward George Martin JamesCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.04
Rotherham UnitedForm WDLDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #18xP/match #3Points #17
Key players
- Paul Philip MullinFxG 0.46 · xT 0.04
- Denzel HallRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
- Ewan OtooLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Exeter City – Rotherham United
Predicted score matrix
Rotherham United →
Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.2%
0–110.5%
0–25.4%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–012.8%
1–113.6%
1–26.6%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.1%
2–18.1%
2–24.1%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–03.3%
3–13.3%
3–21.6%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,22–1,00
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,562%
–
Over 2,538%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Exeter City or draw (1X)70%
- Under 2.5 goals62%
- Joshua Luke Gordon to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals38%
- Joshua Luke Gordon to score19%
- Ossama Wassim Ashley to be booked21%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Exeter City
Rotherham United
Exeter City (4–5)
Rotherham United (10–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Rotherham United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Rotherham United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Exeter City | Rotherham United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 6 |
| xPoints | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Exeter City | Rotherham United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 0.76 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 216 | 282 |
| Passes against per match | 329 | 304 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.3 | 20.8 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Exeter City | Rotherham United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| Other | Exeter City | Rotherham United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Jack Thomas Bycroft (Exeter City) | Ted Cann (Rotherham United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 12 |
| Save % | 80% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Grimsby Town – Shrewsbury Town3 October 2026
- Northampton Town – Oldham Athletic3 October 2026
- Chesterfield – Tranmere Rovers3 October 2026
- Crewe Alexandra – Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
- Gillingham – Newport County3 October 2026
- Walsall – Crawley Town3 October 2026
- Colchester United – Port Vale3 October 2026
- Salford City – Fleetwood Town3 October 2026
- Barnet – York City3 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Exeter City vs Rotherham United according to our model?
The model gives Exeter City a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Exeter City 43%, draw 29%, Rotherham United 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.