Premier LeagueThe City Ground, Nottingham9°21 km/h

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    Nottingham ForestNottingham ForestLow block & direct
    vs
    ArsenalArsenalPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Arsenal (52%)Best value by the model: 1 · Nottingham Forest @ 6.00 (+20 %)

    Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal · Premier League

    1 · Nottingham Forest 20%X 28%52% Arsenal · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal (Premier League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Nottingham Forest win 20%, draw 28%, Arsenal win 52%. Expected goals (xG): Nottingham Forest 0.86, Arsenal 1.42. Most likely score: 0-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%. Double chance: Nottingham Forest or draw 48%, Arsenal or draw 80%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A salient aspect of Nottingham Forest versus Arsenal is the visitors' dominance in possession against Forest's counter-attacking setup. Arsenal's high press and ball control are expected to dictate the tempo, contrasting sharply with Forest's low defensive line and direct play. This stylistic clash suggests a game where the visitors will have more of the ball, and the numbers back this up. Arsenal's expected goals stand at 1.42 compared to Forest's 0.86, highlighting their potential to break down the hosts.

    Arsenal comes into the game as the stronger side, with the model giving them a 52% chance of victory. Their historical edge in recent head-to-heads, albeit from a small sample of four matches, shows two draws and two losses for Nottingham Forest. While Forest has shown some resilience this season with an expected points tally close to Arsenal's (8.2 vs. 8.5), they still trail in actual points (5 vs. 12). This disparity underscores Arsenal's ability to convert performances into results more effectively.

    Defensively, Arsenal boasts a tighter backline with an xGA of 0.86 compared to Forest's 1.1. This solidity underpins the likelihood of a low-scoring affair, with the model's most probable scoreline being 0-1 in favor of the visitors (14%). The over/under 2.5 goals market leans towards under, with just a 40% chance of exceeding that line. The chances of both teams finding the net are similarly limited at 44%, reinforcing the expectation of a controlled, defence-oriented match.

    For those seeking a betting angle, Arsenal's outright win at odds around evens (e.g., 2.00 with Bet365) offers value, given their possession advantage, defensive stability, and the model's preference for a low-scoring away win.

    Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
    Form LDDWL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #3xP/match #5Points #13
    Key players
    • Liam DelapFxG 0.37 · xT 0.04
    • Morgan Gibbs WhiteRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.21
    • Neco WilliamsLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
    ArsenalArsenal
    Form WWWWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #1xT #10xP/match #3Points #2
    Key players
    • Kai HavertzFxG 0.25 · xT -0.02
    • Bukayo SakaRWxG 0.66 · xT 0.04
    • Declan RiceCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.17

    Match prediction: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal

    Predicted score matrix

    Arsenal →
    Nottingham Forest →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.7%
    0–114.2%
    0–210.4%
    0–34.9%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–08.4%
    1–112.9%
    1–28.9%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–03.8%
    2–15.3%
    2–23.8%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–01.1%
    3–11.5%
    3–21.1%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.4%
    4+–20.3%
    4+–30.1%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-114%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.0-210%
    5. 5.1-29%
    Expected goals
    0,86–1,42
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.90EV+14%
    Over 2,540%
    @1.94

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Arsenal to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.61

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Arsenal to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • Kai Lukas Havertz to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • Kai Lukas Havertz to score25%
    • Declan Rice to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Nottingham Forest20% probability@6.00BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
    • 1 · Nottingham Forest20% probability@6.00NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
    • 1 · Nottingham Forest20% probability@5.98PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Nottingham ForestX2 · Arsenal
    Betsafe
    EV+ 20%
    6.00
    EV+ 9%
    3.90    		1.55
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 10%
    5.50
    EV+ 11%
    4.00    		1.58
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 20%
    6.00
    EV+ 10%
    3.95    		1.58
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 19%
    5.98
    EV+ 4%
    3.73    		1.60

