EFL League TwoGresty Road, Crewe16°18 km/h

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    Crewe AlexandraCrewe AlexandraPossession control
    1–1
    York CityYork CityPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · York City (58%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 7.00 (+83 %)

    Crewe Alexandra – York City · EFL League Two

    1 · Crewe Alexandra 23%X 19%58% York City · 2

    Analysis: Crewe Alexandra – York City

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Crewe Alexandra's unbeaten streak in their last five league matches provides a solid foundation ahead of their clash with York City. However, it's York who enter as the favorites, with a 58% model probability suggesting their potential to disrupt the hosts' recent form. The small head-to-head sample between the two sides means we should place more weight on recent performances and expected goals, both of which indicate a compelling matchup.

    Despite Crewe Alexandra's slight edge in actual and expected points, York's expected goals per match of 1.7 nudge them ahead in attacking prowess. Both teams favor a possession-based style, yet York's ability to convert their chances might be the deciding factor. The model's most likely scoreline of 1-2 underscores the visitors' sharper edge in front of goal.

    With a high probability of over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams likely to find the net (65%), the dynamics point to an open contest with multiple scoring opportunities. The expected goals tally of 1.32 for Crewe and 2.11 for York aligns with this, suggesting that defenses may be breached frequently in this encounter. These figures lend weight to the prediction of a 1-2 scoreline, with potential for more fireworks if defenses falter.

    The standout betting angle here is the value on over 4.5 goals at odds of 5.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the model's 26% probability rating, this offers a 54% edge, making it an enticing option for those looking to capitalize on York's offensive capabilities and Crewe's resilience. While it's certainly a riskier play, the statistical backing makes it more than just a speculative punt.

    Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra
    Form DWWDD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #10xP/match #3Points #4
    Key players
    • Josh MarchFxG 0.39 · xT 0.04
    • Calum AgiusRBxG 0.18 · xT 0.05
    • Luke William OffordCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    York CityYork City
    Form WDWL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #8xP/match #20Points #7
    Key players
    • Oliver Ian BanksCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
    • Harry BoyesLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.22
    • Alexander John HuntCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.01
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Crewe Alexandra 23% · Draw 19% · York City 58%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - YorkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,68fair 4,48+71 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - CreweBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,96fair 11,65-23 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Crewe Alexandra – York City

    Predicted score matrix

    York City →
    Crewe Alexandra →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.5%
    0–16.6%
    0–27.2%
    0–35.1%
    0–4+4.4%
    1
    1–04.0%
    1–19.3%
    1–29.5%
    1–36.7%
    1–4+5.8%
    2
    2–02.8%
    2–15.9%
    2–26.3%
    2–34.4%
    2–4+3.8%
    3
    3–01.2%
    3–12.6%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+1.7%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-210%
    2. 2.1-19%
    3. 3.0-27%
    4. 4.1-37%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,32–2,11
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,533%
    @2.00
    Over 2,567%
    @2.00EV+33%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • York City to win58%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.06

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • York City to win58%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Alexander Lewis Newby to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Joshua Thomas March to score23%
    • Jack Patrick Powell to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.526% probability@7.00Bet365EV+83%reference odds
    • 2 · York City58% probability@2.70Bet365EV+57%reference odds
    • Over 4.526% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+54%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Crewe AlexandraX2 · York City
    Bet3652.403.30
    EV+ 57%
    2.70
    Betfair Exchange2.781.88
    EV+ 51%
    2.60
    Betsafe2.803.20
    EV+ 41%
    2.42
    Betsson2.803.20
    EV+ 41%
    2.42
    Nordicbet2.803.20
    EV+ 41%
    2.42
    Pinnacle2.903.44
    EV+ 41%
    2.42

