01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Premier LeagueSt James' Park, Newcastle9°17 km/h
Läs på svenska
Newcastle UnitedBalanced & physicalvs
Aston VillaLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Aston Villa (37%)Soft draw
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa · Premier League
1 · Newcastle United 35%X 28%37% Aston Villa · 2
35%
28%
37%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa (Premier League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Newcastle United win 35%, draw 28%, Aston Villa win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Newcastle United 1.40, Aston Villa 1.49. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Newcastle United or draw 63%, Aston Villa or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Newcastle United – Aston Villa
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Aston Villa's direct playing style poses a real challenge for Newcastle United, particularly given the visitors' strength in creating chances soon after winning possession. Villa's xG of 0.34 within eight seconds of regaining the ball dwarfs Newcastle's 0.12, suggesting an ability to capitalize swiftly on turnovers. This quick transition play might exploit any lapse in concentration from the Magpies, whose defensive setup could be tested.
Despite Newcastle's strong home record historically, winning 56% of their last 41 home matches, the numbers reveal a tighter contest on the cards. The head-to-head record is also slightly skewed in Villa's favor, with two wins out of four meetings since 2022. Although this is a limited data set and should weigh less than current form, it's indicative of Villa's capability to challenge Newcastle effectively.
Looking at expected goals, Villa has the edge with an xG of 1.49 compared to Newcastle's 1.40. While both teams are expected to find the net, Newcastle's higher xGA per match at 2.0 compared to Villa's 1.8 suggests potential vulnerabilities in their defensive line. With an over 2.5 goals probability at 55%, the game could swing either way, but the model slightly leans toward Villa.
For punters, the standout betting angle lies in Villa's odds of 3.25 at LeoVegas, carrying a 20% edge as per the model's 37% probability. This, coupled with the relative inefficiencies in Newcastle's recent defensive performances, backs Villa as a value play. Additionally, considering the potential for a tightly contested matchup, the draw at odds of 3.7 also presents a viable option with a 2% edge. For those eyeing alternatives, the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.3 provides a smaller, yet present, value play.
Predicted scoreline: Aston Villa 2-1 Newcastle United.
Newcastle UnitedForm DWDLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #19xT #19xP/match #19Points #9
Key players
- Anthony ElangaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
- Yoane WissaFxG 0.40 · xT 0.01
- Lewis HallLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
Aston VillaForm LLDLW
League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #20xP/match #16Points #16
Key players
- Nicolas JacksonFxG 0.26 · xT 0.08
- John McGinnRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
- Ross BarkleyCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Newcastle United – Aston Villa
Predicted score matrix
Aston Villa →
Newcastle United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–17.9%
0–26.2%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.4%
1–111.9%
1–28.6%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.4%
2–18.1%
2–26.0%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.8%
3–22.8%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,40–1,49
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.36EV+6%
Over 2,555%
@1.61
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Boubacar Bernard Kamara to score14%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Harvey Lewis Barnes to score22%
- Ross Barkley to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Aston Villa37% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
- 2 · Aston Villa37% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
- 2 · Aston Villa37% probability@3.20LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Newcastle United | X | 2 · Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.08 | EV+ 4% 3.75 | EV+ 18% 3.20 |
| LeoVegas | 2.10 | EV+ 2% 3.70 | EV+ 18% 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.10 | EV+ 4% 3.75 | EV+ 20% 3.25 |
Odds updated 10 Oct, 19:37
Odds movement
1+1 %
48 %43 %
2.08 → 2.10
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.70 → 3.70
2-2 %
32 %27 %
3.25 → 3.20
Over 2,5+1 %
62 %57 %
1.55 → 1.57
LeoVegas · 13 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNewcastle United 1Draw 1Aston Villa 2
Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.
Key facts
- Newcastle United win 56% of their home matches all-time (41 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
Newcastle United (9–9)
Aston Villa (4–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 4 |
| xPoints | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per match | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.62 | 0.41 |
| Playing style | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 15 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 344 | 327 |
| Passes against per match | 352 | 402 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.4 | 16.4 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 20 |
| Set pieces | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| Other | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukáš Horníček (Newcastle United) | Zion Suzuki (Aston Villa) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 15 |
| Save % | 74% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fulham – Hull City17 October 2026
- Bournemouth – Sunderland17 October 2026
- Tottenham Hotspur – Coventry City17 October 2026
- Brentford – Liverpool17 October 2026
- Nottingham Forest – Arsenal17 October 2026
- Manchester City – Ipswich Town17 October 2026
- Everton – Chelsea17 October 2026
- Leeds United – Manchester United17 October 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion – Crystal Palace17 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Newcastle United vs Aston Villa according to our model?
The model gives Aston Villa a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newcastle United 35%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?
The model expects 1.40 goals (xG) for Newcastle United and 1.49 for Aston Villa, 2.89 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Newcastle United or draw (1X) 63%, Aston Villa or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.