    Odds updated 11 Oct, 00:37

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Nottingham Forest 0Draw 2Arsenal 2
    Goals: 0–6 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Nottingham Forest
    Arsenal
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Nottingham Forest (4–5)
    Arsenal (8–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Nottingham Forest
    Murillo: 201 passningar, xT 0.55MurilloNeco Williams: 161 passningar, xT 0.59WilliamsJames McAtee: 159 passningar, xT 0.54McAteeMorgan Gibbs White: 148 passningar, xT 0.77WhiteXaver Schlager: 134 passningar, xT 0.44SchlagerJair Cunha: 118 passningar, xT 0.26CunhaOla Aina: 96 passningar, xT 0.98AinaDaniel Munoz: 85 passningar, xT 0.47MunozMatz Sels: 84 passningar, xT 0.11SelsNikola Milenković: 77 passningar, xT 0.05MilenkovićIgor Jesus: 70 passningar, xT 0.03Jesus
    Arsenal
    Declan Rice: 308 passningar, xT 0.69RiceGabriel Magalhaes: 236 passningar, xT 0.36MagalhaesMartin Ødegaard: 213 passningar, xT 0.97ØdegaardMyles Lewis Skelly: 171 passningar, xT 0.08SkellyBen White: 153 passningar, xT 0.43WhiteDavid Raya: 146 passningar, xT 0.29RayaEzri Konsa: 132 passningar, xT 0.12KonsaBukayo Saka: 131 passningar, xT 0SakaRiccardo Calafiori: 126 passningar, xT 0.39CalafioriChristos Tzolis: 113 passningar, xT 0.46TzolisCristhian Mosquera: 113 passningar, xT 0.08Mosquera
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Nottingham Forest
    Murillo: 201 passningar, xT 0.55MurilloNeco Williams: 161 passningar, xT 0.59WilliamsJames McAtee: 159 passningar, xT 0.54McAteeMorgan Gibbs White: 148 passningar, xT 0.77WhiteXaver Schlager: 134 passningar, xT 0.44SchlagerJair Cunha: 118 passningar, xT 0.26CunhaOla Aina: 96 passningar, xT 0.98AinaDaniel Munoz: 85 passningar, xT 0.47MunozMatz Sels: 84 passningar, xT 0.11SelsNikola Milenković: 77 passningar, xT 0.05MilenkovićIgor Jesus: 70 passningar, xT 0.03Jesus
    Arsenal
    Declan Rice: 308 passningar, xT 0.69RiceGabriel Magalhaes: 236 passningar, xT 0.36MagalhaesMartin Ødegaard: 213 passningar, xT 0.97ØdegaardMyles Lewis Skelly: 171 passningar, xT 0.08SkellyBen White: 153 passningar, xT 0.43WhiteDavid Raya: 146 passningar, xT 0.29RayaEzri Konsa: 132 passningar, xT 0.12KonsaBukayo Saka: 131 passningar, xT 0SakaRiccardo Calafiori: 126 passningar, xT 0.39CalafioriChristos Tzolis: 113 passningar, xT 0.46TzolisCristhian Mosquera: 113 passningar, xT 0.08Mosquera

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNottingham ForestArsenal
    Points512
    xPoints8.28.5
    xG per match1.71.7
    xGA per match1.10.86
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.28
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.130.14
    Playing styleNottingham ForestArsenal
    Build-up efficiency0.330.35
    Field tilt0.550.66
    xT per match1.20.91
    xTA per match0.610.59
    Won balls, offensive half2323
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.280.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.3
    Entries into the box per match1419
    Entries into the box against1110
    Pass completion %0.740.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.78
    Passes per match308433
    Passes against per match351265
    Switches of play per match25.424
    Long balls per match3226
    Set piecesNottingham ForestArsenal
    xG from free kicks0.050.02
    Corners per match3.45
    Corners against per match4.63.2
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.030.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.430.75
    OtherNottingham ForestArsenal
    Throw-in control0.790.77
    The goalkeepersMatz Sels (Nottingham Forest)David Raya (Arsenal)
    Saves119
    Save %69%69%
    xG prevented66%78%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Nottingham Forest
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Arsenal
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal according to our model?

    The model gives Arsenal a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nottingham Forest 20%, draw 28%, Arsenal 52%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

    The model expects 0.86 goals (xG) for Nottingham Forest and 1.42 for Arsenal, 2.27 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Nottingham Forest or draw (1X) 48%, Arsenal or draw (X2) 80% and no draw (12) 72%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.