Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction: Away win 39% (17 Oct 2026)

Premier League17 October 2026Gtech Community Stadium, London11°21 km/h

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BrentfordLow block & direct

LiverpoolPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Liverpool (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.45 (+7 %)

1 · Brentford 33%X 28%39% Liverpool · 2

33%

28%

39%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Brentford vs Liverpool (Premier League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Brentford win 33%, draw 28%, Liverpool win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Brentford 1.39, Liverpool 1.56. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Brentford or draw 61%, Liverpool or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Brentford – Liverpool

Anna Karlsson · 9 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Brentford and Liverpool is tight, even with a small sample size of four matches since 2022. Brentford has one victory, one draw, and two losses. Despite Liverpool's slight historical edge, the hosts seem to have found a formula that makes life difficult for their opponents, evidenced by their current seven-match unbeaten streak in the league. The visitors are also on a solid run, having avoided defeat in their last six league outings. These overlapping streaks suggest a tense and balanced encounter.

Brentford's playing style of low defense paired with direct attacks has been effective, as shown by their superior xPoints (8.2) compared to Liverpool's 7.4. The hosts generate 2.1 expected goals per match, slightly better than Liverpool's 1.8, pointing to Brentford's ability to create quality chances quickly. On the flip side, both teams are evenly matched defensively, each conceding an xGA of 1.3 per game. This suggests that while they can be porous at times, they are also capable of defensive resilience.

The expected scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 capture the tightness in this matchup, with Liverpool having a narrow edge according to the model probabilities (39% to Brentford's 33%). However, Brentford's knack for disrupting possession-heavy teams like Liverpool could tilt the balance slightly back in their favor. The model actually leans toward a Liverpool win at 39%, narrowly ahead of the draw at 28%, with a 12% likelihood of a 1-1 finish, making a tight scoreline a realistic possibility.

From a betting angle, the value lies in the unders markets and the potential for a draw. The under 3.5 goals bet at odds of 1.571 with LeoVegas holds a slight edge, rated by the model at 66%. For those seeking bolder value, the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.375 or the draw at 3.7 are intriguing options, each offering a 3-4% edge over the market.

Brentford

Form WDDDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #2xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Igor ThiagoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
Kevin SchadeLWxG 0.39 · xT 0.04
Nathan CollinsCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.08

Liverpool

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #5xP/match #9Points #6

Key players

Alexander IsakFxG 0.75 · xT -0.02
Dominik SzoboszlaiCMxG 0.28 · xT 0.07
Virgil van DijkCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Brentford – Liverpool

Predicted score matrix

Liverpool →

Brentford →

0–05.6%

0–17.9%

0–26.4%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.8%

1–07.0%

1–111.7%

1–28.9%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.0%

2–17.9%

2–26.1%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.3%

3–13.6%

3–22.8%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,39–1,56

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+18%

Under 2,544%

@2.45EV+7%

Over 2,556%

@1.56

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Liverpool or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Liverpool or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Alexander Isak to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Alexander Isak to score28%
Dominik Szoboszlai to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.544% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.544% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
Under 1.520% probability@5.14BetsafeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brentford	X	2 · Liverpool
Betsafe	2.72	3.60	2.42
LeoVegas	2.70	EV+ 3% 3.70	2.40
Nordicbet	2.72	3.60	2.45

Odds updated 11 Oct, 00:37

Odds movement

1-1 %

37 %32 %

2.75 → 2.72

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.65 → 3.60

2+1 %

42 %37 %

2.42 → 2.45

Over 2,5+1 %

64 %59 %

1.55 → 1.56

Nordicbet · 9 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Brentford 1Draw 1Liverpool 2

Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Brentford are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Liverpool FC are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brentford

Liverpool

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brentford (10–4)

Liverpool (7–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brentford

Liverpool

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brentford

Liverpool

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brentford	Liverpool
Points	9	9
xPoints	8.2	7.4
xG per match	2.1	1.8
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.6	0.55
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.2

Playing style	Brentford	Liverpool
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.34
Field tilt	0.43	0.64
xT per match	1.4	1.1
xTA per match	0.77	1
Won balls, offensive half	30	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.29
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.71	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.76
Passes per match	288	442
Passes against per match	370	285
Switches of play per match	17.8	34.6
Long balls per match	28	39

Set pieces	Brentford	Liverpool
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.06
Corners per match	4.3	4
Corners against per match	4.9	4.4
xG per corner	0.11	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.59	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.64

Other	Brentford	Liverpool
Throw-in control	0.69	0.74

The goalkeepers	Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford)	Alisson Becker (Liverpool)
Saves	17	14
Save %	81%	78%
xG prevented	37%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brentford

Fixtures, form & tips

Liverpool

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brentford vs Liverpool according to our model?

The model gives Liverpool a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brentford 33%, draw 28%, Liverpool 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Brentford vs Liverpool?

The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Brentford and 1.56 for Liverpool, 2.95 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Brentford or draw (1X) 61%, Liverpool or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.