Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction: Home win 49% (31 Oct 2026)

Premier League31 October 2026Villa Park, Birmingham10°14 km/h

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Aston VillaLow block & direct

FulhamPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Aston Villa (49%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.11 (+0 %)

1 · Aston Villa 49%X 26%25% Fulham · 2

49%

26%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Aston Villa vs Fulham (Premier League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Aston Villa win 49%, draw 26%, Fulham win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Aston Villa 1.59, Fulham 1.18. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Aston Villa or draw 75%, Fulham or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Aston Villa – Fulham

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Aston Villa's home edge at 49% probability stands out as the key factor. Set against Fulham's 25% chance, it underscores a tilt towards the hosts. Villa's record of winning 55% of their home matches is a strong historical marker, albeit with a small head-to-head sample since 2022, where Villa lead 3-1 in wins. The odds offered by LeoVegas at 2.08 for a Villa win suggest a valuable opportunity with a 2% edge.

Despite Villa's edge in points, Fulham's underlying statistics show efficiency. They lead in expected points and xG per match, suggesting they can make possession count. However, Villa's direct style, especially at home, might disrupt Fulham's control strategy, despite the latter's better defensive numbers. The expected goals lean towards a narrow Villa advantage at 1.59 to 1.18. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 reflect a likely tight contest.

Weather plays a subtle role, with the forecasted rain potentially dampening goal expectancy. Despite a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals, the conditions might suppress scoring opportunities. The model's preference for Villa at odds of 2.08 with LeoVegas remains the sharpest angle, hinting at a likely 1-0 or 2-1 win for the hosts.

Aston Villa

Form DLWDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #20xP/match #14Points #11

Key players

Nicolas JacksonFxG 0.31 · xT 0.12
Johan ManzambiCAMxG 0.56 · xT 0.10
John McGinnRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.07

Fulham

Form LDDLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #4xP/match #7Points #18

Key players

Alex IwobiLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.38
Antonee RobinsonLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
Joachim AndersenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Aston Villa – Fulham

Predicted score matrix

Fulham →

Aston Villa →

0–06.6%

0–17.0%

0–24.4%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.6%

1–112.1%

1–26.9%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.4%

2–25.5%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.2%

3–15.0%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,59–1,18

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.11EV+0%

Over 2,553%

@1.74

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Aston Villa to win49%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Aston Villa to win49%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Johan Manzambi to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Gonzalo García Torres to score23%
Shea Emmanuel Charles to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.547% probability@2.11BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.11NordicbetEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Aston Villa	X	2 · Fulham
Betsafe	1.88	3.75	3.80
LeoVegas	1.95	3.70	3.60
Nordicbet	1.90	3.75	3.85

Odds updated 25 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

1-6 %

49 %44 %

2.08 → 1.95

X+3 %

29 %24 %

3.60 → 3.70

2+7 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.60

Over 2,50 %

57 %52 %

1.70 → 1.70

LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Aston Villa 3Draw 0Fulham 1

Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Aston Villa win 55% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Aston Villa

Fulham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Aston Villa (7–11)

Fulham (7–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Aston Villa

Fulham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Aston Villa

Fulham

The teams in numbers

Performance	Aston Villa	Fulham
Points	8	5
xPoints	9	10.6
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.17

Playing style	Aston Villa	Fulham
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.44	0.54
xT per match	0.59	1.2
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	18	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	16
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.76
Passes per match	328	498
Passes against per match	375	361
Switches of play per match	16.4	31.3
Long balls per match	22	29

Set pieces	Aston Villa	Fulham
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	3.1	6.3
Corners against per match	4.2	4.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.5

Other	Aston Villa	Fulham
Throw-in control	0.68	0.76

The goalkeepers	Zion Suzuki (Aston Villa)	Bernd Leno (Fulham)
Saves	19	20
Save %	73%	67%
xG prevented	53%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Aston Villa

Fixtures, form & tips

Fulham

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Aston Villa vs Fulham according to our model?

The model gives Aston Villa a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aston Villa 49%, draw 26%, Fulham 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Fulham?

The model expects 1.59 goals (xG) for Aston Villa and 1.18 for Fulham, 2.78 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Aston Villa or draw (1X) 75%, Fulham or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.