Crawley Town vs Chesterfield Prediction: Away win 56% (10 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two10 October 2026 16:00 CESTBroadfield Stadium, Crawley11°20 km/h

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Crawley TownPossession control

ChesterfieldPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Chesterfield (56%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.53 (+1 %)

1 · Crawley Town 21%X 24%56% Chesterfield · 2

21%

24%

56%

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Analysis: Crawley Town – Chesterfield

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Chesterfield offers minimal insight with just two matches ending in draws. This small sample pales in comparison to current form and expected goals, where Chesterfield holds the clear advantage. The visitors are riding high with 11 points compared to Crawley's mere four, further emphasized by their superior xPoints tally of 13.2 against Crawley's 7.3.

Crawley Town's recent form is decidedly bleak, having suffered three consecutive defeats. Their defensive vulnerabilities are stark, conceding an average of 2.0 expected goals against per match. Chesterfield, on the other hand, exhibits tighter defensive control, allowing just 1.1 xGA per game. This defensive solidity, combined with an xG of 1.8 per match, positions the visitors as the more robust side.

Despite both teams leaning towards possession-based play, Chesterfield's approach has been more effective. Crawley's struggles are compounded by their inability to convert possession into tangible results, which makes Chesterfield's 56% probability of victory appear reasonable. The likelihood of a 1-2 or 0-1 scoreline reflects this disparity, with the model favoring a Chesterfield win.

The betting angle here is clear. With over 2.5 goals and both teams to score each pegged at 57%, there's value to be found. Bet365 offers Chesterfield to win at 2.00, a standout given their form. While Crawley’s attack has been underwhelming, Chesterfield’s defensive capabilities could restrict them, making a Chesterfield triumph the sensible play.

Crawley Town

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #24xT #11xP/match #23Points #24

Key players

Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Jude ArthursCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.03
Dylan MorganFxG 0.34 · xT 0.03

Chesterfield

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #6xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Lee BonisFxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
Dilan MarkandayRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.11
Remeao Andrew HuttonRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.33

Match prediction: Crawley Town – Chesterfield

Predicted score matrix

Chesterfield →

Crawley Town →

0–05.6%

0–19.2%

0–28.6%

0–35.2%

0–4+3.6%

1–05.6%

1–111.1%

1–29.8%

1–35.9%

1–4+4.0%

2–03.4%

2–16.1%

2–25.6%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.3%

3–12.3%

3–22.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,13–1,81

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.30

Over 2,557%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Chesterfield to win56%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Chesterfield to win56%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score29%
Jude Arthurs to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.566% probability@1.53LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Crawley Town	X	2 · Chesterfield
LeoVegas	4.40	4.00	1.64

Odds updated 4 Oct, 03:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Chesterfield win since 3 October — the odds have shortened from 1.73 to 1.64 (−5%).

1+14 %

25 %20 %

3.85 → 4.40

X+1 %

25 %20 %

3.95 → 4.00

2-5 %

57 %52 %

1.73 → 1.64

Over 2,50 %

62 %57 %

1.55 → 1.55

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Crawley Town 0Draw 2Chesterfield 0

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Crawley Town have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Crawley Town

Chesterfield

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Crawley Town (6–13)

Chesterfield (11–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Crawley Town

Chesterfield

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Crawley Town

Chesterfield

The teams in numbers

Performance	Crawley Town	Chesterfield
Points	4	11
xPoints	7.3	13.2
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.32

Playing style	Crawley Town	Chesterfield
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.55	0.67
xT per match	0.9	1
xTA per match	1.2	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.34
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	14	9
Pass completion %	0.73	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.72
Passes per match	338	388
Passes against per match	225	268
Switches of play per match	26	38
Long balls per match	29	46

Set pieces	Crawley Town	Chesterfield
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	4.3	5
Corners against per match	5.2	3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.52

Other	Crawley Town	Chesterfield
Throw-in control	0.79	0.84

The goalkeepers	Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town)	Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield)
Saves	16	20
Save %	64%	67%
xG prevented	52%	66%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Crawley Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Chesterfield

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Crawley Town vs Chesterfield according to our model?

The model gives Chesterfield a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crawley Town 21%, draw 24%, Chesterfield 56%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.