Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction: Home win 56% (17 Oct 2026)

Premier League17 October 2026Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth10°22 km/h

Läs på svenska

BournemouthPossession control

SunderlandPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bournemouth (56%)

1 · Bournemouth 56%X 26%18% Sunderland · 2

56%

26%

18%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bournemouth vs Sunderland (Premier League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Bournemouth win 56%, draw 26%, Sunderland win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Bournemouth 1.76, Sunderland 1.07. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Bournemouth or draw 82%, Sunderland or draw 44%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Bournemouth – Sunderland

Marcus Johansson · 9 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Bournemouth's 56% probability of victory against Sunderland suggests a clear lean towards the hosts. Their expected goals are higher at 1.76 compared to Sunderland's 1.07, signaling potential dominance in front of the net. Despite Sunderland having a slight edge in actual points this season with 4 to Bournemouth's 3, the xPoints tilt heavily towards Bournemouth, indicating perhaps some underperformance on the scoreboard relative to their actual play.

In the two head-to-head encounters since 2022, Sunderland holds the upper hand with a win and a draw in a limited sample, which weighs less than the current form and xG data. Both teams play a possession-focused style, which could lead to a tightly contested midfield and potentially fewer clear scoring opportunities. With an over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 54% and both teams to score at 55%, the model hints at a relatively open contest despite the tactical approaches.

The balance leans towards a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Bournemouth, with the match likely going over 2.5 goals. The numbers underline Bournemouth as the stronger side given the hosts' statistical edge in xPoints and xG.

Bournemouth

Form LDDDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #12xP/match #2Points #17

Key players

Marcus TavernierLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
EvanilsonFxG 0.24 · xT 0.06
Alex ScottCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07

Sunderland

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #8xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.31
Brian BrobbeyFxG 0.56 · xT 0.00
Trai HumeFxG 0.07 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Bournemouth – Sunderland

Predicted score matrix

Sunderland →

Bournemouth →

0–06.2%

0–16.0%

0–23.4%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.1%

1–111.4%

1–25.9%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.2%

2–19.8%

2–25.2%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.4%

3–15.7%

3–23.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.5%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,76–1,07

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.01

Over 2,554%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bournemouth to win56%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bournemouth to win56%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Ryan Christie to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Ryan Christie to score31%
Granit Xhaka to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bournemouth56% probability@2.02LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
1 · Bournemouth56% probability@2.00PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
1 · Bournemouth56% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bournemouth	X	2 · Sunderland
Betsafe	EV+ 11% 1.98	3.55	3.70
LeoVegas	EV+ 13% 2.02	3.60	3.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 11% 1.98	3.55	3.70
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 2.00	3.57	3.64

Odds updated 10 Oct, 18:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Bournemouth 0Draw 1Sunderland 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bournemouth

Sunderland

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bournemouth (6–8)

Sunderland (6–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Sunderland

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Sunderland

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bournemouth	Sunderland
Points	3	4
xPoints	8.5	6.1
xG per match	1.7	1.6
xGA per match	1.2	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.23

Playing style	Bournemouth	Sunderland
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.46	0.45
xT per match	0.91	0.99
xTA per match	0.93	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	29	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.74	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	323	329
Passes against per match	367	350
Switches of play per match	21.6	27.3
Long balls per match	30	37

Set pieces	Bournemouth	Sunderland
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.04
Corners per match	4.2	4
Corners against per match	4.6	3.8
xG per corner	0.11	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.63

Other	Bournemouth	Sunderland
Throw-in control	0.63	0.69

The goalkeepers	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)	Robin Roefs (Sunderland)
Saves	11	6
Save %	58%	38%
xG prevented	62%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bournemouth

Fixtures, form & tips

Sunderland

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bournemouth vs Sunderland according to our model?

The model gives Bournemouth a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bournemouth 56%, draw 26%, Sunderland 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

The model expects 1.76 goals (xG) for Bournemouth and 1.07 for Sunderland, 2.83 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bournemouth or draw (1X) 82%, Sunderland or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.