01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Newport County or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL League TwoRodney Parade, Newport12°20 km/h
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Newport CountyLow block & directvs
Colchester UnitedPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Newport County (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+13 %)
Newport County vs Colchester United · EFL League Two
1 · Newport County 35%X 31%34% Colchester United · 2
35%
31%
34%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Newport County – Colchester United
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The tension in this matchup might be all about styles clashing on the pitch. Newport County's straightforward, direct approach will face off against a Colchester United side that prefers to keep the ball and dictate the pace. Despite Colchester's slight edge in head-to-head encounters since 2023, with three wins out of four, the statistical model leans slightly towards Newport. The hosts' direct approach, despite a defence that tends to sit low, could still trouble a possession-oriented opponent.
The numbers paint a finely balanced picture. Newport's expected goals (xG) per match sit at 1.1, slightly lower than Colchester's 1.3, suggesting a marginal edge for the visitors in creating chances. However, when it comes to expected goals against (xGA), Newport's 1.2 shows a tighter defence compared to Colchester's 1.6, indicating that Colchester might struggle more in keeping their opponents at bay.
While the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the narrow gap in model probabilities (35% for Newport, 31% for a draw, and 34% for Colchester), the expected low-scoring nature of the game is confirmed by the over 2.5 goals probability of just 45%. The model's expected goals suggest a cautious affair, with Newport's advantage in xPoints (12.0 vs 8.9) hinting that they might convert their slight chances into a narrow victory, perhaps a 1-0 win.
For betting enthusiasts, the value might lie in backing Newport County, given the model's slight lean toward the hosts and their favorable xPoints standing. As always, this assessment is about the numbers and probabilities, not certainties.
Newport CountyForm LLDDW
League ranking xG #20xGA #12xT #16xP/match #7Points #17
Key players
- Christian Rhys DoidgeFxG 0.36 · xT 0.08
- Michael Adu-PokuRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.15
- Harrison BigginsCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
Colchester UnitedForm LLDDD
League ranking xG #11xGA #22xT #4xP/match #20Points #12
Key players
- Bradley Osezele Akhigbe Philip IhionvienFxG 0.17 · xT 0.04
- Jonathan Moses Momoh SesayRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.14
- Jack PayneCAMxG 0.29 · xT 0.22
Match prediction: Newport County – Colchester United
Predicted score matrix
Colchester United →
Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–19.5%
0–25.8%
0–32.3%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.2%
1–27.6%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.0%
2–18.4%
2–25.0%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.1%
3–13.6%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,30–1,19
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.98EV+8%
Over 2,545%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Newport County or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Gerard Garner to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Jonathan Moses Momoh Sesay to score30%
- Jay Williams to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.59% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- Under 0.59% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Newport County | X | 2 · Colchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.62 | EV+ 7% 3.40 | 2.45 |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | EV+ 7% 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Nordicbet | 2.62 | EV+ 7% 3.40 | 2.45 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 19:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
39 %34 %
2.45 → 2.60
X-3 %
29 %24 %
3.50 → 3.40
2-4 %
40 %35 %
2.50 → 2.40
Over 2,5+4 %
55 %50 %
1.73 → 1.80
LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNewport County 0Draw 1Colchester United 3
Goals: 2–8 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Newport County
Colchester United
Newport County (12–12)
Colchester United (10–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Newport County
Colchester United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Newport County
Colchester United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Newport County | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 10 |
| xPoints | 12 | 8.9 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Newport County | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.52 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 150 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 319 | 271 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.6 | 25.1 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Newport County | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.21 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| Other | Newport County | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Jordan Wright (Newport County) | Thimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala (Colchester United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 30 |
| Save % | 70% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Newport County vs Colchester United according to our model?
The model gives Newport County a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newport County 35%, draw 31%, Colchester United 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.