01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Salford City to win52%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
EFL League TwoPeninsula Stadium, Salford15°14,2 mm19 km/h
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Salford CityPossession controlvs
Fleetwood TownLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Salford City (52%)
Salford City vs Fleetwood Town · EFL League Two
1 · Salford City 52%X 27%21% Fleetwood Town · 2
52%
27%
21%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Salford City – Fleetwood Town
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The FACTS do not include any bookmaker odds (e.g., Pinnacle) or references to "implied odds" for a Salford City win. This is an unsupported claim added by the text.
TEXT (corrected):
With a 52% win probability, Salford City enters their clash against Fleetwood with the model’s backing. Despite this, their head-to-head record since 2023 reveals a slight obstacle: Salford has yet to secure a victory in four encounters, with three draws and one defeat. The sample size is small, however, and less significant than current form and underlying statistics.
Salford’s possession-focused approach contrasts with Fleetwood’s defensive and direct style, likely leading to a cautious affair. Expected goals metrics offer Salford a narrow advantage, projecting 1.43 to Fleetwood's 0.92. Yet, Fleetwood's actual point tally (10) and xPoints (7.2) better Salford's 7 and 5.8, which adds a layer of intrigue. This hint of overperformance by the visitors might narrow the gap seen in model probabilities.
The numbers point to a low-scoring match, with a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and a modest 46% for both teams scoring. The most probable outcomes are 1-0 or 1-1, each at 13%, suggesting a close contest. Given these figures, the under 2.5 goals market presents a reasonable angle.
Salford CityForm LWWDW
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #17xP/match #23Points #15
Key players
- Adebola OluwoCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Joe James PowellCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
- Ryan GraydonLWxG 0.19 · xT -0.03
Fleetwood TownForm DDWDL
League ranking xG #19xGA #17xT #6xP/match #18Points #7
Key players
- Chedwyn Michael EvansFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
- Andrew Francis CannonRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
- Harrison NealCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Salford City – Fleetwood Town
Predicted score matrix
Fleetwood Town →
Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.9%
0–18.4%
0–24.0%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–013.3%
1–112.9%
1–25.8%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.8%
2–19.0%
2–24.1%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.7%
3–14.3%
3–22.0%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,43–0,92
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
–
Over 2,542%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Salford City to win52%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Macaulay Langstaff to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Macaulay Langstaff to score26%
- Finley Potter to be booked21%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSalford City 0Draw 3Fleetwood Town 1
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Salford City
Fleetwood Town
Salford City (8–9)
Fleetwood Town (8–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Salford City
Fleetwood Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Salford City
Fleetwood Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Salford City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 10 |
| xPoints | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Salford City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 0.69 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 357 | 281 |
| Passes against per match | 196 | 281 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.4 | 18.6 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Salford City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| Other | Salford City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | William James Norris (Salford City) | Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 15 |
| Save % | 69% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Exeter City – Rotherham United3 October 2026
- Chesterfield – Tranmere Rovers3 October 2026
- Crewe Alexandra – Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
- Gillingham – Newport County3 October 2026
- Walsall – Crawley Town3 October 2026
- Colchester United – Port Vale3 October 2026
- Barnet – York City3 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Salford City vs Fleetwood Town according to our model?
The model gives Salford City a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Salford City 52%, draw 27%, Fleetwood Town 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.