Fulham vs Hull City Prediction: Home win 61% (17 Oct 2026)

Premier League17 October 2026Craven Cottage, London11°21 km/h

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FulhamPossession control

Hull CityLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Fulham (61%)

1 · Fulham 61%X 22%17% Hull City · 2

61%

22%

17%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fulham vs Hull City (Premier League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Fulham win 61%, draw 22%, Hull City win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Fulham 1.85, Hull City 0.91. Most likely score: 1-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Fulham or draw 83%, Hull City or draw 39%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fulham – Hull City

Sofia Andersson · 9 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Fulham enters the clash with Hull City as the statistical favorite, boasting a 61% win probability according to the model. This confidence contrasts sharply with their current points tally, where Hull City holds an 8 to 2 advantage. However, when assessing expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints), Fulham shows hidden strength, closely matching Hull City in xPoints and outperforming them in xG. This suggests that their recent struggles might not reflect their underlying performance.

Fulham's style of possession control is set against Hull City's low-block and direct counterattacks. This contrast could dictate the match’s tempo, with Fulham likely to dominate the ball. The expected goals for this match, 1.85 for Fulham versus 0.91 for Hull, imply that Fulham will create more and higher-quality chances. Yet, with an xGA difference of only 0.1 per match in the season stats, both sides exhibit similar defensive resilience, adding a layer of uncertainty to the goal market.

The probabilities suggest tight scorelines, with 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0 each at 11%. The model hints at Hull City's slight defensive edge in xGA, yet still indicates a likely narrow win for the home team. The over/under 2.5 goals market teeters at 52% for the over, suggesting a balanced but slight lean toward a lower-scoring affair. Meanwhile, both teams to score stands similarly poised at 51%, reflecting the potential for a cagey encounter with limited scoring.

The model's numbers are more reliable indicators of potential outcomes than recent points form.

For bettors, Fulham's victory at odds of 1.667 with LeoVegas presents a 2% expected value edge. Given their demonstrated performance metrics and the model's confidence, this bet aligns with the statistical lean, making it the sharpest angle in the matchup.

Fulham

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #7xP/match #11Points #19

Key players

Joachim AndersenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Josh KingRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.03
Antonee RobinsonLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09

Hull City

Form WWDDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #8xT #18xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Mohamed BelloumiRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Oli McBurnieFxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
Regan SlaterCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Fulham – Hull City

Predicted score matrix

Hull City →

Fulham →

0–06.6%

0–15.4%

0–22.6%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.3%

1–110.9%

1–24.9%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.8%

2–19.9%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.7%

3–16.1%

3–22.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.7%

4+–14.3%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-011%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,85–0,91

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.11EV+1%

Over 2,552%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fulham to win61%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fulham to win61%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Rodrigo Muniz Carvalho to score34%
Matt Davidson Rider Crooks to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Fulham61% probability@1.67LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
1 · Fulham61% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
1 · Fulham61% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fulham	X	2 · Hull City
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 1.65	3.90	5.10
LeoVegas	EV+ 2% 1.67	4.00	4.70
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 1.65	3.95	5.15
Pinnacle	EV+ 2% 1.67	3.98	4.83

Odds updated 10 Oct, 18:38

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fulham

Hull City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fulham (5–8)

Hull City (6–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fulham

Hull City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fulham

Hull City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fulham	Hull City
Points	2	8
xPoints	7.3	7.4
xG per match	1.7	1
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.41	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.14

Playing style	Fulham	Hull City
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.5	0.24
xT per match	1	0.69
xTA per match	1.2	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	19	23
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.17
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	15	17
Pass completion %	0.8	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.68
Passes per match	475	212
Passes against per match	393	535
Switches of play per match	34	22.3
Long balls per match	31	30

Set pieces	Fulham	Hull City
xG from free kicks	0	0.07
Corners per match	5.7	3.4
Corners against per match	5.3	6
xG per corner	0.01	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.46	0.63

Other	Fulham	Hull City
Throw-in control	0.75	0.71

The goalkeepers	Bernd Leno (Fulham)	Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City)
Saves	17	19
Save %	68%	83%
xG prevented	55%	85%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fulham

Fixtures, form & tips

Hull City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fulham vs Hull City according to our model?

The model gives Fulham a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fulham 61%, draw 22%, Hull City 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fulham vs Hull City?

The model expects 1.85 goals (xG) for Fulham and 0.91 for Hull City, 2.77 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fulham or draw (1X) 83%, Hull City or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.