Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction: Away win 43% (1 Nov 2026)

Premier League1 November 2026Anfield, Liverpool11°1,3 mm17 km/h

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LiverpoolPossession & high press

ArsenalPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Arsenal (43%)

1 · Liverpool 30%X 27%43% Arsenal · 2

30%

27%

43%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Liverpool vs Arsenal (Premier League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Liverpool win 30%, draw 27%, Arsenal win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Liverpool 1.28, Arsenal 1.50. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Liverpool or draw 57%, Arsenal or draw 70%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Liverpool – Arsenal

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Arsenal's 43% chance of victory, as projected by the model, sets the stage for this clash against Liverpool, who are given a 30% chance. Though Arsenal holds a historical edge in recent head-to-heads, with two wins to one in eight encounters, this sample is too small to outweigh current form and expected goals. Arsenal's solid defensive record, with an xGA of 0.83 per match, outshines Liverpool's 1.3, suggesting the visitors have the ability to stifle the hosts' attack.

Despite Liverpool's impressive 66% home win ratio historically, recent form has been less convincing. The expected goals tally of 1.50 to 1.28 in Arsenal's favor underscores their offensive edge. Both sides' similar playing styles—possession and high press—might cancel each other out, potentially leading to a tightly contested affair. Yet, with rain expected, scoring opportunities could be suppressed, adding an unpredictable element already reflected in the over/under 2.5 goal model.

The model's lean toward Arsenal, supported by their defensive metrics, suggests they hold the edge in this matchup. A 1-2 scoreline, aligning with the 9% probability, seems plausible, with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 53%.

Liverpool

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #6xP/match #9Points #5

Key players

Alexis Mac AllisterCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
Virgil van DijkCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Florian WirtzCAMxG 0.29 · xT 0.06

Arsenal

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #1xT #7xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Bukayo SakaRWxG 0.50 · xT 0.06
Declan RiceCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Martin ØdegaardCMxG 0.28 · xT 0.26

Match prediction: Liverpool – Arsenal

Predicted score matrix

Arsenal →

Liverpool →

0–06.5%

0–19.0%

0–27.0%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.8%

1–07.6%

1–112.2%

1–28.9%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.4%

2–05.1%

2–17.6%

2–25.7%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.2%

3–13.2%

3–22.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,28–1,50

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.11

Over 2,553%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Arsenal or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Arsenal or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Mikel Merino Zazón to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Alexander Isak to score25%
Declan Rice to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Liverpool	X	2 · Arsenal
Betsafe	3.10	3.60	2.18
LeoVegas	3.15	3.55	2.18
Nordicbet	3.15	3.60	2.18
Pinnacle	3.10	3.64	2.19

Odds updated 25 Oct, 01:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

33 %28 %

3.16 → 3.10

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.62 → 3.64

2+1 %

46 %41 %

2.17 → 2.19

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.78 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Liverpool 1Draw 5Arsenal 2

Goals: 11–13 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Arsenal FC dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Liverpool FC win 66% of their home matches all-time (79 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Liverpool

Arsenal

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Liverpool (9–8)

Arsenal (11–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Liverpool

Arsenal

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Liverpool

Arsenal

The teams in numbers

Performance	Liverpool	Arsenal
Points	12	18
xPoints	10.1	11.5
xG per match	1.7	1.7
xGA per match	1.3	0.83
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.47	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.11

Playing style	Liverpool	Arsenal
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.35
Field tilt	0.61	0.72
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	1	0.56
Won balls, offensive half	26	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.27
Entries into the box per match	13	18
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.78
Passes per match	411	456
Passes against per match	309	255
Switches of play per match	30.6	23.6
Long balls per match	33	25

Set pieces	Liverpool	Arsenal
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	4.9	4.7
Corners against per match	4.4	4
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.82

Other	Liverpool	Arsenal
Throw-in control	0.71	0.77

The goalkeepers	Alisson Becker (Liverpool)	David Raya (Arsenal)
Saves	16	16
Save %	67%	76%
xG prevented	41%	81%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Liverpool

Fixtures, form & tips

Arsenal

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Liverpool vs Arsenal according to our model?

The model gives Arsenal a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Liverpool 30%, draw 27%, Arsenal 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Arsenal?

The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Liverpool and 1.50 for Arsenal, 2.78 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Liverpool or draw (1X) 57%, Arsenal or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.