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    10 %
    36 %31 %

    2.90 → 2.90

    X+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.36 → 3.44

    2+2 %
    41 %36 %

    2.37 → 2.42

    Over 2,50 %
    54 %49 %

    1.84 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 02/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Crewe Alexandra are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Crewe Alexandra
    York City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Crewe Alexandra (4–2)
    York City (8–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Crewe Alexandra
    Luke William Offord: 190 passningar, xT 0.31OffordJoshua Stephenson: 159 passningar, xT 0.12StephensonLewis Billington: 145 passningar, xT 0.44BillingtonMatus Holicek: 137 passningar, xT 0.19HolicekTom Booth: 122 passningar, xT -0.02BoothReece Christopher Hutchinson: 121 passningar, xT 0.99HutchinsonMichael David Demetriou: 93 passningar, xT 0.16DemetriouJoe Peter White: 71 passningar, xT 0.07WhiteCalum Agius: 63 passningar, xT 0.14AgiusJoel Tabiner: 60 passningar, xT 0.74TabinerJack Lankester: 49 passningar, xT -0.01Lankester
    York City
    Oliver Ian Banks: 258 passningar, xT 0.48BanksMorgan Gerald Williams: 247 passningar, xT 0.3WilliamsMark Stephen Kitching: 235 passningar, xT 0.45KitchingAlexander John Hunt: 191 passningar, xT -0.06HuntAlfie Shane McNally: 145 passningar, xT 0.29McNallyRyan Jack Glenn Fallowfield: 142 passningar, xT 0.19FallowfieldJoseph Grey: 126 passningar, xT 0.53GreyHarry Boyes: 118 passningar, xT 0.81BoyesJoseph Rabole Felix: 109 passningar, xT 0.22FelixZak Robert Johnson: 106 passningar, xT 0.09JohnsonAlexander Lewis Newby: 89 passningar, xT 0.2Newby
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Crewe Alexandra
    Luke William Offord: 190 passningar, xT 0.31OffordJoshua Stephenson: 159 passningar, xT 0.12StephensonLewis Billington: 145 passningar, xT 0.44BillingtonMatus Holicek: 137 passningar, xT 0.19HolicekTom Booth: 122 passningar, xT -0.02BoothReece Christopher Hutchinson: 121 passningar, xT 0.99HutchinsonMichael David Demetriou: 93 passningar, xT 0.16DemetriouJoe Peter White: 71 passningar, xT 0.07WhiteCalum Agius: 63 passningar, xT 0.14AgiusJoel Tabiner: 60 passningar, xT 0.74TabinerJack Lankester: 49 passningar, xT -0.01Lankester
    York City
    Oliver Ian Banks: 258 passningar, xT 0.48BanksMorgan Gerald Williams: 247 passningar, xT 0.3WilliamsMark Stephen Kitching: 235 passningar, xT 0.45KitchingAlexander John Hunt: 191 passningar, xT -0.06HuntAlfie Shane McNally: 145 passningar, xT 0.29McNallyRyan Jack Glenn Fallowfield: 142 passningar, xT 0.19FallowfieldJoseph Grey: 126 passningar, xT 0.53GreyHarry Boyes: 118 passningar, xT 0.81BoyesJoseph Rabole Felix: 109 passningar, xT 0.22FelixZak Robert Johnson: 106 passningar, xT 0.09JohnsonAlexander Lewis Newby: 89 passningar, xT 0.2Newby

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCrewe AlexandraYork City
    Points87
    xPoints7.14.5
    xG per match1.51.7
    xGA per match1.11.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.17
    Playing styleCrewe AlexandraYork City
    Build-up efficiency0.330.43
    Field tilt0.540.66
    xT per match0.991.1
    xTA per match0.630.73
    Won balls, offensive half2019
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.320.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.38
    Entries into the box per match1415
    Entries into the box against109
    Pass completion %0.740.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.74
    Passes per match320492
    Passes against per match330229
    Switches of play per match30.132.2
    Long balls per match3237
    Set piecesCrewe AlexandraYork City
    xG from free kicks0.060.04
    Corners per match6.96.8
    Corners against per match4.25.1
    xG per corner0.010.06
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.37
    First touch, defensive corners %0.470.5
    OtherCrewe AlexandraYork City
    Throw-in control0.720.83
    The goalkeepersTom Booth (Crewe Alexandra)Alfie Shane McNally (York City)
    Saves145
    Save %88%42%
    xG prevented49%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Crewe Alexandra
    Fixtures, form & tips
    York City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Crewe Alexandra vs York City according to our model?

    The model gives York City a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crewe Alexandra 23%, draw 19%, York City 58%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.