Coventry City vs Sunderland Prediction: Away win 35% (31 Oct 2026)

Premier League31 October 2026Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry10°15 km/h

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Coventry CityLow block & direct

SunderlandPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Sunderland (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+10 %)

1 · Coventry City 33%X 32%35% Sunderland · 2

33%

32%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Coventry City vs Sunderland (Premier League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Coventry City win 33%, draw 32%, Sunderland win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Coventry City 1.20, Sunderland 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Coventry City or draw 65%, Sunderland or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Coventry City – Sunderland

Sofia Andersson · 23 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Coventry City's direct style might clash interestingly with Sunderland's possession-heavy approach, but the numbers suggest a tight contest. With Sunderland on a four-match losing streak, pressure mounts against a Coventry side slightly ahead in points and xPoints. Both these teams have their strengths: Sunderland boasts a marginal xG advantage, whereas Coventry holds a slight edge in expected goals against. The data hints at a narrow matchup, with each team having a 1-in-3 chance to win, and a 13% likelihood for a 1-1 draw, the most probable outcome.

The expected goals are finely balanced, with Coventry at 1.20 and Sunderland at 1.23. These suggest close margins and reinforce the model's lean towards Sunderland, albeit very slightly. However, Coventry has the psychological edge with better recent form based on points. The rain and damp conditions might slow the game down further, supporting the prediction of a low-scoring affair. The weather's impact is already factored into the model's expectation for 44% over 2.5 goals, hinting that defenses might prevail under these conditions.

Sunderland's possession control will be tested against Coventry's direct play. Despite Coventry's more solid defensive numbers, Sunderland's style could potentially unlock opportunities, but their recent form is a red flag. The draw, evaluated at a 32% probability, is an attractive bet with odds of 3.35 at LeoVegas, offering an 8% edge. Both teams to score sits at 50%, reflecting the fine balance in expected goals, but the under 2.5 goals market seems more appealing given the conditions and odds.

For those looking at the value in the bet, the under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with LeoVegas presents a 4% edge. It's a smart angle with the dampened play expected from Coventry's defensive setup and Sunderland's stuttering form, painting a picture of a likely low-scoring stalemate.

Coventry City

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #11xP/match #16Points #17

Key players

Sidiki CherifFxG 0.21 · xT 0.02
Milan Van EwijkRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Bobby ThomasCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.13

Sunderland

Form DLLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #16xP/match #18Points #20

Key players

Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
Enzo Le FéeCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.14
Nordi MukieleRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Coventry City – Sunderland

Predicted score matrix

Sunderland →

Coventry City →

0–09.2%

0–110.4%

0–26.6%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.1%

1–010.2%

1–113.4%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.4%

2–17.8%

2–24.8%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.5%

3–13.1%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,20–1,23

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.91EV+7%

Over 2,544%

@1.91

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sunderland or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sunderland or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Christopher John Rigg to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Solomon Brandon Michael Clarke Thomas-Asante to score23%
Reinildo Isnard Mandava to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.35LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Coventry City	X	2 · Sunderland
Betsafe	2.75	EV+ 10% 3.40	2.50
LeoVegas	2.75	EV+ 8% 3.35	2.50
Nordicbet	2.78	EV+ 10% 3.40	2.50

Odds updated 25 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

10 %

37 %32 %

2.75 → 2.75

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.35

20 %

40 %35 %

2.50 → 2.50

Over 2,5+2 %

52 %47 %

1.85 → 1.88

LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Sunderland AFC have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Coventry City

Sunderland

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Coventry City (6–14)

Sunderland (6–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Coventry City

Sunderland

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Coventry City

Sunderland

The teams in numbers

Performance	Coventry City	Sunderland
Points	6	4
xPoints	8.3	7.1
xG per match	1	1.2
xGA per match	1.7	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.26

Playing style	Coventry City	Sunderland
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.3
Field tilt	0.32	0.45
xT per match	0.89	0.87
xTA per match	1.1	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	24	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.28
Entries into the box per match	10	13
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.71	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.68
Passes per match	252	321
Passes against per match	499	348
Switches of play per match	20.3	24.9
Long balls per match	33	34

Set pieces	Coventry City	Sunderland
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	3.7	4.2
Corners against per match	4.8	4.1
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.62

Other	Coventry City	Sunderland
Throw-in control	0.76	0.68

The goalkeepers	Carl Rushworth (Coventry City)	Robin Roefs (Sunderland)
Saves	16	12
Save %	57%	46%
xG prevented	44%	37%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Coventry City

Fixtures, form & tips

Sunderland

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Coventry City vs Sunderland according to our model?

The model gives Sunderland a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Coventry City 33%, draw 32%, Sunderland 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Coventry City vs Sunderland?

The model expects 1.20 goals (xG) for Coventry City and 1.23 for Sunderland, 2.43 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Coventry City or draw (1X) 65%, Sunderland or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 68%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.